Mathematical Modeling in the Age of the Pandemic

Mathematical Modeling in the Age of the Pandemic
Author: William P. Fox
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 174
Release: 2021-06-09
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1000395022
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One cannot watch or read about the news these days without hearing about the models for COVID-19 or the testing that must occur to approve vaccines or treatments for the disease. The purpose of Mathematical Modeling in the Age of a Pandemic is to shed some light on the meaning and interpretations of many of the types of models that are or might be used in the presentation of analysis. Understanding the concepts presented is essential in the entire modeling process of a pandemic. From the virus itself and its infectious rates and deaths rates to explain the process for testing a vaccine or eventually a cure, the author builds, presents, and shows model testing. This book is an attempt, based on available data, to add some validity to the models developed and used, showing how close to reality the models are to predicting "results" from previous pandemics such as the Spanish flu in 1918 and more recently the Hong Kong flu. Then the author applies those same models to Italy, New York City, and the United States as a whole. Modeling is a process. It is essential to understand that there are many assumptions that go into the modeling of each type of model. The assumptions influence the interpretation of the results. Regardless of the modeling approach the results generally indicate approximately the same results. This book reveals how these interesting results are obtained.

Quality of Work-Life During Pandemic

Quality of Work-Life During Pandemic
Author: Gitanjali Rahul Shinde
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 127
Release: 2021-11-22
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 9811675236
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This book is focused on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on different sectors, i.e., education, real estate, health, and agriculture. The lockdown has been announced to control the spread of COVID-19 infections, however people/industries/organizations were not ready for lockdown and it has greatly affected their growth. The front workers in the healthcare sector suffered a lot as major responsibilities they needed to carry on. The education sector is also hampered due to the pandemic as schools, colleges were closed and teaching, examinations were carried out on online platforms. These platforms were new to teachers as well as students. The real estate sector faced tremendous loss in this pandemic as people were scared and no one ready to invest their money in such an uncertain time. The agriculture filed is also suffered as raw materials required for agriculture were not available readily due to pandemic. This book presents a survey that is conducted to understand the impact of COVID-19 on the quality of work-life in various sectors. The survey is focused majorly on four sectors, i.e. education, healthcare, real estate and agriculture. Data analysis is done based on responses of survey and mathematical modeling is provided for each case study.

Mathematics of Public Health

Mathematics of Public Health
Author: V. Kumar Murty
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 349
Release: 2022-02-08
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3030850536
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Curated by the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences from their COVID-19 Math Modelling Seminars, this first in a series of volumes on the mathematics of public health allows readers to access the dominant ideas and techniques being used in this area, while indicating problems for further research. This work brings together experts in mathematical modelling from across Canada and the world, presenting the latest modelling methods as they relate to the COVID-19 pandemic. A primary aim of this book is to make the content accessible so that researchers share the core methods that may be applied elsewhere. The mathematical theories and technologies in this book can be used to support decision makers on critical issues such as projecting outbreak trajectories, evaluating public health interventions for infection prevention and control, developing optimal strategies to return to a new normal, and designing vaccine candidates and informing mass immunization program. Topical coverage includes: basic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) modelling framework modified and applied to COVID-19 disease transmission dynamics; nearcasting and forecasting for needs of critical medical resources including personal protective equipment (PPE); predicting COVID-19 mortality; evaluating effectiveness of convalescent plasma treatment and the logistic implementation challenges; estimating impact of delays in contact tracing; quantifying heterogeneity in contact mixing and its evaluation with social distancing; modelling point of care diagnostics of COVID-19; and understanding non-reporting and underestimation. Further, readers will have the opportunity to learn about current modelling methodologies and technologies for emerging infectious disease outbreaks, pandemic mitigation rapid response, and the mathematics behind them. The volume will help the general audience and experts to better understand the important role that mathematics has been playing during this on-going crisis in supporting critical decision-making by governments and public health agencies.

Mathematical Epidemiology

Mathematical Epidemiology
Author: Fred Brauer
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 415
Release: 2008-04-30
Genre: Medical
ISBN: 3540789103
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Based on lecture notes of two summer schools with a mixed audience from mathematical sciences, epidemiology and public health, this volume offers a comprehensive introduction to basic ideas and techniques in modeling infectious diseases, for the comparison of strategies to plan for an anticipated epidemic or pandemic, and to deal with a disease outbreak in real time. It covers detailed case studies for diseases including pandemic influenza, West Nile virus, and childhood diseases. Models for other diseases including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, fox rabies, and sexually transmitted infections are included as applications. Its chapters are coherent and complementary independent units. In order to accustom students to look at the current literature and to experience different perspectives, no attempt has been made to achieve united writing style or unified notation. Notes on some mathematical background (calculus, matrix algebra, differential equations, and probability) have been prepared and may be downloaded at the web site of the Centre for Disease Modeling (www.cdm.yorku.ca).

Moving From COVID-19 Mathematical Models to Vaccine Design: Theory, Practice and Experiences

Moving From COVID-19 Mathematical Models to Vaccine Design: Theory, Practice and Experiences
Author: Andrés Fraguela-Collar
Publisher: Bentham Science Publishers
Total Pages: 583
Release: 2022-09-05
Genre: Medical
ISBN: 9815051911
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This compendium represents a set of guides to understanding the challenging scientific, epidemiological, clinical, social, and economic phenomenon that is represented by the COVID-19 pandemic. The book explains the mathematical modeling of COVID-19 infection, with emphasis on traditional epidemiological principles. It represents a rigorous, comprehensive and multidisciplinary approach to a complex phenomenon. The chapters take into account the knowledge arising from different disciplines (epidemiology, pathophysiology, immunology, medicine, biology, vaccine development, etc.). It also covers COVID-19 data analysis, giving the reader a perspective of statistics and data science, and includes a discussion about social and economic issues of the pandemic. Each chapter is devoted to a specific topic, and is contributed by experts in epidemiology. Because of its multidisciplinary nature, this book is intended as a reference on mathematical models and basic immunotherapy for COVID-19 for a broad community of readers, from scholars who have scientific training, to general readers who have an interest in the disease.

Mathematical Modeling and Intelligent Control for Combating Pandemics

Mathematical Modeling and Intelligent Control for Combating Pandemics
Author: Zakia Hammouch
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 278
Release: 2023-09-11
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3031331834
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The contributions in this carefully curated volume, present cutting-edge research in applied mathematical modeling for combating COVID-19 and other potential pandemics. Mathematical modeling and intelligent control have emerged as powerful computational models and have shown significant success in combating any pandemic. These models can be used to understand how COVID-19 or other pandemics can spread, analyze data on the incidence of infectious diseases, and predict possible future scenarios concerning pandemics. This book also discusses new models, practical solutions, and technological advances related to detecting and analyzing COVID-19 and other pandemics based on intelligent control systems that assist decision-makers, managers, professionals, and researchers. Much of the book focuses on preparing the scientific community for the next pandemic, particularly the application of mathematical modeling and intelligent control for combating the Monkeypox virus and Langya Henipavirus.

Predictive Mathematical Models of the Covid–19 pandemic in ODE/SDE framework

Predictive Mathematical Models of the Covid–19 pandemic in ODE/SDE framework
Author: Marcello Colozzo
Publisher: Passerino Editore
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2020-10-05
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN:
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This article proposes a viral diffusion model (like Covid-19 pandemic) in the ordinary differential equations (ODE) and stochastic differential equations (SDE) framework. The classic models based on the logistic map are analyzed, and then a noise term is introduced that models the behavior of the so-called "deniers". This model fairly faithfully reproduces the Italian situation in today’s period. We then move on to local analysis, arriving at an equation of continuity for what concerns the density of the number of infected in an assigned region. We, therefore, prove a Theorem according to which classical logistics is the most catastrophic of predictions. In a realistic scenario, it is necessary to take into account the inevitable fluctuations in the aforementioned density. This implies a fragmentation of the initial cluster (generated by "patient zero") into an N disjoint sub clusters. For very large N, statistical analysis suggests the use of the two-point correlation function (and more generally, n-points). In principle, an estimate of this function makes it possible to determine the evolution of the pandemic. The distribution of the sub clusters could be fractal, exactly as it happens for the distribution of galaxies starting from a homogeneous and isotropic primordial universe, but with random fluctuations in matter density. This is not surprising, since due to the invariance in scale, fractals have a low "computational cost". The idea that pandemics are cyclical processes, that is, they occur with a given periodicity, would therefore remain corroborated. Marcello Colozzo, laureato in Fisica si occupa sin dal 2008 di didattica online di Matematica e Fisica attraverso il sito web Extra Byte dove vengono eseguite "simulazioni" nell'ambiente di calcolo Mathematica. Negli ultimi anni ha pubblicato vari articoli di fisica matematica e collabora con la rivista Elettronica Open Source. Appassionato lettore di narrativa cyberpunk, ha provato ad eseguire una transizione verso lo stato di "scrittore cyber", pubblicando varie antologie di racconti.

Mathematical Modeling, Simulations, and AI for Emergent Pandemic Diseases

Mathematical Modeling, Simulations, and AI for Emergent Pandemic Diseases
Author: Esteban A. Hernandez-Vargas
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 352
Release: 2023-03-21
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 0323950655
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Mathematical Modeling, Simulations, and Artificial Intelligence for Emergent Pandemic Diseases: Lessons Learned from COVID-19 includes new research, models and simulations developed during the COVID-19 pandemic into how mathematical methods and practice can impact future response. Chapters go beyond forecasting COVID-19, bringing different scale angles and mathematical techniques (e.g., ordinary differential and difference equations, agent-based models, artificial intelligence, and complex networks) which could have potential use in modeling other emergent pandemic diseases. A major part of the book focuses on preparing the scientific community for the next pandemic, particularly the application of mathematical modeling in ecology, economics and epidemiology. Readers will benefit from learning how to apply advanced mathematical modeling to a variety of topics of practical interest, including optimal allocations of masks and vaccines but also more theoretical problems such as the evolution of viral variants. Provides a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art in mathematical modeling and computational simulations for emerging pandemics Presents modeling techniques that go beyond COVID-19, and that can be applied to tailoring interventions to attenuate high death tolls Includes illustrations, tables and dialog boxes to explain highly specialized concepts and insights with complex algorithms, along with links to programming code