Jump-diffusion Processes and Affine Term Structure Models

Jump-diffusion Processes and Affine Term Structure Models
Author: J. Benson Durham
Publisher:
Total Pages: 84
Release: 2005
Genre: Econometric models
ISBN:

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Affine term structure models in which the short rate follows a jump-diffusion process are difficult to solve, and the parameters of such models are hard to estimate. Without analytical answers to the partial difference differential equation (PDDE) for bond prices implied by jump-diffusion processes, one must find a numerical solution to the PDDE or exactly solve an approximate PDDE. Although the literature focuses on a single linearization technique to estimate the PDDE, this paper outlines alternative methods that seem to improve accuracy. Also, closed-form solutions, numerical estimates, and closed-form approximations of the PDDE each ultimately depend on the presumed distribution of jump sizes, and this paper explores a broader set of possible densities that may be more consistent with intuition, including a bi-modal Gaussian mixture. GMM and MLE of one- and two-factor jump-diffusion models produce some evidence for jumps, but sensitivity analyses suggest sizeable confidence intervals around the parameters.

Jump-diffusion Processes and Affine Term Structure Models

Jump-diffusion Processes and Affine Term Structure Models
Author: Athanasios Orphanides
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2005
Genre: Banks and banking, Central
ISBN:

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"Firms active in OTC derivative markets increasingly use margin agreements to reduce counterparty credit risk. Making several simplifying assumptions, I use both a quasi- analytic approach and a simulation approach to quantify how margining reduces counterparty credit exposure. Margining reduces counterparty credit exposure by over 80 percent, using baseline parameter assumptions. I show how expected positive exposure (EPE) depends on key terms of the margin agreement and the current mark-to-market value of the portfolio of contracts with the counterparty. I also discuss a possible shortcut that could be used by firms that can model EPE without margin but cannot achieve the higher level of sophistication needed to model EPE with margin"--Federal Reserve Board web site.

Additional Analytical Approximations of the Term Structure and Distributional Assumptions for Jump-Diffusion Processes

Additional Analytical Approximations of the Term Structure and Distributional Assumptions for Jump-Diffusion Processes
Author: J. Benson Durham
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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Affine term structure models in which the short rate follows a jump-diffusion process are difficult to solve. Without analytical answers to the partial difference differential equation (PDDE) for bond prices implied by jump-diffusion processes, one must find a numerical solution to the PDDE or exactly solve an approximate PDDE. Although the literature focuses on a single linearization technique to estimate the PDDE, this article outlines alternative methods that seem to improve accuracy. Also, closed form solutions, numerical estimates, and closed form approximations of the PDDE each ultimately depend on the presumed distribution of jump sizes, and this article explores a broader set of possible densities more consistent with intuition.

Affine-Quadratic Jump-Diffusion Term Structure Models

Affine-Quadratic Jump-Diffusion Term Structure Models
Author: George J. Jiang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this paper, we propose a unifying affine-quadratic jump-diffusion framework for the term structure dynamics. The model incorporates both stochastic volatility and random jumps in the short rate process. In particular, we extend the existing models by explicitly modeling the jump intensity as a stochastic process. Using information from the treasury futures market, a GMM estimation approach is proposed for the risk-neutral process. A distinguishing feature of the approach is that the latent state variables are obtained, together with the model parameter estimates. The estimated latent state variables, namely the stochastic volatility and stochastic jump intensity, allow us to investigate the premia of various risk factors as well as underlying economic variables driving the term structure dynamics. Our empirical results suggest that the stochastic jump intensity significantly improves the model fit to the term structure dynamics. We identify a jump intensity negatively correlated with interest rate changes, a higher probability of positive jump than negative jump, and an on average larger size of negative jump than positive jump. We document a significant time-varying risk premium that is positively correlated with volatility.

Linear-Quadratic Term Structure Models - Toward the Understanding of Jumps in Interest Rates

Linear-Quadratic Term Structure Models - Toward the Understanding of Jumps in Interest Rates
Author: George J. Jiang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 13
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this paper, we propose a unifying class of affine-quadratic term structure models (AQTSMs) in the general jump-diffusion framework. Extending existing term structure models, the AQTSMs incorporate random jumps of stochastic intensity in the short rate process. Using information from the Treasury futures market, we propose a GMM approach for the estimation of the risk-neutral process. A distinguishing feature of the approach is that the time series estimates of stochastic volatility and jump intensity are obtained, together with model parameter estimates. Our empirical results suggest that stochastic jump intensity significantly improves the model fit to the term structure dynamics. We identify a stochastic jump intensity process that is negatively correlated with interest rate changes. Overall, negative jumps tend to have a larger size than positive ones. Our empirical results also suggest that, at monthly frequency, while stochastic volatility has certain predictive power of inflation, jumps are neither triggered by nor predictive of changes in macroeconomic variables. At daily frequency, however, we document interesting patterns for jumps associated with informational shocks in the financial market.

