Long-Term Investing and International Diversification

Long-Term Investing and International Diversification
Author: Mattias Persson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2002
Genre:
ISBN:

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The gains from international diversification are a well-established fact. In this study a non-parametric moving block bootstrap is used to investigate if investors with long investment horizons should tilt their portfolio weights towards the international stock markets. Through this approach we are able to study the impact of estimation risk on the optimal weights in the assets, and over the investment horizons. The analysis shows that the investors gain more from internationally diversified portfolios if the investment horizon is longer, that is, the weight in the international assets are significantly higher for long investment horizons compared to the one-year horizon.

Estimating the Gains from International Diversification

Estimating the Gains from International Diversification
Author: Juan Pablo Afanador
Publisher:
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2021
Genre:
ISBN:

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For pension funds, international assets represent an opportunity to improve their returns while possibly reducing risks. Nonetheless, pension funds in many developing countries face regulations that limit the choice of international investments. This paper proposes a new methodology to estimate the gains from international diversification in which the optimal asset allocation of pension funds is constrained by financial frictions. The empirical strategy is applied to the aggregate holdings of pension funds in a large group of countries to calculate the gains from increasing the current level of exposure to international securities. The methodology should give policy makers the opportunity to identify jurisdictions where pension funds could benefit the most from expanding their foreign holdings.

Long-Run International Diversification

Long-Run International Diversification
Author: Thomas Conlon
Publisher:
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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The evidence for international diversification as a means to curtail portfolio risk relies predominantly on short-run data. In this paper, we examine the extent to which the risk reduction benefits of international investment hold in the long-run. Employing a multi-horizon non-parametric filter, we develop a long-run correlation estimator and exploit this to decompose the long-run inter-market relationship into short-run components. We observe raised correlations between international equity indices in the long-run. Investigating the economic significance for investors, we find the long-run benefits of international diversification to be attenuated. Increasing long-run correlation is modeled as a function of short-run data accounting for characteristics pervasive in financial time series. This indicates that perceived risk reduction benefits may be overstated using short-run data.

Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice

Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice
Author: Sanjiv Ranjan Das
Publisher:
Total Pages: 55
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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Returns on international equities are characterized by jumps; moreover, these jumps tend to occur at the same time across countries leading to systemic risk. In this paper, we evaluate whether systemic risk reduces substantially the gains from international diversification. First, in order to capture these stylized facts, we develop a model of international equity returns using a multivariate system of jump-diffusion processes where the arrival of jumps is simultaneous across assets. Second, we determine an investor's optimal portfolio for this model of returns. Third, we show how one can estimate the model using the method of moments. Finally, we illustrate our portfolio optimization and estimation procedure by analyzing portfolio choice across a riskless asset, the US equity index, and five international indexes. Our main finding is that, while systemic risk affects the allocation of wealth between the riskless and risky assets, it has a small effect on the composition of the portfolio of only-risky assets, and reduces marginally the gains to a US investor from international diversification: For an investor with a relative risk aversion of 3 and a horizon of one year, the certainty-equivalent cost of ignoring systemic risk is of the order $1 for every $1000 of initial investment. These results are robust to whether the international indexes are for developed or emerging countries, to constraints on borrowing and shortselling, and to reasonable deviations in the value of the parameters around their point estimates; the cost increases with the investment horizon and decreases with risk aversion.

International Diversification Opportunities for Real Estate Investment Portfolios

International Diversification Opportunities for Real Estate Investment Portfolios
Author: Onousa Boontanorm
Publisher:
Total Pages: 72
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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This thesis explores the topic of diversification opportunities in international real estate, with focus on private real estate markets in developed countries. In examining the characteristics of returns and interrelatedness between international real estate, stocks and bonds markets from the time period spanning 2000 to 2009, we find that 2008 was the only year within the past decade in which several countries saw synchronized negative returns on a calendar year basis in the stocks and real estate markets, and even so the synchronized negative returns was only experienced by half of the countries within the 10-country opportunity set. The amplitude of the peak to trough drop in the cumulative value of the assets was small in real estate on average relative to that of stocks. These findings suggest that investors' should benefit from holding international real estate within their portfolios, even in an extreme down market. Modern portfolio theory is used to analyze and compare ex-ante diversification opportunities in international real estate, stocks and bonds and domestic diversification opportunities for the three asset classes from the perspectives of U.S. and European investors. We project expected returns for each of the markets and used historical risks (volatility) from the 2000-2009 period as estimates for volatility. When returns are calculated in local currencies, international diversification in the real estate portfolio (diversified within a 10-country opportunity set) should help U.S. investors substantially improve their portfolio risk-return efficiency relative to domestic diversification (within a 6-metropolitan area opportunity set), as the markets within the U.S. domestic opportunity set provide unattractive risk-return efficiency and their movements are highly correlated. By contrast, European investors will benefit less from the same international diversification strategy relative to domestic diversification (within 5 Eurozone countries) as several Eurozone markets are able to provide considerable risk-return efficiency and low correlations can be found in some pairs of markets. Applying home bias and limits on exposure to any single country i.e. country caps to the portfolio allocation helps to balance the allocation weights for the investor's portfolio but also significantly limits the investor's ability to take advantage of diversification opportunities provided by the international markets. When returns are calculated in the investors' domestic currencies, additional currency risk increases the portfolio volatility without providing additional expected return, reducing diversification benefits of international real estate. Even so, international diversification potential to U.S. investors should still be considerable, while that to European investors' should be minimal.

International Diversification, Reallocation, and the Labor Share

International Diversification, Reallocation, and the Labor Share
Author: Joel M. David
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre:
ISBN:

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How does growing international financial diversification affect firm-level and aggregate labor shares? We study this question using a novel framework of firm labor choice in the face of aggregate risk. The theory implies a cross-section of labor risk premia and labor shares that appear as markups in firm-level data. International risk sharing leads to a reallocation of labor towards riskier/low labor share firms alongside a rise in within-firm labor shares, matching key micro-level facts. We use cross-country firm-level data to document a number of empirical patterns consistent with the theory, namely: (i) riskier firms have lower labor shares and (ii) international financial diversification is associated with a reallocation towards risky/low labor share firms. Our estimates suggest the reallocation effect has dominated the within effect in recent decades; on net, increased financial integration has reduced the corporate labor share in the US by about 2.5 percentage points, roughly one-third of the total decline since the 1970s.

International Asset Pricing and Portfolio Diversification with Time-Varying Risk

International Asset Pricing and Portfolio Diversification with Time-Varying Risk
Author: Giorgio De Santis
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2001
Genre:
ISBN:

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We test the conditional CAPM for the world's eight largest equity markets using a parsimonious GARCH parameterization. Our methodology can be applied simultaneously to many assets and, at the same time, accommodate general dynamics of the conditional moments. The evidence supports most of the pricing restrictions of the model, but some of the variation in risk-adjusted excess returns remains predictable during periods of high interest rates. Our estimates indicate that, although severe market declines are contagious, the expected gains from international diversification for a U.S. investor average 2.11% per year and have not significantly declined over the last two decades.