Model Uncertainty. Learning, and the Gains from Coordination

Model Uncertainty. Learning, and the Gains from Coordination
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 38
Release: 1988-12-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451943148

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The paper considers gains from international economic policy coordination when there is uncertainty concerning the functioning of the world economy, but also learning about the “true” model on the part of policymakers. The paper reports estimates of plausible alternative versions of a standard, two-country model. Activist policy (either coordinated or uncoordinated) may produce large welfare losses in the absence of learning, if policymakers believe in the wrong model; hence exogenous money targets and freely flexible exchange rates may be best. However, model learning (from observations on macroeconomic variables) causes coordinated policies to dominate activist uncoordinated policies or exogenous money targets.

Model Uncertainty, Learning, and the Gains from Coordination

Model Uncertainty, Learning, and the Gains from Coordination
Author: Atish R. Ghosh
Publisher:
Total Pages: 38
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

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The paper considers gains from international economic policy coordination when there is uncertainty concerning the functioning of the world economy, but also learning about the quot;truequot; model on the part of policymakers. The paper reports estimates of plausible alternative versions of a standard, two-country model. Activist policy (either coordinated or uncoordinated) may produce large welfare losses in the absence of learning, if policymakers believe in the wrong model; hence exogenous money targets and freely flexible exchange rates may be best. However, model learning (from observations on macroeconomic variables) causes coordinated policies to dominate activist uncoordinated policies or exogenous money targets.

Understanding Interdependence

Understanding Interdependence
Author: Peter B. Kenen
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 566
Release: 2021-06-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691231133

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Drawing together new papers by some of today's leading figures in international economics and finance, Understanding Interdependence surveys the current state of knowledge on the international monetary system and, by implication, defines the research horizon for the future. Covering topics including the behavior of exchange rates, the choice of exchange-rate regime, current-account adjustment in classical and Keynesian models, the extent and effects of capital mobility, international debt, the stabilization and reform of the formerly planned economies, European monetary union, and international policy coordination, the book underscores the importance of these subjects and identifies lessons for policymakers. The contributors to the volume are Michael Bruno, Ralph C. Bryant, Richard N. Cooper, Michael P. Dooley, Barry Eichengreen, Stanley Fischer, Charles A. E. Goodhart, Peter Hooper, Peter B. Kenen, Paul R. Krugman, Henri Lorie, Jaime Marquez, Ronald I. McKinnon, Michael Mussa, Maurice Obstfeld, John Odling-Smee, Assaf Razin, Dani Rodrik, Mark P. Taylor, and John Williamson.

An Open Economy Macroeconomics Reader

An Open Economy Macroeconomics Reader
Author: Mehmet Ugur
Publisher: Psychology Press
Total Pages: 568
Release: 2002
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780415253314

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This book draws together the seminal contributions to the literature on the nature of macroeconomics in open economies and illuminates the material. This is an essential guide to the subject for students.

Currencies, Crises, Fiscal Policy, and Coordination

Currencies, Crises, Fiscal Policy, and Coordination
Author: Paul R. Masson
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 355
Release: 2011
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 981435015X

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This volume provides an integrated compilation of selected major articles published by the author in several fields of international finance. These include contributions to the understanding of currency crises and financial contagion, the evolution of exchange rate regimes, the interaction between national fiscal policies and regional monetary unions, and the effect of uncertainty on the gains from international economic policy coordination. The author spent most of his career doing research at established institutions (the Bank of Canada, OECD, and IMF), and these articles emerged from the need to understand the major economic policy issues of the day. In the book's introduction, the author discusses the motivation for these contributions and the unifying themes that emerged, while a concluding chapter provides his personal reflections and suggestions about promising avenues for further research.

Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty, Second Edition

Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty, Second Edition
Author: Richard T. Froyen
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 466
Release: 2019
Genre: Mathematical optimization
ISBN: 1784717193

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This book provides a thorough survey of the model-based literature on optimal monetary in a stochastic setting. The survey begins with the literature of the 1970s which focused on the information problem in policy design and extends to the New Keynesian approach of the 1990s which centered on evaluating alternative targeting strategies. New to the second edition is consideration of research since the world financial crisis on the role of financial markets and institutions in the conduct of monetary policy.

A Guide to Modern Economics

A Guide to Modern Economics
Author: Michael Bleaney
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 710
Release: 1996-07-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 113476149X

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This work provides a valuable review of the most important developments in economic theory and application over the last decade. Comprising twenty-seven specially commissioned overviews, the volume presents a comprehensive and student-friendly guide to contemporary economics. Previously published by Routledge as part of the Companion to Contemporary Economic Thought, these essays are made available here for the first time in a concise paperback edition. A Guide to Modern Economics will be a valuable guide to all those who wish to familiarize themselves with the most recent developments in the discipline.

International Monetary Cooperation Among the United States, Japan, and Germany

International Monetary Cooperation Among the United States, Japan, and Germany
Author: Keisuke Iida
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 120
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1461551439

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International Monetary Cooperation among the United States, Japan, and Germany offers a first - and overdue - book- length study of counterproductive cooperation. It takes to task the critical importance of conducting systematic theory-guided empirical research to examine the validity of arguments that international monetary cooperation could be highly counterproductive. This book combines various methods - formal, quantitative, and qualitative - to study the theories of counterproductive monetary cooperation by focusing on the cooperative episodes among the major industrial countries - the United States, Japan, and Germany. For the first time, this book presents all theories of counterproductive cooperation in one place, subjects them to systematic, empirical scrutiny in the light of the experience of G-3 (U.S., Germany, and Japanese) cooperation since the 1970s, and suggests policy recommendations in the light of the findings.

IMF Staff papers

IMF Staff papers
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 196
Release: 1988-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145194702X

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It has been argued that “buy-backs” and “debt-equity swaps” allow developing countries to benefit from market discounts on their external debt. It is argued here, however, that if such programs are expected to be successful in increasing the market value of remaining debt, they also lead to a roughly equivalent increase in prices at which a buy-back or debt-equity swap could be carried out.

Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, and How to Overcome Them

Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, and How to Overcome Them
Author: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 2013-12-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475525184

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In bilateral and multilateral surveillance, countries are often urged to consider alternative policies that would result in superior outcomes for the country itself and, perhaps serendipitously, for the world economy. While it is possible that policy makers in the country do not fully recognize the benefits of proposed alternative policies, it is also possible that the existing policies are the best that they can deliver, given their various constraints, including political. In order for the policy makers to be able and willing to implement the better policies some quid pro quo may be required—such as a favorable policy adjustment in the recipients of the spillovers; identifying such mutually beneficial trades is the essence of international policy coordination. We see four general guideposts in terms of the search for globally desirable solutions. First, all parties need to identify the nature of spillovers from their policies and be open to making adjustments to enhance net positive spillovers in exchange for commensurate benefits from others; but second, with countries transparent about the spillovers as they see them, an honest broker is likely to be needed to scrutinize the different positions, given the inherent biases at the country level. Third, given the need for policy agendas to be multilaterally consistent, special scrutiny is needed when policies exacerbate global imbalances and currency misalignments; and fourth, by the same token, special scrutiny is also needed when one country’s policies has a perceptible adverse impact on financial-stability risks elsewhere.