Integrating Statistical and System Dynamics Modelling to Analyse the Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

Integrating Statistical and System Dynamics Modelling to Analyse the Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia
Author: Muhamad Bahri
Publisher:
Total Pages: 431
Release: 2017
Genre: Climatic changes
ISBN:

Download Integrating Statistical and System Dynamics Modelling to Analyse the Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Climate change, manifested as temperature rise and rainfall change, will pose significant challenges to rice farmers, leading to a possible rice shortage under a changing climate. This research aims to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on rice production through the rest of this century using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and combination of statistical and system dynamic modelling. The area of study is West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. Wetland and dryland farming types are assessed separately because they have different rice varieties and different agricultural practices. Overall, the research seeks to answer the question: How will climate change and climate variability affect rice production? Additional questions investigated are (1) What are the most significant supply uncertainties associated with a changing climate? and (2) What are possible solutions for reducing the impacts of climate change on rice production?. To answer these research questions, this study deals with three main research areas. First, based on observed data (1976-2011), this study developed regression-based statistical models in understanding the impacts of climate change on rice yield in West Nusa Tenggara. Statistical models find that the negative impacts of increased minimum temperature on rice yield are statistically significant. By contrast, the effects of maximum temperature on rice yield are not statistically significant. A key reason for this is that the highest maximum temperature (320C) in the observed period (1976-2011) was lower than 350C, a rice threshold for maximum temperature. By 2090 (2077-2100), rice yield in wetland and dryland is projected to decrease by about 3% (RCP2.6 scenario), 4% (RCP4.5 scenario), 5% (RCP6.0 scenario) and 14% (RCP8.5 scenario). Second, a system dynamics model was developed to assess the impacts of climate change on three issues including rice yield, harvested areas and rice production by 2090 (2077-2100)...

Water and Environment for Sustainability

Water and Environment for Sustainability
Author: Naeem Shahzad
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 228
Release: 2023-05-02
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3031272803

Download Water and Environment for Sustainability Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The International Conference on Water, Energy, and Environment for Sustainability (IC-WEES) 2022 is a flagship conference of National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Pakistan. With the growing global concerns about environmental degradation, depletion of freshwater resources, and climate change-induced disasters, this year the IC-WEES is focused on climate change, water, environment, and disaster risk reduction (DRR) and their interrelationship with each other. Given the continuous evolution of contemporary scientific research work, it is progressively encouraging that there must be strong collaboration between experts, researchers, and research sharing platforms. Believing in this, the IC-WEES 2022 aims to bring expert individuals and diverse research groups to exchange and share R&D updates and discuss sustainable solutions to challenges in climate change, DRR, environment and water resources management, and respective nexuses between these fields. The conference proceedings consists of multi-disciplinary topics on the themes. As with every passing day, the climate change impacts are becoming visible, there is a dire need to understand the complex inter-relationships of climate changes, environment, water, and energy nexuses in order to lead to more sustainable solutions for our future generations. Our region is presently suffering from unprecedented heat waves, and prospective readers will be quite curious to know about the latest researches being carried out in this region with regard to environment, climate change, and water in order to reduce the disaster risks the continent is likely to face in near future.

Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Asia

Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Asia
Author: Robin B. Matthews
Publisher: Int. Rice Res. Inst.
Total Pages: 306
Release: 1995
Genre: Gardening
ISBN: 0851989594

Download Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Asia Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The book quantifies the impact of climate change on rice production using crop simulation models and integrates existing knowledge of the effects of increased levels of carbon dioxide and temperature. Detailed scenarios are provided for selected major rice-producing countries in Asia: Japan, India, Malaysia, South Korea, China and the Philippines.

Climate Change and Future Rice Production in India

Climate Change and Future Rice Production in India
Author: K. Palanisami
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 250
Release: 2019-07-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9811383634

Download Climate Change and Future Rice Production in India Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This book explains in depth the issues and challenges faced by rice farmers in India in relation to production and productivity, and the possible adaptation strategies to climate change. Based on five years of groundbreaking research on emerging trends in cultivation in major rice growing regions in India, it begins by describing production and yield trends across different rice growing regions. It then offers a comprehensive review of relevant literature and the quantification methodologies and approaches used to analyze the impact of climate change. The book also analyzes climate change impacts on rice productivity and production, applying field-tested quantification methods, such as the Just-Pope production function where time series and cross-section data are simultaneously used for all regions. The results are presented for five geographical regions of India – northern, eastern, western, central and southern – for better comparison and readability. The analyses cover scenarios for both mid-century (2021–2050) and end-century (2071–2100), and in the context of climate change, they also incorporate both medium and high carbon emission scenarios. Thus the future rice production and productivity trends are clearly projected for making necessary interventions. Lastly, the book outlines the essentials of an enabling environment policy and discusses the institutional and policy options necessary to ensure sustainable rice production in India. It also makes the case for introducing appropriate and affordable adaptation strategies to support farmers in different rice-growing regions. The cost–benefit analysis of strategies presented in this book provides an invaluable tool for officials at agriculture departments planning up-scaling of agricultural productivity. The projections are also useful for policy makers and planners developing future investment plans to support rice production in their country. Overall, this book is of interest to a wide audience, including professionals and business enterprises dealing with rice, as well as to academic researchers and students.

