Laws and Fallacies in Statistical Thinking
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Release | : 1974 |
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Author | : Stephen K. Campbell |
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Total Pages | : 200 |
Release | : 1974 |
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Author | : Stephen K. Campbell |
Publisher | : Courier Corporation |
Total Pages | : 210 |
Release | : 2012-05-14 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 0486140512 |
Nontechnical survey helps improve ability to judge statistical evidence and to make better-informed decisions. Discusses common pitfalls: unrealistic estimates, improper comparisons, premature conclusions, and faulty thinking about probability. 1974 edition.
Author | : Aubrey Clayton |
Publisher | : Columbia University Press |
Total Pages | : 641 |
Release | : 2021-08-03 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 0231553358 |
There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach—that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information—in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data—and how to fix it.
Author | : Stephen Kent Campbell |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 200 |
Release | : 1974 |
Genre | : Statistics |
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Author | : Nathaniel Bluedorn |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 260 |
Release | : 2015-04-04 |
Genre | : Philosophy |
ISBN | : 9780974531595 |
The Fallacy Detective has been the best selling text for teaching logical fallacies and introduction to logic for over 15 years. "Can learning logic be fun? With The Fallacy Detective it appears that it can be. I thoroughly enjoyed this book and would recommend it to anyone who wants to improve his reasoning skills."--Tim Challies, curriculum reviewer "Cartoon and comic illustrations, humorous examples, and a very reader-friendly writing style make this the sort of course students will enjoy."--Cathy Duffy, homeschool curriculum reviewer "I really like The Fallacy Detective because it has funny cartoons, silly stories, and teaches you a lot!"--11 Year Old What is a fallacy? A fallacy is an error in logic a place where someone has made a mistake in his thinking. This is a handy book for learning to spot common errors in reasoning. - For ages twelve through adult. - Fun to use -- learn skills you can use right away. - Peanuts, Dilbert, and Calvin and Hobbes cartoons. - Includes The Fallacy Detective Game. - Exercises with answer key.
Author | : Thomas Sowell |
Publisher | : Basic Books |
Total Pages | : 295 |
Release | : 2011-03-22 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0465026303 |
Thomas Sowell “both surprises and overturns received wisdom” in this indispensable examination of widespread economic fallacies (The Economist) Economic Facts and Fallacies exposes some of the most popular fallacies about economic issues-and does so in a lively manner and without requiring any prior knowledge of economics by the reader. These include many beliefs widely disseminated in the media and by politicians, such as mistaken ideas about urban problems, income differences, male-female economic differences, as well as economics fallacies about academia, about race, and about Third World countries. One of the themes of Economic Facts and Fallacies is that fallacies are not simply crazy ideas but in fact have a certain plausibility that gives them their staying power-and makes careful examination of their flaws both necessary and important, as well as sometimes humorous. Written in the easy-to-follow style of the author's Basic Economics, this latest book is able to go into greater depth, with real world examples, on specific issues.
Author | : Bo Bennett |
Publisher | : eBookIt.com |
Total Pages | : 429 |
Release | : 2012-02-19 |
Genre | : Education |
ISBN | : 1456607375 |
This book is a crash course in effective reasoning, meant to catapult you into a world where you start to see things how they really are, not how you think they are. The focus of this book is on logical fallacies, which loosely defined, are simply errors in reasoning. With the reading of each page, you can make significant improvements in the way you reason and make decisions. Logically Fallacious is one of the most comprehensive collections of logical fallacies with all original examples and easy to understand descriptions, perfect for educators, debaters, or anyone who wants to improve his or her reasoning skills. "Expose an irrational belief, keep a person rational for a day. Expose irrational thinking, keep a person rational for a lifetime." - Bo Bennett This 2021 Edition includes dozens of more logical fallacies with many updated examples.
Author | : Alex Reinhart |
Publisher | : No Starch Press |
Total Pages | : 177 |
Release | : 2015-03-01 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 1593276737 |
Scientific progress depends on good research, and good research needs good statistics. But statistical analysis is tricky to get right, even for the best and brightest of us. You'd be surprised how many scientists are doing it wrong. Statistics Done Wrong is a pithy, essential guide to statistical blunders in modern science that will show you how to keep your research blunder-free. You'll examine embarrassing errors and omissions in recent research, learn about the misconceptions and scientific politics that allow these mistakes to happen, and begin your quest to reform the way you and your peers do statistics. You'll find advice on: –Asking the right question, designing the right experiment, choosing the right statistical analysis, and sticking to the plan –How to think about p values, significance, insignificance, confidence intervals, and regression –Choosing the right sample size and avoiding false positives –Reporting your analysis and publishing your data and source code –Procedures to follow, precautions to take, and analytical software that can help Scientists: Read this concise, powerful guide to help you produce statistically sound research. Statisticians: Give this book to everyone you know. The first step toward statistics done right is Statistics Done Wrong.
Author | : Ali Almossawi |
Publisher | : The Experiment, LLC |
Total Pages | : 66 |
Release | : 2014-09-23 |
Genre | : Philosophy |
ISBN | : 1615192263 |
“This short book makes you smarter than 99% of the population. . . . The concepts within it will increase your company’s ‘organizational intelligence.’. . . It’s more than just a must-read, it’s a ‘have-to-read-or-you’re-fired’ book.”—Geoffrey James, INC.com From the author of An Illustrated Book of Loaded Language, here’s the antidote to fuzzy thinking, with furry animals! Have you read (or stumbled into) one too many irrational online debates? Ali Almossawi certainly had, so he wrote An Illustrated Book of Bad Arguments! This handy guide is here to bring the internet age a much-needed dose of old-school logic (really old-school, a la Aristotle). Here are cogent explanations of the straw man fallacy, the slippery slope argument, the ad hominem attack, and other common attempts at reasoning that actually fall short—plus a beautifully drawn menagerie of animals who (adorably) commit every logical faux pas. Rabbit thinks a strange light in the sky must be a UFO because no one can prove otherwise (the appeal to ignorance). And Lion doesn’t believe that gas emissions harm the planet because, if that were true, he wouldn’t like the result (the argument from consequences). Once you learn to recognize these abuses of reason, they start to crop up everywhere from congressional debate to YouTube comments—which makes this geek-chic book a must for anyone in the habit of holding opinions.