MENA Quarterly Economic Brief January 2016

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief January 2016
Author: Shantayanan Devarajan
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2016-01-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464808228

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This issue of the World Bank MENA Quarterly Economic Brief expects growth in the Middle East and North Africa to fall to 2.6 percent in 2015, from 2.8 percent predicted in October. The short term outlook remains “cautiously pessimistic†?. The poor performance of several MENA economies and their dim prospects for the future are mainly driven by the civil wars that have created death, destruction and significant growth shortfalls in both conflict countries and their neighbors. This report examines the different ways in which civil wars affect the economies of the region, including the important channel of forced displacement, which has become a crisis. Moreover, we explore how economic fortunes will turn around if there is peace. The report concludes that under peace settlement, a permanent transition from non democracy to democracy could improve economic growth significantly in the long run.

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief January 2016

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief January 2016
Author: Shantayanan Devarajan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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The July 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and Permanent Members of the UN Security Council and Germany (P5+1), with the attendant lifting of sanctions on Iran, will have significant consequences for the global, regional and national economies. First, Iran's return to the oil market, coupled with increased production from Libya (should the conflict subside) will keep world oil prices low. Secondly, once sanctions and restrictions on financial transactions are relaxed, Iran's trade, which had both declined in absolute terms and shifted away from Europe towards Asia and the Middle East, is likely to pick up. Thirdly, the Iranian economy, which has been in recession for the past two years, will receive a major boost from increased oil revenues--conservatively estimated at about USD 15 billion in the first year--and lower trade costs. This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief (QEB) traces these effects on the world oil market, on Iran's trading partners, and on the Iranian economy.

Middle East and North Africa Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2014

Middle East and North Africa Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2014
Author: Shantayanan Devarajan
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2014-06-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464803943

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Ongoing regional tensions, together with a challenging (albeit slightly improving) external environment, have hit the economies of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region hard. Economic growth is slowing, fiscal buffers are depleting, unemployment is rising, and inflation is mounting in seven of the region’s most vulnerable economies-- Egypt, Tunisia, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen and Libya. Short-term policy actions such as increasing public sector wages and subsidies—aimed at reducing social tensions--exacerbate the situation, which is driven by long-standing structural weaknesses, including labor market rigidities, complicated and opaque regulations, infrastructure deficiencies, regressive and inefficient subsidies, and inadequate social safety nets. While these countries face an unstable political and macroeconomic environment, the growth slowdown after the Arab Spring creates a unique opportunity to address these structural problems to both create fiscal space and restructure the economy towards job creation and inclusive growth.

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, July 2015

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, July 2015
Author: Shantayanan Devarajan
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2015
Genre: Iran
ISBN: 1464807027

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Iran and the Permanent Members of the UN Security Council and Germany (P5+1) reached a deal on July 14, 2015 that limits Iranian nuclear activity in return for lifting all international sanctions that were placed on Iran (Box 1). This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief (QEB) traces the economic effects of this development--removing sanctions on Iran--on the world oil market, on Iran's trading partners, and on the Iranian economy.

Middle East and North Africa Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2015

Middle East and North Africa Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2015
Author: Shantayanan Devarajan
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2015-01-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464805385

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In the three months since most observers, including the World Bank, issued their last forecasts, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region has changed substantially. Political tensions have eased somewhat with presidential and legislative elections completed in a few countries. Egypt’s cabinet approved the electoral constituencies’ law, the last step before calling for the House of Representatives elections, the final milestone in the political roadmap initiated in July 2013. Presidential elections were held in Tunisia, with Beji Caid Essebsi sworn in as the new president in December. Iran’s nuclear talks with the P5+1 were extended for 6 months--while bilateral talks continue—with the aim of reaching a deal in July 2015. In Iraq, the government and the Kurdish region reached an agreement in December resolving a longstanding dispute over the budget and distribution of oil revenues. Meanwhile, Lebanon, Yemen and Libya still struggle to maintain a functional government. The global economy is estimated to have expanded by 2.6 percent (q/q annualized rate), better than the second quarter of 2014, but unchanged from the slow pace seen in 2012 and 2013. But the most important development is that international oil prices have literally collapsed, reaching a level below $50 per barrel (Brent crude) in early January, a drop of 50 percent since their peak in mid-June 2014.

Middle East and North Africa Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2015

Middle East and North Africa Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2015
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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In the three months since most observers, including the World Bank, issued their last forecasts, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region has changed substantially. Political tensions have eased somewhat with presidential and legislative elections completed in a few countries. Egypt's cabinet approved the electoral constituencies' law, the last step before calling for the House of Representatives elections, the final milestone in the political roadmap initiated in July 2013. Presidential elections were held in Tunisia, with Beji Caid Essebsi sworn in as the new president in December. Iran's nuclear talks with the P5+1 were extended for 6 months--while bilateral talks continueâ€" with the aim of reaching a deal in July 2015. In Iraq, the government and the Kurdish region reached an agreement in December resolving a longstanding dispute over the budget and distribution of oil revenues. Meanwhile, Lebanon, Yemen and Libya still struggle to maintain a functional government. The global economy is estimated to have expanded by 2.6 percent (q/q annualized rate), better than the second quarter of 2014, but unchanged from the slow pace seen in 2012 and 2013. But the most important development is that international oil prices have literally collapsed, reaching a level below

MENA's Forced Displacement Crisis

MENA's Forced Displacement Crisis
Author: Lili Mottaghi
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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The latest MENA Quarterly Economic Brief estimates growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region to fall short of expectation at 2.6 percent in 2015, about 0.2 percentage points below the October 2015 forecast. The World Bank expects the economic outlook to remain “cautiously pessimistic” in the short term. The recent poor performance of several MENA economies, and their dim prospects for the future, are partly driven by the civil wars that have created death, destruction and significant growth shortfalls in both conflict countries; Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya and their neighbors. This Quick Note summarizes the findings of the report including the important channel of forced displacement, which has become a crisis.Overall, millions of Syrians, Iraqis, Yemenis and Libyans have been forced to flee their homes or displaced with in the country. They are in need of urgent humanitarian and financial assistance. According to the United Nations (U.N.) for Syria only, it will take US 7.7 billion dollars to meet the urgent needs of the most vulnerable people in 2016.

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor April 2016

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor April 2016
Author: Shantayanan Devarajan
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 70
Release: 2016-04-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464809070

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The short term economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remains “cautiously pessimistic†?. A combination of civil wars and refugee inflows, terrorist attacks, cheap oil, and subdued global economic recovery is expected to keep average growth in the MENA region around 3 percent in 2016, for the fourth year in a row. Furthermore, the humanitarian and economic situation in the war torn countries keep deteriorating. In this report we will explore ways in which a strategy of reconstruction of Syria—the most war-ravaged country in the region—could help foster a sustainable peace. This report argues that the impact of the civil war on the Syrian society will be persistent, and the challenges facing the country need to be addressed now. The report calls for the international community to be the guarantor of an inclusive reconstruction strategy that not only makes peace sustainable tomorrow, but makes it happen today: peace and reconstruction are two sides of the same coin.