International Monetary Policy Spillovers and Responses

International Monetary Policy Spillovers and Responses
Author: The People's Bank of China (PBC)
Publisher:
Total Pages: 4
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper briefly discusses the view of the People's Bank of China (PBC) on the spillover effects of the monetary policies of advanced economies and on the policy responses of emerging market economies. The paper also explains China's policy measures to combat these spillover effects, and calls for closer international policy coordination and cooperation.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2498104" target="_blank" The Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy to the Emerging Markets.

U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Middle East and Central Asia: Shocks, Fundamentals, and Propagations

U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Middle East and Central Asia: Shocks, Fundamentals, and Propagations
Author: Giovanni Ugazio
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2024-01-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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We empirically examine U.S. monetary policy spillovers to the Middle East and Central Asia (ME & CA) region by decomposing U.S. interest rates changes into two orthogonal shocks: the pure monetary policy shock and the information news shock. Using a sample of 16 ME & CA countries, we find that when interest rates increase, the two shocks have opposite spillovers on the region. Tightening driven by contractionary monetary policy shocks hinders growth, while tightening driven by positive information news shocks boosts growth despite higher interest rates. Countries with weaker fundamentals face more negative spillovers from contractionary monetary policy shocks but may sometimes benefit more from positive information news shocks. Moreover, high oil prices mitigate both spillovers for oil exporters while global risk appetite amplifies both spillovers. Finally, we estimate a large degree of heterogeneity in the impact of the 2022 U.S. tightening cycle on ME & CA countries, with oil exporters with stronger fundamentals withstanding well the shock and oil importers with weaker fundamentals being hit the most.

Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets

Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets
Author: Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2014-12-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 149832245X

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The impact of monetary policy in large advanced countries on emerging market economies—dubbed spillovers—is hotly debated in global and national policy circles. When the U.S. resorted to unconventional monetary policy, spillovers on asset prices and capital flows were significant, though remained smaller in countries with better fundamentals. This was not because monetary policy shocks changed (in size, sign or impact on stance). In fact, the traditional signaling channel of monetary policy continued to play the leading role in transmitting shocks, relative to other channels, affecting longer-term bond yields. Instead, we find that larger spillovers stem more from structural factors, such as the use of new instruments (asset purchases). We obtain these results by developing a new methodology to extract, separate, and interpret U.S. monetary policy shocks.

Big Players Out of Synch

Big Players Out of Synch
Author: Carolina Osorio Buitron
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2015-09-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513596705

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Given the prospects of asynchronous monetary conditions in the United States and the euro area, this paper analyzes spillovers among these two economies, as well as the implications of asynchronicity for spillovers to other advanced economies and emerging markets. Through a structural vector autoregression analysis, country-specific shocks to economic activity and monetary conditions since the early 1990s are identified, and are used to draw implications about spillovers. The empirical findings suggest that real and monetary conditions in the United States and the euro area have oftentimes been asynchronous. The results also point to significant spillovers among them, in particular since early 2014—with spillovers from the euro area to the United States being particularly large. Against the backdrop of asynchronous conditions in these two economies, spillovers from real and money shocks to emerging markets and non-systemic advanced economies could be dampened.

International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks

International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks
Author: Callum Jones
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 43
Release: 2018-05-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484356616

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After 2007, countries that cut their policy interest rates close to zero turned, among other policies, to forward guidance. We estimate a two-country model of the U.S. and Canada to quantify how unexpected changes in U.S. forward guidance affected Canada. Expansionary U.S. forward guidance shocks, like conventional policy shocks, are beggar-thy-neighbor and depress Canadian output, but by twice as much as conventional shocks. We find that the effect of U.S. forward guidance shocks on Canadian output, unlike conventional policy shocks, depends on the state of U.S. demand and can be five times smaller when U.S. demand is weak.