Encyclopedia of Finance

Encyclopedia of Finance
Author: Cheng-Few Lee
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 861
Release: 2006-07-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0387262849

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This is a major new reference work covering all aspects of finance. Coverage includes finance (financial management, security analysis, portfolio management, financial markets and instruments, insurance, real estate, options and futures, international finance) and statistical applications in finance (applications in portfolio analysis, option pricing models and financial research). The project is designed to attract both an academic and professional market. It also has an international approach to ensure its maximum appeal. The Editors' wish is that the readers will find the encyclopedia to be an invaluable resource.

Dynamic Term Structure Modeling

Dynamic Term Structure Modeling
Author: Sanjay K. Nawalkha
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 722
Release: 2007-05-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470140062

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Praise for Dynamic Term Structure Modeling "This book offers the most comprehensive coverage of term-structure models I have seen so far, encompassing equilibrium and no-arbitrage models in a new framework, along with the major solution techniques using trees, PDE methods, Fourier methods, and approximations. It is an essential reference for academics and practitioners alike." --Sanjiv Ranjan Das Professor of Finance, Santa Clara University, California, coeditor, Journal of Derivatives "Bravo! This is an exhaustive analysis of the yield curve dynamics. It is clear, pedagogically impressive, well presented, and to the point." --Nassim Nicholas Taleb author, Dynamic Hedging and The Black Swan "Nawalkha, Beliaeva, and Soto have put together a comprehensive, up-to-date textbook on modern dynamic term structure modeling. It is both accessible and rigorous and should be of tremendous interest to anyone who wants to learn about state-of-the-art fixed income modeling. It provides many numerical examples that will be valuable to readers interested in the practical implementations of these models." --Pierre Collin-Dufresne Associate Professor of Finance, UC Berkeley "The book provides a comprehensive description of the continuous time interest rate models. It serves an important part of the trilogy, useful for financial engineers to grasp the theoretical underpinnings and the practical implementation." --Thomas S. Y. Ho, PHD President, Thomas Ho Company, Ltd, coauthor, The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling

Infinitesimal Operator Based Methods for Continuous-time Finance Models

Infinitesimal Operator Based Methods for Continuous-time Finance Models
Author: Zhaogang Song
Publisher:
Total Pages: 376
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

