Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve Under Model Uncertainty

Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve Under Model Uncertainty
Author: Francesco Donati
Publisher:
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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We propose a methodology that permits to investigate and forecast the behavior of a variable and its determinants in real time, both in the time and in the frequency domain, starting from a model designed in the time domain, which makes the presentation and evaluation of the results straightforward. This paper applies the methodology to the yield curve. We extract all the shocks affecting the forward rates and the yields and we divide them into three disjoint classes: 1) long-run shocks giving rise to possibly permanent effects, 2) medium-run forces and 3) short-run forces giving rise to transitory effects. These forces drive the low-, medium- and high-frequency component, respectively, composing the time series of the variables used in the model. We explicitly model and estimate such cause-and-effect relationships. The analysis of the shocks and the frequency components provides a timely and comprehensive overview of the nature of the movements in the yields. Furthermore, using the forecast of the frequency components to forecast the yields enhances forecast accuracy, also at long prediction horizons. To perform the frequency decompositions, to identify the forces governing the evolution of the model variables, and to perform the out-of-sample forecasts we use a dynamic filter whose embedded feedback control corrects for model uncertainty.

Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting

Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 223
Release: 2013-01-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691146802

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Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.

Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Michiel De Pooter
Publisher:
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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We assess the relevance of parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and macroeconomic information for forecasting the term structure of interest rates. We study parameter uncertainty by comparing Bayesian inference with frequentist estimation techniques, and model uncertainty by combining forecasts from individual models. We incorporate macroeconomic information in yield curve models by extracting common factors from a large panel of macro series. Our results show that accounting for parameter uncertainty does not improve the forecast performance of individual models. The predictive accuracy of single models varies over time considerably and we demonstrate that mitigating model uncertainty by combining forecasts leads to substantial gains in predictability. Combining forecasts using a weighting method that is based on relative historical performance results in highly accurate forecasts. The gains in terms of forecast performance are substantial, especially for longer maturities, and are consistent over time. In addition, we find that adding macroeconomic factors generally is beneficial for improving out-of-sample forecasts.

Forecasting Financial Time Series Using Model Averaging

Forecasting Financial Time Series Using Model Averaging
Author: Francesco Ravazzolo
Publisher: Rozenberg Publishers
Total Pages: 198
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN: 9051709145

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Believing in a single model may be dangerous, and addressing model uncertainty by averaging different models in making forecasts may be very beneficial. In this thesis we focus on forecasting financial time series using model averaging schemes as a way to produce optimal forecasts. We derive and discuss in simulation exercises and empirical applications model averaging techniques that can reproduce stylized facts of financial time series, such as low predictability and time-varying patterns. We emphasize that model averaging is not a "magic" methodology which solves a priori problems of poorly forecasting. Averaging techniques have an essential requirement: individual models have to fit data. In the first section we provide a general outline of the thesis and its contributions to previ ous research. In Chapter 2 we focus on the use of time varying model weight combinations. In Chapter 3, we extend the analysis in the previous chapter to a new Bayesian averaging scheme that models structural instability carefully. In Chapter 4 we focus on forecasting the term structure of U.S. interest rates. In Chapter 5 we attempt to shed more light on forecasting performance of stochastic day-ahead price models. We examine six stochastic price models to forecast day-ahead prices of the two most active power exchanges in the world: the Nordic Power Exchange and the Amsterdam Power Exchange. Three of these forecasting models include weather forecasts. To sum up, the research finds an increase of forecasting power of financial time series when parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and optimal decision making are included.

Building and Using Dynamic Interest Rate Models

Building and Using Dynamic Interest Rate Models
Author: Ken O. Kortanek
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 248
Release: 2001-11-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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This book offers a new approach to interest rate and modeling term structure by using models based on optimization of dynamical systems, rather than the traditional stochastic differential equation models. The authors use dynamic models to estimate the term structure of interest rates and show the reader how to build their own numerical simulations. It includes software that will enable readers to simulate the various models covered in the book.

Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty

Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty
Author: David E. Rapach
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 691
Release: 2008-02-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1849505403

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Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.

Modelling the Yield Curve

Modelling the Yield Curve
Author: Mr.Mark P. Taylor
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 38
Release: 1991-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145193145X

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We test and estimate a variety of alternative models of the yield curve, using weekly, high-quality U.K. data. We extend the Campbell-Shiller technique to the overlapping data case and apply it to reject the pure expectations hypothesis under rational expectations. We also find that risk measures, in the form of conditional interest rate volatility, are unable to explain the term premium. A simple, market segmentation approach is, however, moderately successful in explaining the term premium.

Developments in Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modelling

Developments in Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modelling
Author: Jagjit S. Chadha
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 571
Release: 2014-02-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1107662559

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Changes in the shape of the yield curve have traditionally been one of the key macroeconomic indicators of a likely change in economic outlook. However, the recent financial crises have created a challenge to the management of monetary policy, demanding a revision in the way that policymakers model expected changes in the economy. This volume brings together central bank economists and leading academic monetary economists to propose new methods for modelling the behaviour of interest rates. Topics covered include: the analysis and extraction of expectations of future monetary policy and inflation; the analysis of the short-term dynamics of money market interest rates; the reliability of existing models in periods of extreme market volatility and how to adjust them accordingly; and the role of government debt and deficits in affecting sovereign bond yields and spreads. This book will interest financial researchers and practitioners as well as academic and central bank economists.