Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?

Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?
Author: Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2020-02-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 151352786X

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We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.

Measurement of the Output Gap

Measurement of the Output Gap
Author: Pierre St.-Amant
Publisher:
Total Pages: 62
Release: 1997
Genre: Banks and banking
ISBN: 9780662260196

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This paper discusses some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. The first group of methods considered are those that simply use some implicit or explicit assumptions about the dynamics of real output to identify the output gap, including the Hodrick and Prescott filter for identifying the cyclical component of output. The second group consists of approaches that combine their assumptions with information from assumed or structural relationships between the output gap and other economic variables. The third class of methods uses multivariate rather than univariate dynamic relationships, often in combination with structural relationships from economic theory, to estimate output gap as a particular transitory component of real output.

A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States

A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States
Author: Ali Alichi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 17
Release: 2015-06-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513523465

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The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.

Output Gap Measurement

Output Gap Measurement
Author: Jamie P. Murray
Publisher:
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2014
Genre: Business cycles
ISBN:

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The Output Gap

The Output Gap
Author: Iris Claus
Publisher:
Total Pages: 72
Release: 2000
Genre: Business cycles
ISBN:

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Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea

Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea
Author: Mr.Niels-Jakob H Hansen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2019-08-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513511130

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Output gap estimates are widely used to inform macroeconomic policy decisions, including in Korea. The main determinant of these estimates is the measure of labor market slack. The traditional measure of unemployment in Korea yields an incomplete estimate of labor market slack, given that many workers prefer involuntary part-time jobs or leaving the labor force rather than registering as unemployed. This paper discusses a way in which the measure of unemployment can be broadened to yield a more accurate measure of labor market slack. This broader measure is then used to estimate the output gap using a multivariate filter, yielding a more meaningful measure of the output gap.

Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter

Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2010-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455210927

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This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.

What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables

What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables
Author: Michal Andrle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2013-05-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484399552

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This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.

Measuring output gap uncertainty

Measuring output gap uncertainty
Author: Anthony Garratt
Publisher:
Total Pages: 19
Release: 2010
Genre: Industrial productivity
ISBN:

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