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Continuous time Markov processes, including diffusion, jump-diffusion and Levy jump-diffusion models, have become an essential tool of modern finance over the past three decades. Nowadays, they are widely used in modeling dynamics of, for instance, interest rates, stock prices, exchange rates and option prices. However, data are always recorded at discrete points in time, e.g., monthly, weekly, and daily, although these models are formulated in continuous time. This feature makes most econometric inferential procedures developed for discrete time econometrics unsuitable for continuous time models and complicates the econometric analysis considerably. For example, estimators obtained by applying discrete time econometric methods to the discretized version of continuous time models are not consistent for a fixed sampling interval. More seriously, although the maximum likelihood method is a very appealing econometric procedure due to its nice properties like efficiency, the transition density and hence likelihood function of most continuous time Markov models have no analytic expressions. This poses a serious impediment for the implementation of likelihood procedures. Many approaches have been proposed to deal with this problem but they either incur substantive computation burdens especially for multivariate cases or involve complicated approximation formulas with limited applicability. Consequently, there is a strong need for convenient econometric methodologies designed for continuous time mod- els given discrete sampled data. Unlike the transition density, the infinitesimal operator, as an important mathematical tool in probability theory, enjoys the nice property of being a closed-form expression of drift, diffusion and jump terms of the process. As a result, no approximated formulas or simulation based implementations are needed. Furthermore, it is equivalent to the transition density in characterizing the complete dynamics of the processes. Based on this convenient infinitesimal operator, this dissertation proposes a sequence of econometric procedures for continuous time Markov models with applications to affine jump diffusion (AJD) term structure models of interest rates. It is divided into four chapters. In the first chapter, "Infinitesimal Operator Based Estimation for Continuous Time Markov Processes", I propose an estimation method based on the infinitesimal operator for general multivariate continuous-time Markov processes, which cover diffusion, jump-diffusion and Levy-driven jump models as special cases. A conditional moment restriction is first obtained via the infinitesimal operator based identification of the process. Then an empirical likelihood type estimator is constructed by a kernel smoothing approach. Unlike the transition density which is rarely available in closed-form, the infinitesimal operator has an analytic form for all continuous time Markov models. As a result, different from the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) which involves either numerical or simulated transition densities, the proposed estimator can be conveniently implemented by plugging in parametric components of the models. Furthermore, I prove that the proposed estimator attains the semi-parametric efficiency bound for conditional moment restrictions models of Markov processes and hence is asymptotically efficient. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimator has good finite sample performances comparable to the MLE. In the empirical application, I estimate Levy jump diffusion models for daily Euro/Dollar (2000-2010) and Yen/Dollar (1990-2000) rates. Results show that Levy jumps are important components in exchange rate dynamics and Poissontype jump diffusion models cannot capture them. In the second chapter, "Expectation Puzzles, Time Varying Conditional Volatility, and Jumps in Affine Term Structure Models", I study how jumps in interest rates, which are well documented in the literature, affect the term structure dynamics of the LIBOR-Swap curve in a multivariate AJD model. The motivation is that affine diffusion (AD) term structure models, as the major framework for interest rate dynamics, face two empirical challenges: first, they ignore well-documented jumps in interest rates as the state variables follow affine diffusions; second, they fail to capture simultaneously time variations in risk premiums implied by the violations of the "expectation hypothesis" and time variations in volatilities which are critical for pricing fixed-income derivatives. In this paper, I develop a multivariate AJD term structure model that overcomes these two challenges. Using LIBOR-Swap yields from 1990 to 2008, I estimate three-factor AJD models with infinitesimal operator methods and examine the contributions of jumps to term structure dynamics. I find that jumps are state dependent and negative. The risk premium is positive for jump size risk and negative for jump time risk, while the total jump risk premium is positive. Jump risk premiums lead to flexible time-varying market prices of risks without restricting time variations in conditional volatilities. As a result, two models in the three-factor AJD class capture time variations in both the risk premium and conditional volatility of LIBOR-Swap yields simultaneously. In the third chapter (part of this chapter has been published as Song (2011) in Journal of Econometrics, 162-2, 189-212.), "A Martingale Approach for Testing Diffusion Models Based on Infinitesimal Operator", I develop an omnibus specification test for diffusion models based on the infinitesimal operator instead of the transition density extensively used in literature. The infinitesimal operator based identification of the diffusion process is equivalent to a "martingale hypothesis" for the processes obtained by a transformation of the original diffusion model. My test procedure is then constructed by checking the "martingale hypothesis" via a multivariate generalized spectral derivative based approach which delivers an N(0,1) asymptotical null distribution for the test statistic. The infinitesimal operator of the diffusion process enjoys the nice property of being a closed-form function of drift and diffusion terms. Consequently, my test procedure covers both univariate and multivariate diffusion models in a unified framework and is particularly convenient for the multivariate case. Moreover, different transformed martingale processes contain separate information about the drift and diffusion specifications and about their interactions. This motivates me to propose a separate inferential test procedure to explore the sources of rejection when a parametric form is rejected. Simulation studies show that the proposed tests have reasonable size and excellent power performances. An empirical application of my test procedure using Eurodollar interest rates finds that most popular short-rate models are rejected and the drift mis-specification plays an important role in such rejections. In the fourth chapter, "Estimating Semi-Parametric Diffusion Models with Unrestricted Volatility via Infinitesimal Operator", two generalized method of moments estimators are proposed for the drift parameters in both univariate and multivariate semi-parametric diffusion models with unrestricted volatility based on the infinitesimal operator. The first estimator is obtained by integrating out the diffusion function via the quadratic variation (co-variation), which is estimated by the realized volatility (covariance) in a first step using high frequency data. The second is constructed based on the separate identification condition and is actually applicable for a general instantaneous conditional mean model in continuous time, which covers the stochastic volatility and jump diffusion models as special cases. Simulation studies show that they possess fairly good finite sample performances.

Term-Structure Models

Term-Structure Models
Author: Damir Filipovic
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 259
Release: 2009-07-28
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3540680152

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Changing interest rates constitute one of the major risk sources for banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions. Modeling the term-structure movements of interest rates is a challenging task. This volume gives an introduction to the mathematics of term-structure models in continuous time. It includes practical aspects for fixed-income markets such as day-count conventions, duration of coupon-paying bonds and yield curve construction; arbitrage theory; short-rate models; the Heath-Jarrow-Morton methodology; consistent term-structure parametrizations; affine diffusion processes and option pricing with Fourier transform; LIBOR market models; and credit risk. The focus is on a mathematically straightforward but rigorous development of the theory. Students, researchers and practitioners will find this volume very useful. Each chapter ends with a set of exercises, that provides source for homework and exam questions. Readers are expected to be familiar with elementary Itô calculus, basic probability theory, and real and complex analysis.