Interpreting the Great Moderation

Interpreting the Great Moderation
Author: Steven J. Davis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2008
Genre: Economic stabilization
ISBN:

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"We review evidence on the Great Moderation in conjunction with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level. We combine the two types of evidence to develop a tentative story for important components of the aggregate volatility decline and its consequences. The key ingredients are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility -- most dramatically in the durable goods sector -- but the absence of a decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less important, a shift in production and employment from goods to services. We provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm-level and aggregate volatility. Consistent with this view, if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s much of the moderation reflects a decline in high frequency (short-term) fluctuations. While these developments represent efficiency gains, they do not imply (nor is there evidence for) a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site

On the Sources of the Great Moderation

On the Sources of the Great Moderation
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher:
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2008
Genre: United States
ISBN:

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"The remarkable decline in macroeconomic volatility experienced by the U.S. economy since the mid-80s (the so-called Great Moderation) has been accompanied by large changes in the patterns of comovements among output, hours and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. Among other changes, our findings point to (i) an increase in the volatility of hours relative to output, (ii) a shrinking contribution of non-technology shocks to output volatility, and (iii) a change in the cyclical response of labor productivity to those shocks. That evidence suggests a more complex picture than that associated with "good luck" explanations of the Great Moderation"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site

Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence

Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence
Author: Giorgio Canarella
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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The Great Moderation, the significant decline in the variability of economic activity, provides a most remarkable feature of the macroeconomic landscape in the last twenty years. A number of papers document the beginning of the Great Moderation in the US and the UK. In this paper, we use the Markov regime-switching models of Hamilton (1989) and Hamilton and Susmel (1994) to document the end of the Great Moderation. The Great Moderation in the US and the UK begin at different point in time. The explanations for the Great Moderation fall into generally three different categories - good monetary policy, improved inventory management, or good luck. Summers (2005) argues that a combination of good monetary policy and better inventory management led to the Great Moderation. The end of the Great Moderation, however, occurs at approximately the same time in both the US and the UK. It seems unlikely that good monetary policy would turn into bad policy or that better inventory management would turn into worse management. Rather, the likely explanation comes from bad luck. Two likely culprits exist - energy-price and housing-price shocks.

The Great Moderation in the Euro Area

The Great Moderation in the Euro Area
Author: Laura González Cabanillas
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2008
Genre: European Union countries
ISBN:

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Most OECD countries have experienced a sharp reduction in the volatility of output and inflation over the past three decades. Although this great moderation process has stirred considerable interest in economic and policy circles, research on its causes has so far tended to focus on the US economy and has produced relatively little empirical evidence on the euro area or other non-US OECD countries. This paper contributes to fill in the gap by providing a euro-area view of the great moderation process and by assessing the euro-area experience against developments in other OECD countries. Its main focus is on the possible role of macroeconomic policies. After reviewing a set of key stylised facts of the fall in output growth volatility in the euro area, the paper discusses the possible channels through which economic policies may have contributed to the great moderation and presents the results of an econometric panel analysis of the determinants of output growth volatility. Its main conclusion is that the great moderation is not just the result of a long period of luck in the form of milder shocks but can also partly be ascribed to changes in economic policies, in particular improvements in the conduct of monetary policy and, to a lesser extent, more powerful automatic fiscal stabilisers. In particular, reflecting considerably worse starting positions, improvements in the conduct of monetary policies have been much larger in several Member States than in the US over the past three decades, bringing larger gains in terms of output stability. To a lesser degree, stronger automatic stabilisers also seem to have contributed to the moderation of output fluctuations in some euro-area countries.

Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation

Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation
Author: Willem Van Zandweghe
Publisher:
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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What caused the U.S. economy's shift from the Great Inflation era to the Great Moderation era? A large literature shows that the shift was achieved by the change in monetary policy from a passive to an active response to inflation. However, Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2011) attribute the shift to a fall in trend inflation along with the policy change, based on a solely estimated Taylor rule and a calibrated staggered-price model. We estimate the Taylor rule and the staggered-price model jointly and demonstrate that the change in monetary policy responses to inflation and other variables suffices for explaining the shift.

Do Expectations Matter? The Great Moderation Revisited

Do Expectations Matter? The Great Moderation Revisited
Author: Fabio Canova
Publisher:
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations explain the dynamics of inflation and of interest rates but their importance is roughly unchanged over time. Systems with and without expectations display similar reduced form characteristics. Including or excluding expectations hardly changes the economic explanation of the Great Moderation. Results are robust to changes in the structure of the empirical model.