Addressing Spillovers from Prolonged U.S. Monetary Policy Easing

Addressing Spillovers from Prolonged U.S. Monetary Policy Easing
Author: Stephen Cecchetti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2021-07-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513584499

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There is growing recognition that prolonged monetary policy easing of major economies can have extraterritorial spillovers, driving up financial system leverage in other countries. When faced with such a rise of threats to financial stability, what can countries do? Specifically, is there a role for macroprudential tools, capital controls or foreign exchange intervention in safeguarding financial stability from risks arising externally? We examine the efficacy of these policy interventions by exploring whether preemptive or reactive policy interventions can mitigate such risks. Using a sample of 950 bank and nonbank financial firms across 28 non-U.S. economies over the past two decades, we show that if policymakers are able to implement policies prior to an additional consecutive decline in U.S. interest rates, financial institutions do not increase their leverage by as much as they otherwise would. By contrast, it is more difficult to counter the spillovers with reactive policy interventions. In practice, however, policymakers need to remain cautious about the timing of preventative tightening, especially when their economies face large negative shocks such as a pandemic.

Consolidated Spillover Report - Implications from the Analysis of the Systemic-5

Consolidated Spillover Report - Implications from the Analysis of the Systemic-5
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 10
Release: 2011-11-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498338712

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Spillover reports explore the external effects of policies in five systemic economies based on the issues identified by partners. Without reprising all the results and nuances, this paper draws some overarching lessons from the exercise for the global policy debate.

Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy

Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy
Author: Naoyuki Yoshino
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 345
Release: 2019
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0198838107

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Barely two decades after the Asian financial crisis Asia was suddenly confronted with multiple challenges originating outside the region: the 2008 global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and finally developed economies' implementation of unconventional monetary policies. The implementation of quantitative easing, ultra-low interest rate policies, and negative interest rate policies by a number of large central banks has given rise to concerns over financial stability and international capital flows. Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy: Impacts on Emerging Markets explains how shocks stemming from the global financial crisis have affected macroeconomic and financial stability in emerging Asia. Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy: Impacts on Emerging Markets brings together the most up-to-date knowledge impacts of recent macroeconomic shocks on Asia's real economy; the spillover effects of macroeconomic shocks on financial markets and flows in Asia; and key challenges for monetary, exchange rate, trade and macro prudential policies of developing Asian economies. It is authored by experts in the field of international macroeconomics from leading academic institutions, central banks, and international organizations including the International Monetary Fund, the Bank for International Settlement, and the Asian Development Bank Institute.

Rules for International Monetary Stability

Rules for International Monetary Stability
Author: Michael D. Bordo
Publisher: Hoover Press
Total Pages: 381
Release: 2017-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0817920560

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Since the end of the Great Recession in 2009 the central banks of the advanced countries have taken unprecedented actions to reflate and stimulate their economies. There have been significant differences in the timing and pace of these actions. These independent monetary policy actions have had significant spillover effects on the economies and monetary policy strategies of other advanced countries. In addition the monetary policy actions and interventions of the advanced countries have had a significant impact on the emerging market economies leading to the charge of 'currency wars.' The perceived negative consequences of spillovers from the actions of national central banks has led to calls for international monetary policy coordination. The arguments for coordination based on game theory are the same today as back in the 1980s, which led to accords which required that participant countries follow policies to improve global welfare at the expense of domestic fundamentals. This led to disastrous consequences. An alternative approach to the international spillovers of national monetary policy actions is to view them as deviations from rules based monetary policy. In this view a return to rules based monetary policy and a rolling back of the " global great deviation" by each country's central bank would lead to a beneficial policy outcome without the need for explicit policy coordination. In this book we report the results from a recent conference which brought together academics, market participants, and policy makers to focus on these issues. The consensus of much of the conference was on the need for a classic rules based reform of the international monetary system.

U.S. Monetary Policy Shock Spillovers: Evidence from Firm-Level Data

U.S. Monetary Policy Shock Spillovers: Evidence from Firm-Level Data
Author: Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 69
Release: 2022-09-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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We examine three main channels through which U.S. monetary policy shocks affect firm investment in foreign countries: (1) the balance sheet channel; (2) the financial channel of the exchange rate; and (3) the trade channel. For this purpose, we use quarterly firm-level data for 63 advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) over 1996-2016. Our results suggest an important and independent role for all three key channels. U.S. monetary policy shocks have larger effects on investment for firms that are more leveraged (balance sheet channel), for firms that have a higher share of debt in foreign currency (financial channel of the exchange rate), and for firms that operate in sectors with higher export dependence (trade channel). Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the balance sheet channel is the most important channel of transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks on aggregate firm investment.