Investors' optimal response to stock price bubbles

Investors' optimal response to stock price bubbles
Author: Maximilian Wegener
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2013-04-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3656403198

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Bachelor Thesis from the year 2013 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 8.0, Maastricht University, language: English, abstract: According to the efficient market hypothesis there should not be an asset overvaluation. Nevertheless, bubbles appear from time to time in the real world. In a financial bubble, the price of a security deviates grossly from its fundamental intrinsic value (Watanabe, Takayasu & Takayasu, 2007). Fundamentals or fundamental value refer to economic variables such as discount rates or future cash flows (Siegel, 2003). Depending on the valuation technique one can define an asset’s intrinsic or fundamental value, based on economic variables and assumed growth. A financial bubble is defined as a price run-up, where an initial price rise generates positive expectations of higher future prices, which attracts new buyers that are rather interested in reaping profits by trading the assets than using its earnings capacity (Siegel, 2003). There is a long history of bubbles such as the 1720 South Sea bubble, 1929 the Great Crash, in the mid-1970s the REIT bubble, in 1987 the housing crash, in 1991 the banking crisis, in 2002 the NASDAQ technology bubble and just recently the housing bubble in the United States, just to name a few. This capstone assignment deals with the question of how investors should act in the case of asset overvaluation in financial markets. In particular, it tries to answer how investors should behave. The central question asks whether investors should step aside and wait until the bubble bursts, whether they should ride the bubble or trade against it. Of course, there is support for all three, albeit contradicting theories. The different trading and investment strategies are reviewed, thereby touching upon various asset bubbles, financial concepts and empirical evidence in the academia. Moreover, it is elaborated on positive feedback trading and rational speculations, as well as behavioral finance concepts such as herding or overconfidence. The remainder of this paper describes different concepts outlined in the empirical literature, starting with asset overvaluation, followed by the efficient market hypothesis and the random walk phenomenon. The role of arbitrage traders is explored, and their impact on efficient markets and bubbles discussed. A review of behavioral traits during bubbles and the impact of human behavior on asset prices is included. Further, there is an examination of mutual fund strategies and their success in exploiting profit opportunities during bubbles. Finally, it is summarized which arguments support each of the viewpoints.

The Stock Market: Bubbles, Volatility, and Chaos

The Stock Market: Bubbles, Volatility, and Chaos
Author: G.P. Dwyer
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 206
Release: 2013-03-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9401578818

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Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. and R. W. Hafer The articles and commentaries included in this volume were presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' thirteenth annual economic policy conference, held on October 21-22, 1988. The conference focused on the behavior of asset market prices, a topic of increasing interest to both the popular press and to academic journals as the bull market of the 1980s continued. The events that transpired during October, 1987, both in the United States and abroad, provide an informative setting to test alter native theories. In assembling the papers presented during this conference, we asked the authors to explore the issue of asset pricing and financial market behavior from several vantages. Was the crash evidence of the bursting of a speculative bubble? Do we know enough about the work ings of asset markets to hazard an intelligent guess why they dropped so dramatically in such a brief time? Do we know enough to propose regulatory changes that will prevent any such occurrence in the future, or do we want to even if we can? We think that the articles and commentaries contained in this volume provide significant insight to inform and to answer such questions. The article by Behzad Diba surveys existing theoretical and empirical research on rational bubbles in asset prices.

Asset Bubbles Explained

Asset Bubbles Explained
Author: IntroBooks Team
Publisher: IntroBooks
Total Pages:
Release:
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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An element of asset bubble develops when the value of an asset, like real estate, commodities, stocks, or bonds, increases at a brisk rate without intrinsic factors, such as equivalent ever-increasing demand, to validate the spike in prices. An asset bubble is triggered when assets such as gold, stocks, or housing rapidly experience a dramatic price hike over a short period that is not sustained by the value of the commodity. The characteristic of a bubble is unreasonable optimism: a tendency when everyone is buying up a specific asset. When investors rush towards a category of assets, like real estate, it results in a rise in both price and demand. Investors carry on bidding up an asset’s price well beyond sustainable and real value in the course of a bubble. Inevitably, when prices are in a collision, the bubble "bursts, and subsequently, demand disintegrates, and the result is often significantly lowered domestic spending and dismal business and the economy's possible future downturn. Knowing the historical trends and causes of asset bubbles will prevent one from responding and falling prey to a future debacle. Illogical exuberance is a crucial indicator of a continuing asset bubble.

Anatomy Of Stock Market Bubbles

Anatomy Of Stock Market Bubbles
Author: György Komáromi
Publisher: ICFAI Books
Total Pages: 129
Release: 2006-11-14
Genre: Business enterprises
ISBN: 8131404080

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This book presents one of the most controversial happenings in economics stock market bubbles. The author discusses this topic threadbare and provides a critical analysis of related literature from different economic schools. This book also presents analy

Bubbleology

Bubbleology
Author: Kevin Hassett
Publisher: Currency
Total Pages: 192
Release: 2002-07-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400045126

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There are only two types of stocks: those safe from bubbles and those that are not. This is a fact of investing many discovered as they saw their fabulous gains whittled away by the extreme calamity of the Internet sector. But what about the future? Is there a way for investors to capture the enormous potential for profit that exists at the frontier of the economy, the place where innovation and genius operate, without placing their fortunes in jeopardy? Is there a way to evaluate price increases—and declines—and identify whether they are happening for good or bad reasons? Bubbleology makes it possible to separate the winners from the losers. It is a brilliant, practical, and original analysis of the stock market that bashes the conventional wisdom about bubbles, showing that such famous examples as Tulipomania were not, in fact, bubbles at all. Bubbleology shows that the traditional way of evaluating risk—equating it with volatility—is inherently flawed and incomplete. If a stock fluctuates a lot in price it is regarded as risky. If the price is stable, then it is not. What this simplistic way of thinking leaves out is the simple fact that companies trying something completely new that may fundamentally alter the economic landscape are operating at the frontier. The stock of such a company swims in a sea of ambiguity, its circumstances uncertain, since there is little to provide guidance about the future. But when nobody knows for sure what will happen, pundits tell us again about Tulipomania, the South Seas Bubble, and now the debacle of the Internet to scare investors away from potentially enormous profits. To realize those profits, however, investors have to understand the role that uncertainty and ambiguity—the absence of reliable information about future events—play in the modern stock market. Those who equate ambiguity with bubbles will miss the great opportunities of the future. Bubbleology provides a new way to observe what is really going on in the market, enabling you to understand whether a stock or a sector is suspicious—whether it is in a bubble and therefore something to be avoided. Finding bubbles requires knowing where to look and what to look for. Bubbleology will help you avoid both streaming into speculative manias and shying away from perfectly good business opportunities. It tells you why you need to avoid both pontificating pundits and overconfident stock analysts. With this unique and forward-thinking book, you can inspect suspicious stocks, accurately discern risk, and diagnose a blossoming bubble before it vanishes along with your money.

Beast on Wall Street

Beast on Wall Street
Author: Robert A. Haugen
Publisher: Pearson
Total Pages: 166
Release: 1999
Genre: Actions (Titres de société)
ISBN:

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It is now abundantly clear that stock volatility is a contagious disease that spreads virulently from market to market around the world. Price changes in one market drive subsequent price changes in that market as well as in others. In Beast, Haugen makes a compelling case for the fact that even under normal conditions, fully 80 percent of stock volatility is price driven. Moreover, this volatility is far from benign. It acts to reduce the level of investment spending and constitutes a significant and permanent drag on economic growth. Price-driven volatility is unstable. Dramatic and unpredictable explosions in price-driven volatility can send stock markets in a downward spiral and cause significant disruptions in economic activity. Haugen argues that this indeed happened in 1929 and 1930. If volatility in Asian markets persists, it can easily become the source of the problem rather than merely a symptom.

What Drives Stock Prices? Fundamentals, Bubbles and Investor Behavior

What Drives Stock Prices? Fundamentals, Bubbles and Investor Behavior
Author: Yen-Hsiao Chen
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2009
Genre: Cash flow
ISBN:

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Using a dynamic version of the present value model and a range of developed and Asian emerging markets, this paper considers estimates of stock market prices given expectations on dividends and earnings and compares these fundamental stock prices with actual stock prices. The reported empirical results suggest that a dynamic present value model combined with differing definitions of cash flows can explain actual stock price movements for many of the sample markets. For markets where price deviations from fundamental value are statistically significant, the revealed deviations are investigated by considering types of investor behavior which might drive such departures.

Do Stock Price Bubbles Influence Corporate Investment?

Do Stock Price Bubbles Influence Corporate Investment?
Author: Simon Gilchrist
Publisher:
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2004
Genre: Capital investments
ISBN:

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Building on recent developments in behavioral asset pricing, we develop a model in which dispersion of investor beliefs under short-selling constraints drives a firm's stock price above its fundamental value. Managers optimally respond to the stock market bubble by issuing new equity. The bubble reduces the user-cost of capital and increase real investment. Using the variance of analysts' earnings forecasts as a proxy for the dispersion of investor beliefs, we find strong empirical support for the model's key prediction that increases in dispersion cause increases in new equity issuance, Tobin's Q, and real investment.

Aftershock

Aftershock
Author: David Wiedemer
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 290
Release: 2009-11-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470572906

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From the authors who predicted with unmatched precision the domino impacts of the real estate, stock market, and other bubbles that led to 2008's market meltdown comes the definitive look at what is still to come and what investors can do to protect themselves Just as many are wrongly forecasting a full recovery ahead, Aftershock, now updated and revised, warns of a very different economic future. Home prices and stocks will continue to fall, inflation and unemployment will rise, and the current recession will not automatically cycle back to recovery. Unlike most books, Aftershock goes beyond the outdated notion of "market cycles" to help readers clearly recognize and quickly respond to the rapidly evolving economy. Instead of going back to how things were before, we are moving forward through uncharted territory, with new challenges and opportunities few people anticipate. The book shows you how to: Protect assets before and during the second wave of the financial meltdown Make wise investment decisions regarding stocks, bonds, real estate, and more Know which jobs, careers, and businesses will fare the best Profit from the collapsing bubbles Other titles by Wiedemer, Wiedemer, and Spitzer: America's Bubble Economy Aftershock is easy-to-read, entertaining, and practical book guides readers to seek safety and profits in these evolving economic conditions.

Bubbles and Capital Flows

Bubbles and Capital Flows
Author: Jaume Ventura
Publisher:
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2002
Genre: Capital movements
ISBN:

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This paper presents a stylized model of international trade and asset price bubbles. Its central insight is that bubbles tend to appear and expand in countries where productivity is low relative to the rest of the world. These bubbles absorb local savings, eliminating inefficient investments and liberating resources that are in part used to invest in high productivity countries. Through this channel, bubbles act as substitute for international capital flows, improving the international allocation of investment and reducing rate-of-return differentials across countries. This view of asset price bubbles has important implications for the way we think about economic growth and fluctuations. It also provides a simple account of some real world phenomenae that have been difficult to model before, such as the recurrence and depth of financial crises or their puzzling tendency to propagate across countries