Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets

Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2018-07-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484361490

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This paper assesses and disseminates experiences and lessons from low-income countries (LICs) in Sub-Saharan Africa that were selected by the Africa Department in 2015-16 as pilots for enhanced analysis of macro-financial linkages in Article IV staff reports. The paper focuses on the common characteristics across the pilot countries and highlights the tools used in the analysis, the challenges encountered, and the solutions deployed in overcoming them.

Ms. Muffet, the Spider(gram) and the Web of Macro-Financial Linkages

Ms. Muffet, the Spider(gram) and the Web of Macro-Financial Linkages
Author: Ricardo Cervantes
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2014-06-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498313116

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The global financial crisis has underscored the importance of understanding macro-financial developments and spillovers in an increasingly interconnected and intricate system. At the IMF, staff is focusing on the linkages between the real economy and the financial sector, as well as the inter-relationships between global and individual-country risks. The Country Financial Stability Map provides an empirical framework for explicitly linking these various aspects of the IMF’s surveillance of its member countries. It identifies potential sources of macro-financial risks particular to a country and also enables an assessment of these risks in a global context through comparisons with the corresponding Global Financial Stability Map from the Global Financial Stability Report. The authors have developed an Excel-based tool (“Ms. Muffet”) to facilitate this analysis, which may be replicated by external users with access to the necessary databases, using the accompanying template.

Frontiers of Macrofinancial Linkages

Frontiers of Macrofinancial Linkages
Author: Stijn Claessens
Publisher:
Total Pages: 191
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN: 9789292591236

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The Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09 confirmed the vital importance of advancing our understanding of macrofinancial linkages, the two-way interactions between the real economy and the financial sector. The crisis was a bitter reminder of how sharp fluctuations in asset prices, credit and capital flows can have dramatic impact on the financial positions of households, corporations and sovereign nations. As fluctuations were amplified, the global financial system was brought to the brink of collapse and the deepest contraction in world output in more than half a century followed. Moreover, unprecedented challenges for fiscal, monetary and financial regulatory policies resulted.The crisis revived an old debate in the economics profession about the importance of macrofinancial linkages. Some argue that the crisis was a painful reminder of our limited knowledge of these linkages. Others claim that the profession had already made substantial progress in understanding them but that there was too much emphasis on narrow approaches and modelling choices. Yet, most also recognise that the absence of a unifying framework to study these two-way interactions has limited the practical applications of existing knowledge and impeded the formulation of policies.With these observations in mind, this paper presents a systematic review of the rapidly expanding literature on macrofinancial linkages. It first surveys the literature on the linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes. It then reviews the literature on the macroeconomic implications of financial imperfections. It also examines the global dimensions of macrofinancial linkages and documents the main stylized facts about the linkages between the real economy and the financial sector. The topic of macrofinancial linkages promises to remain an exciting area of research, given the many open questions and significant policy interest. The paper concludes with a discussion of possible directions for future research, stressing the need for richer theoretical models, more robust empirical work and better quality data so as to advance knowledge and help guide policymakers going forward.

Macro-Finance Linkages

Macro-Finance Linkages
Author: James Morley
Publisher:
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this survey, I review the academic and policy-oriented literature on the linkages between financial markets and the rest of the economy. The survey begins with the leading economic theories for why the financial sector can influence the macroeconomy. Second, I consider the empirical research on spillovers from the financial sector to the rest of the economy, as well as across financial markets in different countries. Third, I discuss key policy debates surrounding macro-finance linkages. The survey concludes with a summary of major gaps in the existing literature.

Essays on Macro-financial Linkages

Essays on Macro-financial Linkages
Author: Thore Kockerols
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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The main theme of this thesis are macro-financial linkages. I covered three different questions related to this topic. In the first chapter Gaël Giraud and I develop a model for the Euro Area answering to many of the critiques of policy models before the Global Financial Crisis and with a focus on the interaction between the financial sector and the macroeconomy. The second and third chapter focus on behaviour of the financial sector in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis and its implications for the macroeconomy. Chapter 2 investigates the practice of forbearance towards stressed borrowers. The ultimately relevant question in this chapter is to what extend there is a feedback to the real economy due to this behaviour. Finally, the third chapter sheds light on an episode of manipulation in commodity markets. This alleged manipulation was apparently only possible due to the dominant market position banks took in the run up to the crisis and thereafter. Ultimately I quantify the effects of such behaviour and provide evidence of a structural change of the manipulated market during the period of alleged manipulation. The first chapter exploits a bank level dataset, whereas in chapter 2 and 3 I develop structural macroeconomic models. Especially the dynamical system model in the second chapter is an innovation. This class of models and more specifically a model of the size we develop has never been estimated and subsequently used for policy analysis.

Comptes rendus.

Comptes rendus.
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 1960
Genre:
ISBN:

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Essays on Macro Financial Linkages

Essays on Macro Financial Linkages
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 142
Release: 2016
Genre: Banks and banking, Central
ISBN:

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The first chapter, joint with Dominik Thaler, is a New Keynesian model of how monetary policy can influence the risk-taking behaviour of banks. Lower interest rates change bank incentives, making them prefer riskier investments. This mechanism alters the tradeoff faced by the monetary authority, affecting optimal policy conduct. After estimating the model, we find that the monetary authority should react less aggressively to inflation, trading off more inflation volatility in exchange for less financial market distortions. The second chapter, written with Prof. Massimiliano Marcellino, investigates whether modelling parameter time variation and stochastic volatility improves the forecasts of three major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar. We find that modelling time-varying volatility significantly refines the estimation of forecast uncertainty through an accurate calibration of the entire forecast distribution at all forecast horizons. Similar empirical tools are employed in the third chapter, where I show that the inclusion of default risk and risk aversion measures improves the forecasts of key activity and banking indicators. The bulk of forecast improvement takes place during the 2001 and 2008 recessions, when credit constraints were arguably binding. A structural VAR further reveals that an unexpected credit spread increase in 2010 causes an output contraction that lasts for about two years, and explains up to 35% percent of output variation. The final project, joint with Sandra Eickmeier, Prof. Massimiliano Marcellino and Wolfgang Lemke, investigates the changing international transmission of financial shocks over 1971-2012. A time-varying parameter FAVAR shows that global financial shocks, measured as unexpected changes in a US financial condition index, strongly impact growth in the nine countries considered. In addition, financial shocks in 2008 explain approximately 20% of the GDP growth variation in the 9 countries, as opposed to an average of 5% percent before the crisis.

Macro-financial Linkages

Macro-financial Linkages
Author: Alexey Ponomarenko
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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