The Changing Structure of the World Oil Industry

The Changing Structure of the World Oil Industry
Author: David Hawdon
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 163
Release: 2017-09-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1351388533

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Originally published in 1985 by a group of international experts and oil industry officials, this book surveys the dramatic changes which took place in the oil industry in the second half of the twentieth century. It discusses the role of OPEC and the long term impact its decisions had for both producers and oil consumers and examines possible future trends in the oil industry structure and stability, together with the possible consequences for North Sea oil and gas development.

The Shift in Global Crude Oil Market Structure

The Shift in Global Crude Oil Market Structure
Author: Istemi Berk
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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The global crude oil market has gone through two important phases over the recent years. The first one was the price collapse that started in the third quarter of 2014 and continued until mid-2016. The second phase occurred in late 2016, after major producers within and outside OPEC agreed to cut production in order to adjust the ongoing fall in oil prices, which is now known as the OPEC+ agreement. This paper analyzes the effects of these recent developments on the market structure and on the behavior of major producers in the market. To this end, we develop a partial equilibrium model with a spatial structure for the global crude oil market and simulate the market for the period between 2013 and 2017 under oligopolistic, cartel and perfectly competitive market structure setups. The simulation results reveal that, although the oligopolistic market structures fit overall well to the realized market outcomes, they are not successful at explaining the low prices during 2015 and 2016, which instead are closer to estimated competitive levels. Moreover, we further suggest that from 2014 onward, the market power potential of major suppliers has shrunk considerably, supporting the view that the market has become more competitive. We also analyze the Saudi Arabia- and Russia-led OPEC+ agreement, and find that planned production cuts in 2017, particularly of Saudi Arabia (486 thousand barrels/day) and Russia (300 thousand barrels/day), were below the levels of estimated non-competitive market structure setups. This explains why the oil prices did not recover to pre-2014 levels although a temporary adjustment was observed in 2017.

Oil Economics and Policy

Oil Economics and Policy
Author: Alberto Clo
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 269
Release: 2013-03-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475760612

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In 20th century society, oil has played a fundamental role not only from the economic point of view, but also from the point of view of the political relationships established between major Western countries and oil-producing countries. A survey into oil history, its market dynamics and price evolution, is essential for a deeper understanding of modern industry and world economy, as world development depends on oil supplies, prices, and its political accessibility. Oil Economics and Policy follows the historical development of the oil industry, and inevitably also covers many aspects of energy resource economy. In so doing, it pays particular attention to one aspect, namely, the fixing of oil prices. This is mainly in order to attempt to understand whether, and by how much, the structural transformations that the oil industry has undergone during the various phases of its existence - and the various market structures deriving from them - have influenced the dynamics of oil prices. Alberto Clô is Professor of Industrial Economics at the University of Bologna. Minister of Industry and Trade during Lamberto Dini's government (January 1995-May 1996), he has been a member both of national and international scientific boards and of ministerial committees. He is author of numerous writings on industrial and energy economies and editor-in-chief of the journal Energia.

Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Oil Prices and the Global Economy
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2017-01-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475572360

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This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Trading and Price Discovery for Crude Oils

Trading and Price Discovery for Crude Oils
Author: Adi Imsirovic
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 262
Release: 2021-05-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030717186

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This is a book about the international oil market. It takes a historical perspective on how the market emerged, developed, and became what it is today—the biggest commodity market in the world. It is mature and complex, but far from perfect. Throughout most of its 150-year history, the oil market has been monopolised by companies and governments. For only a fraction of that, oil traded in a relatively free market. As a result, we had to live with ‘big oil’, economic shocks, high oil prices, instability and wars. Using a simple concept of market power, this book will explain the meaning of ‘oil price’ and how it is established while offering a valuable lesson for other commodities. Market power is the key to understanding the ‘price of oil’. This book uses a simple concept of price-makers and price-takers to examine the evolution of oil markets, their structure, and prices. The early decades of the oil industry were competitive with low barriers to entry. Barely 25 years later, the Standard Oil company created a refining monopoly, buying oil at its own ‘posted’ price. In the following century, the cartel of major oil companies, helped by their governments, did the same at the international level. OPEC helped producing governments regain control of their own resources, but the organisation was never able to retain a similar level of control. After 1986 price collapse, OPEC abdicated the price-making function in favour of the market. While it never gave up attempts to influence prices, OPEC had to link their official prices to one of the global oil benchmarks. Modern international oil markets function because of oil benchmarks such as Brent, WTI and Dubai. This book showcases: • How oil traders played a prominent role in development of the industry • How policies of consuming nations helped oil cartels • Why and how the US price of oil was negative • How AI has changed the way markets operate and the way in which the markets are likely to change in future This book explores how oil markets grew, functioned, and have occasionally failed to do their job. The ecosystem of derivatives or ‘paper barrels’ trading in far greater volume than physical oil plays a very important role in mitigating risk. With this core tenant, setting the ‘price of oil’ is explained in detail.

World Market Price of Oil

World Market Price of Oil
Author: Adalat Muradov
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 184
Release: 2019-04-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030114945

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This book develops new econometric models to analyze and forecast the world market price of oil. The authors construct ARIMA and Trend models to forecast oil prices, taking into consideration outside factors such as political turmoil and solar activity on the price of oil. Incorporating historical and contemporary market trends, the authors are able to make medium and long-term forecasting results. In the first chapter, the authors perform a broad spectrum analysis of the theoretical and methodological challenges of oil price forecasting. In the second chapter, the authors build and test the econometric models needed for the forecasts. The final chapter of the text brings together the conclusions they reached through applying the models to their research. This book will be useful to students in economics, particularly those in upper-level courses on forecasting and econometrics as well as to politicians and policy makers in oil-producing countries, oil importing countries, and relevant international organizations.