Climate Change and Rice

Climate Change and Rice
Author: Shaobing Peng
Publisher: Int. Rice Res. Inst.
Total Pages: 379
Release: 1995-11-15
Genre: Nature
ISBN: 3540589066

Download Climate Change and Rice Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Issues of global climate change; Emission of greenhouse gases; Ultraviolet-B radiation; Carbon dioxide and temperature; Simulation modeling.

Optimizing Rice Crop Models by Integrating Field Based Data on Phenology and Agroclimatology

Optimizing Rice Crop Models by Integrating Field Based Data on Phenology and Agroclimatology
Author: Hussain Sharifi
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN: 9781339824307

Download Optimizing Rice Crop Models by Integrating Field Based Data on Phenology and Agroclimatology Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Rice (Oryza Sativa L.) is a major staple food for nearly half of the world's population. Rice is cultivated under diverse environments, from tropics to temperate regions, at latitude ranging from 35S to 53N. However, the recent and ongoing global warming poses a great risk to rice production. Dynamic crop growth models are frequently used to study the response of crops to variation in environmental conditions, including climate change. Crop phenology affects simulated crop yield; thus, accurate modeling of development rates is critical, since these models estimate dry matter production based on the developmental rates during a given period. Developmental rates affect yields in different ways. For example, rice generally develops faster under higher temperatures, which may reduce growth and lead to a lower yield potential. On the other hand, using a shorter duration crop may help avoid pest damage, escape drought, or optimize the cropping system. In the first chapter of this dissertation, we evaluated different optimization approaches in the Oryza2000 and CERES-Rice phenology sub-models to assess the importance of optimizing cardinal temperatures for model performance and systematic error (correlation between temperature and phenology prediction error). We used two optimization approaches -- single-stage (planting to heading) and three-stage (planting to panicle initiation (PI); PI to heading (HD); and HD to physiological maturity (MT)) -- for all model parameters. Our results indicate that three-stage optimization increased model accuracy, especially for maturity stage. We also show that optimization to minimize systematic error reduced bias when RMSE was constrained. However, relatively small systematic error was found for all phenological stages compared to previous studies. Finally, our results demonstrated that cardinal temperature optimization had no effect on systematic error reductionIn the second chapter of this dissertation, we developed a simple thermal time model to determine if optimal temperature parameter values differ among developmental stages in rice, and to quantify the effect of using stage-dependent temperature parameters on model performance and systematic error relative to using a constant optimized temperature parameters across all stages. Our results indicate that temperature dependence in rice phenology changes with development-stage. Furthermore, we show that rice is most responsive to temperature between planting to panicle initiation and optimum temperature threshold increases with plant development. Therefore, optimizing cardinal temperature parameters for each stage improves phenology model accuracy; stage-dependent temperature parameters reduced bias in phenology models. In the final chapter of this dissertation, we compared the use of water (T[subscript w]) and air (T[subscript a]) temperatures in a rice phenology model. Specifically, we evaluate whether T[subscript w] has the stronger influence on development rate when the growing point is under water, while T[subscript a] is more important when the growing point is above the water. We found that T[subscript w] and T[subscript a] influence rice development but at different times. During the first part of the season when the growing apex is under water T[subscript w] determines developmental rates, while later in the season it is T[subscript a]. Incorporating both T[subscript w] and T[subscript a] into crop development models increased the prediction accuracy. Our study demonstrates that it was maximum temperature differences between T[subscript w] and T[subscript a] that affected thermal time accumulation and consequently developmental rates.

Climate Change Modelling, Planning and Policy for Agriculture

Climate Change Modelling, Planning and Policy for Agriculture
Author: Anil Kumar Singh
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 252
Release: 2015-03-16
Genre: Science
ISBN: 8132221575

Download Climate Change Modelling, Planning and Policy for Agriculture Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

It is well known that the impacts of climate change are tangible and hence there can be no debate about the need for appropriate adaptation measures, on a priority basis. However, it is equally important to recognize the fact that adaptation measures actually represent a dynamic synthesis of interventions pertaining to multiple systems. These are particularly of water, soil characteristics, genotypic and phenotypic variations and their expressions, age-correlated biochemical changes aligned with planting schedules and favorable weather/climate conditions. Nutrients, occurrence and distribution of associated vegetation including crop mixes also influence productivity. The overarching aspect of farming practice wields significant influence on the outcome and hence it is important to be clear about the particular focus of the investigations being carried out and reported in a suitable manner. It is essential to recognize that scientific research in agriculture in India has always produced valuable results of direct relevance to her people. Importantly, preparedness to tackle disasters due to inclement weather system has prominently featured on the agenda. The recent focus on climate change and impacts has provided the necessary impetus to reorganize the framework of investigation to capture the specifics of such impacts. In this context, the importance of micro climate variations too viz-a-viz the larger scales of impacts cannot be overemphasized. It will be useful to also help characterize natural variations versus artificially induced variations, helping us understand the complexities of individual and synergistic impacts too. Obviously, the limits and limitations of models could determine the spread and depth of the outcomes of investigations. Empirical evidences to reinforce assumptions have to also be documented with utmost care; guided by an understanding of the limits of tolerance, limiting factors, and the precautionary principle especially in the public policy interface. The present volume therefore, showcases these strands with the fond hope that they will stimulate further thinking and enable appropriate action.

