Measurement Of The Output Gap
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Author | : Mr.Jiaqian Chen |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 28 |
Release | : 2020-02-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 151352786X |
Download Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Author | : Pierre St.-Amant |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 62 |
Release | : 1997 |
Genre | : Banks and banking |
ISBN | : 9780662260196 |
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This paper discusses some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. The first group of methods considered are those that simply use some implicit or explicit assumptions about the dynamics of real output to identify the output gap, including the Hodrick and Prescott filter for identifying the cyclical component of output. The second group consists of approaches that combine their assumptions with information from assumed or structural relationships between the output gap and other economic variables. The third class of methods uses multivariate rather than univariate dynamic relationships, often in combination with structural relationships from economic theory, to estimate output gap as a particular transitory component of real output.
Author | : Ali Alichi |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 17 |
Release | : 2015-06-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513523465 |
Download A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Author | : Jamie P. Murray |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 54 |
Release | : 2014 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Download Output Gap Measurement Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Author | : Iris Claus |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 72 |
Release | : 2000 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Download The Output Gap Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Author | : Athanasios Orphanides |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 39 |
Release | : 1999 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Errors in the Measurement of the Output Gap and the Design of Monetaru Policy Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Author | : Mr.Niels-Jakob H Hansen |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 23 |
Release | : 2019-08-02 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513511130 |
Download Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Output gap estimates are widely used to inform macroeconomic policy decisions, including in Korea. The main determinant of these estimates is the measure of labor market slack. The traditional measure of unemployment in Korea yields an incomplete estimate of labor market slack, given that many workers prefer involuntary part-time jobs or leaving the labor force rather than registering as unemployed. This paper discusses a way in which the measure of unemployment can be broadened to yield a more accurate measure of labor market slack. This broader measure is then used to estimate the output gap using a multivariate filter, yielding a more meaningful measure of the output gap.
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 39 |
Release | : 2010-12-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1455210927 |
Download Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.
Author | : Michal Andrle |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 45 |
Release | : 2013-05-10 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484399552 |
Download What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.
Author | : Anthony Garratt |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 19 |
Release | : 2010 |
Genre | : Industrial productivity |
ISBN | : |
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