Is the International Diversification Potential Diminishing?

Is the International Diversification Potential Diminishing?
Author: Karen K. Lewis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 73
Release: 2006
Genre: Capital market
ISBN:

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Over the past two decades international markets have become more open, leading to a common perception that global capital markets have become more integrated. In this paper, I ask what this integration and its resulting higher correlation would imply about the diversification potential across countries. For this purpose, I examine two basic groups of international returns: (1) foreign market indices and (2) foreign stocks that are listed and traded in the US. I examine the first group since this is the standard approach in the international diversification literature, while I study the second group since some have argued that US-listed foreign stocks are the more natural diversification vehicle (Errunza et al (1999)). In order to consider the possibility of shifts in the covariance of returns over time, I extend the break-date estimation approach of Bai and Perron (1998) to test for and estimate possible break dates across returns along with their confidence intervals. I find that the covariances among country stock markets have indeed shifted over time for a majority of the countries. But in contrast to the common perception that markets have become significantly more integrated over time, the covariance between foreign markets and the US market have increased only slightly from the beginning to the end of the last twenty years. At the same time, the foreign stocks in the US markets have become significantly more correlated with the US market. To consider the economic significance of these parameter changes, I use the estimates to examine the implications for a simple portfolio decision model in which a US investor could choose between US and foreign portfolios. When restricted to holding foreign assets in the form of market indices, I find that the optimal allocation in foreign market indices actually increases over time. However, the optimal allocation into foreign stocks decreases when the investor is allowed to hold foreign stocks that are traded in the US. Also, the minimum variance atta

Is the International Diversification Potential Diminishing? Foreign Equity Inside and Outside the Us

Is the International Diversification Potential Diminishing? Foreign Equity Inside and Outside the Us
Author: Karen K. Lewis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 74
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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Over the past two decades international markets have become more open, leading to a common perception that global capital markets have become more integrated. In this paper, I ask what this integration and its resulting higher correlation would imply about the diversification potential across countries. For this purpose, I examine two basic groups of international returns: (1) foreign market indices and (2) foreign stocks that are listed and traded in the US. I examine the first group since this is the standard approach in the international diversification literature, while I study the second group since some have argued that US-listed foreign stocks are the more natural diversification vehicle (Errunza et al (1999)). In order to consider the possibility of shifts in the covariance of returns over time, I extend the break-date estimation approach of Bai and Perron (1998) to test for and estimate possible break dates across returns along with their confidence intervals. I find that the covariances among country stock markets have indeed shifted over time for a majority of the countries. But in contrast to the common perception that markets have become significantly more integrated over time, the covariance between foreign markets and the US market have increased only slightly from the beginning to the end of the last twenty years. At the same time, the foreign stocks in the US markets have become significantly more correlated with the US market. To consider the economic significance of these parameter changes, I use the estimates to examine the implications for a simple portfolio decision model in which a US investor could choose between US and foreign portfolios. When restricted to holding foreign assets in the form of market indices, I find that the optimal allocation in foreign market indices actually increases over time. However, the optimal allocation into foreign stocks decreases when the investor is allowed to hold foreign stocks that are traded in the US. Also, the minimum variance attainable by the foreign portfolios has increased over time. These results suggest that the benefits to diversification have declined both for stocks inside and outside the US.

Multinationals and the Gains from International Diversification

Multinationals and the Gains from International Diversification
Author: Patrick F. Rowland
Publisher:
Total Pages: 74
Release: 1998
Genre: Diversification in industry
ISBN:

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One possible explanation for home bias is that investors may obtain indirect international diversification benefits by investing in multinational firms rather than by investing directly in foreign markets. This paper employs mean-variance spanning tests to examine the diversification potential of multinational firms and foreign market indices for investors domiciled in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. We find that in most countries and most time periods, the portfolio of domestic stocks spans the risk and return opportunities of a portfolio that includes domestic and multinational stocks. However, there is weak evidence that U.S. multinationals provided global diversification benefits in the full 1984-92 sample and in the post-1987 subsample. We also find that the addition of foreign market indices to a domestic portfolio - inclusive of multinationals - provides diversification benefits. The economic importance of the shift of the portfolio frontier - measured as the utility gain from diversification - varies considerably from market to market and often reflects the benefits of large short positions in certain markets.

Multinationals and the Gains from International Diversification

Multinationals and the Gains from International Diversification
Author: Patrick F. Rowland
Publisher:
Total Pages: 61
Release: 2002
Genre:
ISBN:

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One possible explanation for home bias is that investors may obtain indirect international diversification benefits by investing in multinational firms rather than by investing directly in foreign markets. This paper employs mean-variance spanning tests to examine the diversification potential of multinational firms and foreign market indices for investors domiciled in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. We find that in most countries and most time periods, the portfolio of domestic stocks spans the risk and return opportunities of a portfolio that includes domestic and multinational stocks. However, there is weak evidence that U.S. multinationals provided global diversification benefits in the full 1984-92 sample and in the post-1987 subsample. We also find that the addition of foreign market indices to a domestic portfolio - inclusive of multinationals - provides diversification benefits. The economic importance of the shift of the portfolio frontier - measured as the utility gain from diversification - varies considerably from market to market and often reflects the benefits of large short positions in certain markets.

Are the Gains from Foreign Diversification Diminishing?

Are the Gains from Foreign Diversification Diminishing?
Author: Karen K. Lewis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2012
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

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How important is foreign diversification? In this paper, we re-examine this question motivated by findings from the literature about foreign companies that are listed on US exchanges. Specifically, domestic portfolios including cross-listed stocks can provide the same diversification as foreign market returns without the need for US investors to go abroad. At the same time, the betas of these foreign stock returns against the US market increase after cross-listing, suggesting diversification worsens over time. In this paper, we assess the impact of these changes on foreign diversification for a US investor. We test for and estimate breaks in the sensitivity of individual foreign stocks listed on US exchanges. We find that roughly half of the changes in betas arise from greater integration between the U.S. and the companies' home markets, not in the companies betas themselves. Moreover, the gains from diversifying into these stocks has declined over time -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

International Diversification Using Cointegration and Modern Portfolio Theory

International Diversification Using Cointegration and Modern Portfolio Theory
Author: Jose Balarezo
Publisher:
Total Pages: 116
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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It is widely accepted that diversifying internationally is a sound strategy because correlations among securities in different countries are lower as compared to local securities. We argue however, that in some instances, diversifying internationally might not be as effective; therefore, investors need to be careful in choosing where to diversify internationally. For investors with longer time horizons, if countries share common long term movements, the benefits of international diversification will be diminished. We argue that international diversification will benefit investors only in the cases that the home country does not cointegrate with the foreign market. To verify this argument, this paper uses cointegration techniques to investigate long term movements between The U.S. and 15 foreign markets, and then uses country ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) to build portfolios constructed by combining the findings of the cointegration techniques with Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) and compares the results against portfolios built solely on MPT. The results clearly support our hypothesis as in more than 90% of the cases tested, the portfolios constructed by combining the findings of our cointegration analysis with the optimization techniques of MPT outperform - in a risk adjusted basis - portfolios constructed only by using the optimization techniques used by MPT.

Asset Management

Asset Management
Author: Andrew Ang
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 717
Release: 2014-07-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199959331

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In Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing, Professor Andrew Ang presents a comprehensive, new approach to the age-old problem of where to put your money. Years of experience as a finance professor and a consultant have led him to see that what matters aren't asset class labels, but instead the bundles of overlapping risks they represent. Factor risks must be the focus of our attention if we are to weather market turmoil and receive the rewards that come with doing so. Clearly written yet full of the latest research and data, Asset Management is indispensable reading for trustees, professional money managers, smart private investors, and business students who want to understand the economics behind factor risk premiums, to harvest them efficiently in their portfolios, and to embark on the search for true alpha.

Downscoping

Downscoping
Author: Robert E. Hoskisson
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 223
Release: 1994-09-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0195360117

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Large, diversified firms face unique challenges as they compete worldwide, and corporate restructuring is one way multinationals strive for competitive advantage. Weighing the pros and cons of a variety of approaches to restructuring, Downscoping offers executives a clear, strategic path through the maze. The authors show that when a multinational conglomerate fails to compete effectively, too much diversification may be the culprit. Whether the result of weak corporate governance or poor corporate strategy, over-diversification can make managers, unfamiliar with some of the markets in which they compete, opt for safety over innovation. This risk-aversion and lack of long-range commitment to innovation lead inevitably to stagnation over the longer term. The answer is not downsizing--closing offices and laying off personnel--but downscoping: a strategic approach to restructuring. The options include incentive and compensation adjustments for executives, leveraged buy-outs and capital structure changes, focusing on core skills, diversifying internationally while focusing on businesses in which a firm has strong competencies, and buying and selling mature businesses where product development is not a great concern. Regardless of the approach, executives must exercise strategic leadership during and after restructuring, including providing strategic direction, exploiting core competencies, developing human capital, and sustaining the corporate culture. Based on systematic research rather than casual observation, Downscoping provides a strong description of restructuring alternatives and their resulting tradeoffs. Its specific guidelines for maintaining competitiveness will be essential reading for managers involved in corporate restructuring.