International Business Cycles G7 And Oecd Countries
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Author | : Marcelle Chauvet |
Publisher | : DIANE Publishing |
Total Pages | : 12 |
Release | : 2009-05 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1437900453 |
Download International Business Cycles: G7 and OECD Countries Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The globalization of markets has sparked a worldwide interest in using economic indicators to analyze cyclical fluctuations. Governments and the private sector could benefit from internat. indicators that serve as a warning system to detect recessions in major economic partners and in industrialized countries as whole. This article constructs just such a warning system. The authors construct business cycle indicators for G7 countries and for an aggregate measure of output by 29 member countries of the OECD. The model yields probabilities of the current bus. cycle phase for each G7 country and for the aggregate OECD and G7 output measures and reveals a common cycle underlying the OECD countries that characterizes an internat. bus. cycle.
Author | : Mr.Ayhan Kose |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 51 |
Release | : 2008-06-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451870019 |
Download Global Business Cycles Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Author | : Marcus Kappler |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 197 |
Release | : 2012-07-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 3790828556 |
Download Business Cycle Synchronisation and Economic Integration Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the integration process that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in East and Southern Europe.
Author | : OECD |
Publisher | : OECD Publishing |
Total Pages | : 162 |
Release | : 2008-08-22 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9264043462 |
Download Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
A guide for constructing and using composite indicators for policy makers, academics, the media and other interested parties. In particular, this handbook is concerned with indicators which compare and rank country performance.
Author | : Khurshid M. Kiani |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 134 |
Release | : 2009 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Download Business Cycle Fluctuations and Economic Policy Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This book highlights the importance of studying similarity of business cycles across countries and answers the theoretical question about the behaviour of fluctuations in economic activity over different phases of business cycles. This is done by analysing cross-country data that provides sufficient empirical justifications on the behaviour of economic activity to conclude that business cycles are alike. Further, the book maintains, from the recent empirical research, that business cycles fluctuations are asymmetric. For empirical validation of the hypothesis that business cycles are asymmetric at least in the group of seven highly developed industrialised (G7) countries, real GDP growth rates from these countries are analysed using non-linear time series and switching time series models as well as in-sample and jack-knife out-of-sample forecasts from neural networks. While importance and application of non-linear and switching time series models are employed for testing possible existence of business cycle asymmetries in all the series after taking into account long memory, conditional heteroskedasticity, and time varying volatility in the series, usefulness of non-parametric techniques such as artificial neural networks forecasts are discussed and empirically tested to conclude that forecasts from neural networks are superior to the selected time series models. Additionally, the book presents a robust evidence of business cycle asymmetries in G7 countries, which is indeed, the answer to the basic research question on the behaviour of economic fluctuation over the business cycles. The book compares spill over and contagion effects due to business cycle fluctuations within the countries studied. In addition, having known the type of business cycle asymmetries, policy makers, empirical researchers, and forecasters would be able to employ appropriate forecasting models for forecasting impact of monetary policy or any other shock on the economies of these countries.
Author | : Hsieh Fushing |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2013 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-Parametric Decoding Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper introduces a new empirical strategy for the characterization of business cycles. It combines non-parametric decoding methods that classify a series into expansions and recessions but does not require specification of the underlying stochastic process generating the data. It then uses network analysis to combine the signals obtained from different economic indicators to generate a unique chronology. These methods generate a record of peak and trough dates comparable, and in one sense superior, to the NBER's own chronology. The methods are then applied to 22 OECD countries to obtain a global business cycle chronology.
Author | : Hyungdo Ahn |
Publisher | : KIEP |
Total Pages | : 76 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Download Dynamics of Open Economy Business Cycle Models Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Author | : Michael J. Artis |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 64 |
Release | : 1995 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Download Classical Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Author | : Marianne Baxter |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 80 |
Release | : 1995 |
Genre | : Business cycles |
ISBN | : |
Download International Trade and Business Cycles Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Virtually all economies experience recurrent fluctuations in economic activity that persist for periods of several quarters to several years. Further, there is a definite tendency for the business cycles of developed countries to move together--there is a world component to business cycles. This paper argues that capital accumulation and international capital flows are central to understanding world trade and business cycles. In particular, fluctuations in net exports and the current account are shown to be dominated by trade in capital goods. The paper develops a two country model of international trade within which capital accumulation and international investment flows play a central role. We explore the channels by which technology shocks and fiscal shocks are transmitted to the domestic and foreign economies, and discuss the extent to which these results are sensitive to individuals' opportunities for international trade in financial assets. Overall, we find that the models capture many of the salient features of international business cycles. However, it has proven consistently difficult to generate sufficient comovement across countries in labor input and investment. The paper concludes with a discussion of fruitful directions for future research.
Author | : Oumar Diallo |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 26 |
Release | : 2014-02-14 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484306597 |
Download Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA’s business cycle has not only moved in the same direction as that of the RoW, but has also gradually drifted away from the G7 in favour of the BRICs. Trade with the BRICs turns out to be the strongest driver of this shift. Much of this impact unfolds through aggregate demand impulse from trade. As fiscal policy stances in SSA and the BRICs are not synchronized, they have not caused cyclical output correlation between these two groups of countries. Also, financial openness, which is at a very early stage across most SSA countries, has acted as a neutral force.