New-Product Diffusion Models

New-Product Diffusion Models
Author: Vijay Mahajan
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 376
Release: 2000-09-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780792377511

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Product sales, especially for new products, are influenced by many factors. These factors are both internal and external to the selling organization, and are both controllable and uncontrollable. Due to the enormous complexity of such factors, it is not surprising that product failure rates are relatively high. Indeed, new product failure rates have variously been reported as between 40 and 90 percent. Despite this multitude of factors, marketing researchers have not been deterred from developing and designing techniques to predict or explain the levels of new product sales over time. The proliferation of the internet, the necessity or developing a road map to plan the launch and exit times of various generations of a product, and the shortening of product life cycles are challenging firms to investigate market penetration, or innovation diffusion, models. These models not only provide information on new product sales over time but also provide insight on the speed with which a new product is being accepted by various buying groups, such as those identified as innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. New Product Diffusion Models aims to distill, synthesize, and integrate the best thinking that is currently available on the theory and practice of new product diffusion models. This state-of-the-art assessment includes contributions by individuals who have been at the forefront of developing and applying these models in industry. The book's twelve chapters are written by a combined total of thirty-two experts who together represent twenty-five different universities and other organizations in Australia, Europe, Hong Kong, Israel, and the United States. The book will be useful for researchers and students in marketing and technological forecasting, as well as those in other allied disciplines who study relevant aspects of innovation diffusion. Practitioners in high-tech and consumer durable industries should also gain new insights from New Product Diffusion Models. The book is divided into five parts: I. Overview; II. Strategic, Global, and Digital Environments for Diffusion Analysis; III. Diffusion Models; IV. Estimation and V. Applications and Software. The final section includes a PC-based software program developed by Gary L. Lilien and Arvind Rangaswamy (1998) to implement the Bass diffusion model. A case on high-definition television is included to illustrate the various features of the software. A free, 15-day trial access period for the updated software can be downloaded from http://www.mktgeng.com/diffusionbook. Among the book's many highlights are chapters addressing the implications posed by the internet, globalization, and production policies upon diffusion of new products and technologies in the population.

Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior

Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior
Author: Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 616
Release: 2013-03-14
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3662027003

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Wee felt it before in sense; but now wee know it by science. Edward Misselden (1623) The collective effort reported in this volume is the outcome of the diffusion of the idea of diffusion as a fundamental process in society. The considerable number of disciplines represented here indicates the weight of the problem area. The editors are to be congratulated for their initiative in drawing together present thinking at a vivid meeting, now also in print. An old timer in the business has not much to add. But maybe some things, bearing in mind that a Preface is a celebration and not a review. As always with ideas it is hard to identify those who first gave shape to the idea of diffusion. In a general sense it is probably an observation as old as human self-reflection that groups of populations exchange ideas and copy habits and implements from each other. Sometimes it has even been recommended, as a Chinese proverb suggested millenia ago, "If you want to become a good farmer, look at your neighbor" .

Models for Innovation Diffusion

Models for Innovation Diffusion
Author: Vijay Mahajan
Publisher: SAGE
Total Pages: 92
Release: 1985
Genre: Reference
ISBN: 9780803921368

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Presents a powerful set of techniques for investigating the temporal diffusion process of any innovation. In addition, this volume outlines several widely used diffusion models and suggests their appropriate applications.

Gaining Momentum

Gaining Momentum
Author: Joseph Tidd
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 446
Release: 2010
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1848163541

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Diffusion, or the widespread adoption of innovations, is a critical yet under-researched topic. There is a wide gap between development and successful adoption of an innovation. Therefore, a better understanding of why and how an innovation is adopted can help develop realistic management and business plans. Most books on this topic use a single-discipline approach to explain the diffusion of innovations. This book adopts a multi-disciplinary and managerial process approach to understanding and promoting the adoption of innovations, based on the latest research and practice. It will be of interest to graduates and researchers in marketing, product development and innovation courses.

