Long Term Macroeconomic Effects Of Climate Change A Cross Country Analysis
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| Author | : Matthew E. Kahn |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 59 |
| Release | : 2019-10-11 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513514598 |
Download Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.
| Author | : Mr.Sebastian Acevedo Mejia |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 40 |
| Release | : 2018-06-13 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484363027 |
Download The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact? Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.
| Author | : Matthew E. Kahn |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 59 |
| Release | : 2019-10-11 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513517236 |
Download Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.
| Author | : A. Girma |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 97 |
| Release | : 2012 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Impact of Climate Change on Long-run Economic Growth: Cross-country Growth Regression Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Using historical data for annual temperature and precipitation for 166 sample countries, we assessed the impact of climate change on long-run economic growth over a period 2003 to 2012. Our study addresses a general research question that “What is the impact of climate change on long-run economic growth?” In the first part of our analysis we conducted cross-sectional regressions of income per-capita against long-run average temperature and precipitation with appropriate explanatory variables in a Solow growth model. Despite the negative relationship between average temperature/precipitation and long-run level of income, in sum, our results confirm that there is no statistical significant effect of climate variability on the long-run level of income. Using Barro-type regression framework, our result on the cross-sectional relationship between mean temperature and growth rate shows that the growth rate of national income per capita falls 0.77% per degree Celsius rise in temperature. Our result also suggests that growth rate of national income per capita falls as a result of climate volatility. The regression result for effects of climate volatility shows that any deviation of temperature from its long-run average is associated with a reduction in GDP per capita growth of about 1.421 percentage points. A deviation of precipitation from its long-run average is associated with a statistically significant reduction in GDP per capita growth of about 1.051 percentage points. Therefore, our finding yields a conclusion that besides the finding that warmer temperature reduces economic growth, the more volatile climate hugely affects the economic growth of a country. Our result also revealed that the hotter countries tend to be poorer than the warmer counterparts. The impact of one degree Celsius average temperature increase in year on the long-run economic growth of poor countries is a 1.5% decrease in economic growth. It is also found that poor countries grow faster than rich ones so that there is economic convergence across countries.
| Author | : Mr. Vimal V Thakoor |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 43 |
| Release | : 2022-12-16 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Download Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change in an Aging World Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Climate and demographic changes are two major long-term trends that are evolving simultaneously. The global population is aging, while climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of weather-related disasters and lowering productivity. This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of these three changes in a common framework. Simulation results suggest that while aging drags down the real interest rate, climate change puts upward pressure on the real interest rate and inflation. As climate change intensifies, it will be the dominant factor shaping the macroeconomic variables. This results in higher inflation and a higher debt-to-GDP ratio, requiring tighter fiscal and monetary policies. The results further suggest that economic uncertainty induced by climate change amplifies these effects of climate change.
| Author | : Signe Krogstrup |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 58 |
| Release | : 2019-09-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513511955 |
Download Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of this century. Mitigation requires a large-scale transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper provides an overview of the rapidly growing literature on the role of macroeconomic and financial policy tools in enabling this transition. The literature provides a menu of policy tools for mitigation. A key conclusion is that fiscal tools are first in line and central, but can and may need to be complemented by financial and monetary policy instruments. Some tools and policies raise unanswered questions about policy tool assignment and mandates, which we describe. The literature is scarce, however, on the most effective policy mix and the role of mitigation tools and goals in the overall policy framework.
| Author | : Stephane Hallegatte |
| Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
| Total Pages | : 227 |
| Release | : 2015-11-23 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1464806748 |
Download Shock Waves Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
| Author | : Jonathan M. Harris |
| Publisher | : Edward Elgar Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 360 |
| Release | : 2009 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Download Twenty-first Century Macroeconomics Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The likely economic effects of climate change and the cost of action to avert it are important public policy issues, but according to the editors (both of the Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts U.), they also raise fundamental questions about economic analysis and move issues of environmental policy from the microeconomic to the macroeconomic level. They therefore present 13 papers addressing the connections between climate change and macroeconomics. Opening chapters address fundamental issues of the likely global economic impact of climate change, the debate over the economics of climate change as presented in a special 2006 issue of the Stern Review that was commissioned by the government of the UK, the place of the climate change debate in the context of broader issues of equitable and sustainable development, and a proposed system for allocating carbon emissions reduction requirements. The next four chapters present macroeconomic theory perspectives that address issues of energy productivity, labor productivity, sustainable development, consumption, and investment. Remaining contributions explore policy options, including the new European emissions trading scheme.
| Author | : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II. |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 532 |
| Release | : 1998 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 9780521634557 |
Download The Regional Impacts of Climate Change Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.
| Author | : Pavan Kumar |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 388 |
| Release | : 2021-12-01 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1119793378 |
Download Climate Impacts on Sustainable Natural Resource Management Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
CLIMATE IMPACTS ON SUSTAINABLE NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Climate change has emerged as one of the predominant global concerns of the 21st century. Statistics show that the average surface temperature of the Earth has increased by about 1.18°C since the late 19th century and the sea levels are rising due to the melting of glaciers. Further rise in the global temperature will have dire consequences for the survival of humans on the planet Earth. There is a need to monitor climatic data and associated drivers of changes to develop sustainable planning. The anthropogenic activities that are linked to climate change need scientific evaluation and must be curtailed before it is too late. This book contributes significantly in the field of sustainable natural resource management linked to climate change. Up to date research findings from developing and developed countries like India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and the USA have been presented through selected case studies covering different thematic areas. The book has been organised into six major themes of sustainable natural resource management, determinants of forest productivity, agriculture and climate change, water resource management and riverine health, climate change threat on natural resources, and linkages between natural resources and biotic-abiotic stressors to develop the concept and to present the findings in a way that is useful for a wide range of readers. While the range of applications and innovative techniques is constantly increasing, this book provides a summary of findings to provide the updated information. This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners in the field of environmental sciences, remote sensing, geographical information system, meteorology, sociology and policy studies related to natural resource management and climate change.