Modelling the impacts of policy interventions for agrifood systems transformation in Indonesia

Modelling the impacts of policy interventions for agrifood systems transformation in Indonesia
Author: Woolfrey, S.
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org. [Author] [Author]
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2024-06-20
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 9251388555

Download Modelling the impacts of policy interventions for agrifood systems transformation in Indonesia Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The Government of Indonesia and FAO have recognized the need for thorough analysis and modelling of Indonesia’s agrifood systems to support agrifood systems transformation efforts in the country. This is needed to provide a better understanding of the governance context in agrifood systems, including the political economy dynamics influencing performance, as well as to identify synergies and trade-offs across different policy goals and optimal policy mixes for achieving multiple policy objectives. In this regard, FAO facilitated a project to pilot an innovative approach to modelling for food systems transformation. This modelling approach was developed and implemented by a team of researchers from IFPRI, IIASA, IISD and Christian-Albrechts- University of Kiel. It uses three different economic models to generate insights that can assist Indonesian policymakers in developing technically sound and politically feasible policy interventions for agrifood systems transformation. This report provides context for agrifood systems transformation in Indonesia and describes the overall modelling approach before synthesizing the results of the individual modelling activities and distilling these into the overall findings of the modelling. It concludes with implications from these findings for policymaking for agrifood systems transformation in Indonesia and suggestions for the next steps. The results of this modelling and the insights drawn from these results are expected to support efforts to translate Indonesia’s commitments on agrifood systems transformation into concrete policy interventions and to inform medium- and long-term development planning by the Indonesian Government.

Impacts of Climate Change on Self-sufficiency of Rice in China

Impacts of Climate Change on Self-sufficiency of Rice in China
Author: Yu Liu
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Impacts of Climate Change on Self-sufficiency of Rice in China Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Climate change would pose a direct and severe challenge to China's rice production and self-sufficiency. Here we use Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the self-sufficiency of rice in China due to 2 °C rise in temperature, and further analyze the impact and transmission mechanisms of climate change through market and trade. Our simulation method switches different regional mechanisms in the GTAP model by employing alternative closures and scenarios. Our results suggest that the fluctuation in rice price is much larger than that of rice production. The active regional feedback mechanism has much larger effects than the passive one in assessing climate change impacts. With the passive regional feedback mechanism (Single Regional General Equilibrium, SRGE and Multi-Regional General Equilibrium with China's shock, MRGE_C), China's rice export would decrease by more than 8%, and import would increase by over 5%, which leads to a decrease in rice self-sufficiency by more than 0.06 percentage points. With the active regional feedback mechanism (Multi-Regional General Equilibrium with China's shock, MRGE_W), climate change will increase China's rice export by 2.7% as rising rice exports to South Korea overweight the export decrease to other countries, concurrently, China's rice import would decrease by 0.04%, which leads to a slight increase in rice self-sufficiency. As a whole, climate change will not severely threaten China's rice self-sufficiency. By the decomposition analysis, climate change impacts on China's rice self-sufficiency mainly depend on the changes in China's domestic rice production. Interestingly, the source of China's rice import will switch from Vietnam to Pakistan under MRGE_W, which derives from the input structure of paddy rice and rice sectors in different countries.

Climate Change Research, Policy and Actions in Indonesia

Climate Change Research, Policy and Actions in Indonesia
Author: Riyanti Djalante
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 328
Release: 2020-10-06
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3030555364

Download Climate Change Research, Policy and Actions in Indonesia Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This edited volume reviews the latest advances in policies and actions in understanding the science, impacts and management of climate change in Indonesia. ​Indonesia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change due to its geographical, physical, and social-economic situations. There are many initiatives to understand and deal with the impacts in the country. The national government has issued key guiding policies for climate change. International agencies together with local stakeholders are working on strengthening the capacity in the policy formulations and implement actions to build community resilience. Universities are conducting research on climate change related at different scales. Cities and local governments are implementing innovations in adapting to the impacts of climate change and transiting toward green economy. This book summarizes and discusses the state-of-the-art regarding climate change in Indonesia including adaptation and mitigation measures. The primary readership of the book includes policy makers, scientists and practitioners of climate change actions in Indonesia and other countries facing similar challenges. Chapter “Carbon Stocks from Peat Swamp Forest and Oil Palm Plantation in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia” is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.