Innovation Diffusion Models

Innovation Diffusion Models
Author: Mariangela Guidolin
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 228
Release: 2024-01-03
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1119756200

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Innovation Diffusion Models Understand innovation diffusion models and their role in business success Innovation diffusion models are statistical models that predict the medium- and long-term sales performance of new products on a market. They account for numerous factors that contribute to the life cycle of a new product and are subject to continuous reassessment as markets transform and the business world becomes more complex. In a modern market environment where product life cycles are becoming ever shorter, the latest innovation diffusion models are essential for businesses looking to perfect their decision-making processes. Innovation Diffusion Models: Theory and Practice provides a comprehensive and up-to-date guide to these models and their potential to impact product development. It focuses on the latest product diffusion models, which combine time series analysis with nonlinear regression techniques to create increasingly refined predictions. Its combination of mathematical theory and business practice makes it an indispensable tool across many sectors of industry and commerce. Innovation Diffusion Models readers will also find: Real-world examples demonstrating the kinds of data sets generated by new product growth models and their potential applications Discussion of the factors underlying the decision to select a given growth model for a particular product Clear, detailed explanation of each model’s explanatory ability Innovation Diffusion Models is an essential volume for practitioners in any field of industry or commerce, as well as for graduate students and researchers in business and finance.

Diffusion of Innovations

Diffusion of Innovations
Author: Everett M. Rogers
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

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Getting an innovation adopted is difficult; a common problem is increasing the rate of its diffusion. Diffusion is the communication of an innovation through certain channels over time among members of a social system. It is a communication whose messages are concerned with new ideas; it is a process where participants create and share information to achieve a mutual understanding. Initial chapters of the book discuss the history of diffusion research, some major criticisms of diffusion research, and the meta-research procedures used in the book. This text is the third edition of this well-respected work. The first edition was published in 1962, and the fifth edition in 2003. The book's theoretical framework relies on the concepts of information and uncertainty. Uncertainty is the degree to which alternatives are perceived with respect to an event and the relative probabilities of these alternatives; uncertainty implies a lack of predictability and motivates an individual to seek information. A technological innovation embodies information, thus reducing uncertainty. Information affects uncertainty in a situation where a choice exists among alternatives; information about a technological innovation can be software information or innovation-evaluation information. An innovation is an idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or an other unit of adoption; innovation presents an individual or organization with a new alternative(s) or new means of solving problems. Whether new alternatives are superior is not precisely known by problem solvers. Thus people seek new information. Information about new ideas is exchanged through a process of convergence involving interpersonal networks. Thus, diffusion of innovations is a social process that communicates perceived information about a new idea; it produces an alteration in the structure and function of a social system, producing social consequences. Diffusion has four elements: (1) an innovation that is perceived as new, (2) communication channels, (3) time, and (4) a social system (members jointly solving to accomplish a common goal). Diffusion systems can be centralized or decentralized. The innovation-development process has five steps passing from recognition of a need, through R&D, commercialization, diffusions and adoption, to consequences. Time enters the diffusion process in three ways: (1) innovation-decision process, (2) innovativeness, and (3) rate of the innovation's adoption. The innovation-decision process is an information-seeking and information-processing activity that motivates an individual to reduce uncertainty about the (dis)advantages of the innovation. There are five steps in the process: (1) knowledge for an adoption/rejection/implementation decision; (2) persuasion to form an attitude, (3) decision, (4) implementation, and (5) confirmation (reinforcement or rejection). Innovations can also be re-invented (changed or modified) by the user. The innovation-decision period is the time required to pass through the innovation-decision process. Rates of adoption of an innovation depend on (and can be predicted by) how its characteristics are perceived in terms of relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, and observability. The diffusion effect is the increasing, cumulative pressure from interpersonal networks to adopt (or reject) an innovation. Overadoption is an innovation's adoption when experts suggest its rejection. Diffusion networks convey innovation-evaluation information to decrease uncertainty about an idea's use. The heart of the diffusion process is the modeling and imitation by potential adopters of their network partners who have adopted already. Change agents influence innovation decisions in a direction deemed desirable. Opinion leadership is the degree individuals influence others' attitudes.