Management of Shock and Volatility Spillover Effects Across Equity Markets

Management of Shock and Volatility Spillover Effects Across Equity Markets
Author: DR. MOHD. ASIF KHAN
Publisher:
Total Pages: 13
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper analyzes own and cross shock-volatility spillover effect among the very well known three Asian Stock Exchange Markets namely India, Singapore and South Korea during boom period, global recession period and post recession period. We use a multivariate BEKK-GARCH model to identify the source and magnitude of spillovers. The empirical analysis showed that the markets exhibit strong own shock (ARCH) and volatility (GARCH) effects in all the above mentioned three periods while regarding cross market spillover effect, India is playing a leading role in transmission of both Shocks as well as Volatility effect to the Singapore and South Korea markets. Thus, the international investors need to consider this strong integration regarding shock and volatility effects which reduce potential gains from international portfolio.

Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets

Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets
Author: Lieven Baele
Publisher:
Total Pages: 54
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper investigates to what extent globalization and regional integration lead to increasing equity market interdependence. I focus on the case of Western Europe, as this region has gone through a unique period of economic, financial, and monetary integration. More specifically, I quantify the magnitude and time-varying nature of volatility spillovers from the aggregate European (EU) and US market to 13 local European equity markets. To account for time-varying integration, I allow the shock sensitivities to change through time by means of a regime-switching model. I find that these regime switches are both statistically and economically important. While both the EU and US shock spillover intensity has increased over the 1980s and 1990s, the rise is more pronounced for EU spillovers. In most countries, shock spillover intensities increased most strongly in the second half of 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Increased trade integration, equity market development, and low inflation are shown to have contributed to the increase in EU shock spillover intensity. Finally, I find some evidence for contagion from the US market to a number of local European equity markets during periods of high world market volatility. Keywords: Volatility Spillovers, Regime Switching, Contagion, EMU, Financial Integration.

Modelling Financial Time Series

Modelling Financial Time Series
Author: Stephen J. Taylor
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 297
Release: 2008
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9812770852

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This book contains several innovative models for the prices of financial assets. First published in 1986, it is a classic text in the area of financial econometrics. It presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models that are often used and cited in academic research and are applied by quantitative analysts in many banks. Another often-cited contribution of the first edition is the documentation of statistical characteristics of financial returns, which are referred to as stylized facts. This second edition takes into account the remarkable progress made by empirical researchers during the past two decades from 1986 to 2006. In the new Preface, the author summarizes this progress in two key areas: firstly, measuring, modelling and forecasting volatility; and secondly, detecting and exploiting price trends. Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1: Introduction (1,134 KB). Contents: Features of Financial Returns; Modelling Price Volatility; Forecasting Standard Deviations; The Accuracy of Autocorrelation Estimates; Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis; Forecasting Trends in Prices; Evidence Against the Efficiency of Futures Markets; Valuing Options; Appendix: A Computer Program for Modelling Financial Time Series. Readership: Academic researchers in finance & economics; quantitative analysts.

Volatility Spillover Effects Across Emerging Equity Markets of Pakistan, India, China and Bangladesh

Volatility Spillover Effects Across Emerging Equity Markets of Pakistan, India, China and Bangladesh
Author: Kashif Hamid
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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The purpose of this empirical study is to identify the Volatility Spillover Effects across Emerging Equity Markets of Pakistan, India, China and Bangladesh for the period of Jan 2000 to Dec 2015 on daily data basis. Historical volatility Granger Causality, Spillover Effect model, Multivariate GARCH-BEKK model and MGARCH-CCC is used for this purpose. It is concluded that large negative shifts in volatility occur more often than positive shifts in volatility and large changes occur often over this period and there exist strong triangular effect among KSE to BSE then BSE to SS and SS to KSE. Empirical evidence indicates that GARCH parameters capture the response of volatility in KSE, BSE, SS and DSE. However KSE to BSE have significant spillover effect and BSE has significant spillover effect to SS and DSE. It is evident from the results that markets own spillovers are greater than the cross-market spillovers.

Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?

Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?
Author: Ms.Camelia Minoiu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2013-12-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475554257

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The global financial crisis has reignited interest in models of crisis prediction. It has also raised the question whether financial connectedness - a possible source of systemic risk - can serve as an early warning indicator of crises. In this paper we examine the ability of connectedness in the global network of financial linkages to predict systemic banking crises. Our results indicate that increases in a country's financial interconnectedness and decreases in its neighbors' connectedness are associated with a higher probability of banking crises after controlling for macroeconomic fundamentals.

Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics

Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics
Author: Seungho Jung
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2021-10-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1557759677

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We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.

Volatility Spillover Across Major Equity Markets

Volatility Spillover Across Major Equity Markets
Author: Pardeep Singh
Publisher:
Total Pages: 13
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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Volatility spillover among major equity markets has long fascinated academicians and researchers alike. This paper presents an elaborate survey and analysis of the literature on the subject. Review of extant studies on various basis such as markets studied, methodology employed, among others has important implications for various stakeholders. We report that there has been wide variation in results because different studies have examined different markets using wide range of financial econometric methodologies. Some have considered only volatility or both volatility and spillover. Still others have incorporated the impact of global financial crisis on volatility spillover. Future researchers should examine if there is any volatility spillovers between various sectors of an economy, between different financial markets of the same economy, amongst same sectors of different markets, probe whether size effect is relevant, identify the transmission channels of volatility spillover, enumerate reasons behind volatility spillover, examine asymmetric volatility responses among stock markets and can use more advanced econometric techniques.

Shock Transmission and Volatility Spillover in Stock and Commodity Markets

Shock Transmission and Volatility Spillover in Stock and Commodity Markets
Author: Gulin Vardar
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper employs a VAR-BEKK GARCH model to examine the shock transmission and volatility spillover (STVS) effects among daily stock market indices of the US, UK, France, Germany, Japan, Turkey, China, South Korea, South Africa and India, together with the five major commodity spot price--crude oil, natural gas, platinum, silver and gold--over the period 05 July, 2005 and 14 October, 2016, i.e., covering the pre-crisis, crisis and post global financial crisis periods. In the full period, the primary trend in advanced and emerging countries is the bidirectional STVS effects between stock and the commodity returns. However, the results also illustrate relatively less unilateral STVS effects from the commodity to stock returns, but significant unilateral STVS effects from the stock returns to the commodity returns in advanced and emerging countries. We also find more cases of significant STVS effects between commodity and stock markets in all countries during the crisis and post-crisis periods compared to the pre-crisis period. Therefore, it indicates that STVS effects are the new normal for stock and commodity markets, despite the efforts of central banks during post-global crisis period. In practical terms, our findings suggest that resource allocation decision between stocks and commodities should involve the analysis of the direction of the STVS effects in particular stock/commodity markets and cycles of the global economy.

Asymmetric Volatility Spillover Effects Between Crude Oil and Other Financial Markets

Asymmetric Volatility Spillover Effects Between Crude Oil and Other Financial Markets
Author: Bo Guan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper uses a Multiplicative Error Model (MEM) framework to investigate the asymmetric volatility spillovers among four major global asset markets: stock, bond, gold, and crude oil. It provides evidence that those spillovers are influenced by different events and economic conditions that vary across time. It identifies markets that are net providers and net takers of spillovers in each market. Specifically, we find that the stock market is the net provider, while the bond and gold markets play a mixed role. We also show that the spillover effects are mostly negative for the stock and crude oil markets and mostly positive for the bond market. We further shed light on the role of safe-haven assets at times of market turmoil by showing that these assets can play a significant role in mitigating spillover effects and providing investors with hedging opportunities. These findings have important implications for investors, who are seeking to manage risks, and policymakers, who are interested in stabilizing the markets. Keywords: asymmetric volatility spillovers, global asset markets, Multiplicative Error Model (MEM), spillover balance index.

Asymmetric Cross-Market Volatility Spillovers

Asymmetric Cross-Market Volatility Spillovers
Author: Nicholas Apergis
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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We investigate cross-market volatility spillover effects across New York and London foreign exchange and equity markets. By using several daily data-sets, each relating to a different time of the day, and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity approach, the empirical analysis found volatility spillover effects (meteor shower effects) from the foreign exchange market in London and New York to the equity market in New York and London, respectively. By contrast, the results did not show volatility spillover effects from the equity markets to the foreign exchange markets across New York and London. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester.