Jump Activity Analysis for Affine Jump-Diffusion Models

Jump Activity Analysis for Affine Jump-Diffusion Models
Author: José Da Fonseca
Publisher:
Total Pages: 33
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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The objective of this paper is to perform a joint analysis of jump activity for commodities and their respective volatility indices. Exploiting the property that for affine jump-diffusion models a volatility index, which is quoted on the market, is an affine function of the instantaneous volatility state variable (thus turning this quantity observable), we perform a test of common jumps for multidimensional processes to assess whether an asset and its volatility jump together. Applying this test to the crude oil pair USO/OVX and the gold pair GLD/GVZ we find strong evidence that for these two markets the asset and its volatility have disjoint jumps. This result contrasts with existing results for the equity market and underpins a very specific nature of the commodity market. The results are further confirmed by analysing jump size distributions using a copula methodology.

Computing Rare-event Probabilities for Affine Models and General State Space Markov Processes

Computing Rare-event Probabilities for Affine Models and General State Space Markov Processes
Author: Xiaowei Zhang
Publisher: Stanford University
Total Pages: 129
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

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Rare-event simulation concerns computing small probabilities, i.e. rare-event probabilities. This dissertation investigates efficient simulation algorithms based on importance sampling for computing rare-event probabilities for different models, and establishes their efficiency via asymptotic analysis. The first part discusses asymptotic behavior of affine models. Stochastic stability of affine jump diffusions are carefully studied. In particular, positive recurrence, ergodicity, and exponential ergodicity are established for such processes under various conditions via a Foster-Lyapunov type approach. The stationary distribution is characterized in terms of its characteristic function. Furthermore, the large deviations behavior of affine point processes are explicitly computed, based on which a logarithmically efficient importance sampling algorithm is proposed for computing rare-event probabilities for affine point processes. The second part is devoted to a much more general setting, i.e. general state space Markov processes. The current state-of-the-art algorithm for computing rare-event probabilities in this context heavily relies on the solution of a certain eigenvalue problem, which is often unavailable in closed form unless certain special structure is present (e.g. affine structure for affine models). To circumvent this difficulty, assuming the existence of a regenerative structure, we propose a bootstrap-based algorithm that conducts the importance sampling on the regenerative cycle-path space instead of the original one-step transition kernel. The efficiency of this algorithm is also discussed.

Modeling And Pricing Of Swaps For Financial And Energy Markets With Stochastic Volatilities

Modeling And Pricing Of Swaps For Financial And Energy Markets With Stochastic Volatilities
Author: Anatoliy Swishchuk
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 326
Release: 2013-06-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814440140

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Modeling and Pricing of Swaps for Financial and Energy Markets with Stochastic Volatilities is devoted to the modeling and pricing of various kinds of swaps, such as those for variance, volatility, covariance, correlation, for financial and energy markets with different stochastic volatilities, which include CIR process, regime-switching, delayed, mean-reverting, multi-factor, fractional, Levy-based, semi-Markov and COGARCH(1,1). One of the main methods used in this book is change of time method. The book outlines how the change of time method works for different kinds of models and problems arising in financial and energy markets and the associated problems in modeling and pricing of a variety of swaps. The book also contains a study of a new model, the delayed Heston model, which improves the volatility surface fitting as compared with the classical Heston model. The author calculates variance and volatility swaps for this model and provides hedging techniques. The book considers content on the pricing of variance and volatility swaps and option pricing formula for mean-reverting models in energy markets. Some topics such as forward and futures in energy markets priced by multi-factor Levy models and generalization of Black-76 formula with Markov-modulated volatility are part of the book as well, and it includes many numerical examples such as S&P60 Canada Index, S&P500 Index and AECO Natural Gas Index.

Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Volatility Models

Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Volatility Models
Author: Jaya P. N. Bishwal
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 634
Release: 2022-08-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3031038614

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This book develops alternative methods to estimate the unknown parameters in stochastic volatility models, offering a new approach to test model accuracy. While there is ample research to document stochastic differential equation models driven by Brownian motion based on discrete observations of the underlying diffusion process, these traditional methods often fail to estimate the unknown parameters in the unobserved volatility processes. This text studies the second order rate of weak convergence to normality to obtain refined inference results like confidence interval, as well as nontraditional continuous time stochastic volatility models driven by fractional Levy processes. By incorporating jumps and long memory into the volatility process, these new methods will help better predict option pricing and stock market crash risk. Some simulation algorithms for numerical experiments are provided.

Analytical Representations for the Basic Affine Jump Diffusion

Analytical Representations for the Basic Affine Jump Diffusion
Author: Lingfei Li
Publisher:
Total Pages: 14
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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The Basic Affine Jump Diffusion (BAJD) process is widely used in financial modeling. In this paper, we develop an exact analytical representation for its transition density in terms of a series expansion that is uniformly-absolutely convergent on compacts. Computationally, our formula complements existing approaches based on numerical inversion and analytical approximation. Furthermore, it can be easily generalized to give an analytical expression for the transition density of the subordinate BAJD process which is more realistic than the BAJD process, while existing approaches cannot.

Applied Stochastic Control of Jump Diffusions

Applied Stochastic Control of Jump Diffusions
Author: Bernt Øksendal
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 263
Release: 2007-04-26
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3540698264

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Here is a rigorous introduction to the most important and useful solution methods of various types of stochastic control problems for jump diffusions and its applications. Discussion includes the dynamic programming method and the maximum principle method, and their relationship. The text emphasises real-world applications, primarily in finance. Results are illustrated by examples, with end-of-chapter exercises including complete solutions. The 2nd edition adds a chapter on optimal control of stochastic partial differential equations driven by Lévy processes, and a new section on optimal stopping with delayed information. Basic knowledge of stochastic analysis, measure theory and partial differential equations is assumed.

Consistent Pretesting for Jumps

Consistent Pretesting for Jumps
Author: Valentina Corradi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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If the intensity parameter in a jump diffusion model is identically zero, then parameters characterizing the jump size density cannot be identified. In general, this lack of identification precludes consistent estimation of identified parameters. Hence, it should be standard practice to consistently pretest for jumps, prior to estimating jump diffusions. Many currently available tests have power against the presence of jumps over a finite time span (typically a day or a week); and, as already noted by various authors, jumps may not be observed over finite time spans, even if the intensity parameter is strictly positive. Such tests cannot be consistent against non-zero intensity. Moreover, sequential application of finite time span tests usually leads to sequential testing bias, which in turn leads to jump discovery with probability one, in the limit, even if the true intensity is identically zero. This paper introduces tests for jump intensity, based on both in-fill and long-span asymptotics, which solve both the test consistency and the sequential testing bias problems discussed above, in turn facilitating consistent estimation of jump diffusion models. A self excitement test is also introduced, which is designed to have power against path dependent intensity, thus providing a direct test for the Hawkes diffusion model of Ait-Sahalia, Cacho-Diaz and Laeven (2013). In a series of Monte Carlo experiments, the proposed tests are evaluated, and are found to perform adequately in finite samples.

A Bayesian Analysis of Return Dynamics with Lévy Jumps

A Bayesian Analysis of Return Dynamics with Lévy Jumps
Author: Haitao Li
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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We have developed Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for inferences of continuous-time models with stochastic volatility and infinite-activity Leacute;vy jumps using discretely sampled data. Simulation studies show that (i) our methods provide accurate joint identification of diffusion, stochastic volatility, and Leacute;vy jumps, and (ii) the affine jump-diffusion (AJD) models fail to adequately approximate the behavior of infinite-activity jumps. In particular, the AJD models fail to capture the ldquo;infinitely manyrdquo; small Leacute;vy jumps, which are too big for Brownian motion to model and too small for compound Poisson process to capture. Empirical studies show that infinite-activity Leacute;vy jumps are essential for modeling the Samp;P 500 index returns.