Information Aggregation in Financial Markets with Career Concerns

Information Aggregation in Financial Markets with Career Concerns
Author: Amil Dasgupta
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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What are the equilibrium features of a dynamic financial market in which traders care about their reputation for ability? We modify a standard sequential trading model to include traders with career concerns. We show that this market cannot be informationally efficient: there is no equilibrium in which prices converge to the true value, even after an infinite sequence of trades. We characterize the most revealing equilibrium of this game and show that an increase in the strength of the traders' reputational concerns has a negative effect on the extent of information that can be revealed in equilibrium but a positive effect on market liquidity.

Information and Learning in Markets

Information and Learning in Markets
Author: Xavier Vives
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 422
Release: 2010-01-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 140082950X

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The ways financial analysts, traders, and other specialists use information and learn from each other are of fundamental importance to understanding how markets work and prices are set. This graduate-level textbook analyzes how markets aggregate information and examines the impacts of specific market arrangements--or microstructure--on the aggregation process and overall performance of financial markets. Xavier Vives bridges the gap between the two primary views of markets--informational efficiency and herding--and uses a coherent game-theoretic framework to bring together the latest results from the rational expectations and herding literatures. Vives emphasizes the consequences of market interaction and social learning for informational and economic efficiency. He looks closely at information aggregation mechanisms, progressing from simple to complex environments: from static to dynamic models; from competitive to strategic agents; and from simple market strategies such as noncontingent orders or quantities to complex ones like price contingent orders or demand schedules. Vives finds that contending theories like informational efficiency and herding build on the same principles of Bayesian decision making and that "irrational" agents are not needed to explain herding behavior, booms, and crashes. As this book shows, the microstructure of a market is the crucial factor in the informational efficiency of prices. Provides the most complete analysis of the ways markets aggregate information Bridges the gap between the rational expectations and herding literatures Includes exercises with solutions Serves both as a graduate textbook and a resource for researchers, including financial analysts

Information Aggregation in Financial Markets

Information Aggregation in Financial Markets
Author: Elias Albagli
Publisher:
Total Pages: 234
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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I show that heightened uncertainty leads to increased risk premium, Sharpe ratio, and stock price volatility even when attitude towards risk and the unconditional volatility of fundamentals remain constant. The third essay combines the main insights of the first two. I incorporate funding constraints that limit informed trading to a larger extent when economic conditions are poor, resulting in stock prices that are less informative about the underlying fundamentals of a firm during contractions. I consider a profit function for the firm that exhibits partial irreversibilities of investment, yielding a desired investment level that depends negatively on uncertainty about fundamentals. Together, these results imply that investment will contract sharply at the outset of crises as not only expectations about fundamentals are lower, but uncertainty about them is also larger.

How Information Structure Impacts Aggregation of Information in Markets

How Information Structure Impacts Aggregation of Information in Markets
Author: Ryan Anderson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 71
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

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We study information aggregation in financial markets. We introduce two new stability concepts: absolute stability (sensitivity of rational expectations equilibrium prices to signals (bits) that are lost or garbled), and relative stability (the difference between prices in the rational expectations and the corresponding private-information equilibria). The concepts are applied to two canonical settings of information aggregation, namely: (i) winner-take-all contracts, where a binary payment depends on the signals held by the majority of the agents; (ii) assets whose payoffs depend on the average of the signals across the agents. The former is unstable under both concepts, and hence, would lead rational agents to doubt the reliability of prices. The latter is robust, and hence, prices aggregate information more reliably. Experiments, designed to avoid any effect of risk attitudes, confirm the predictions. Through second-price auctions, we observe how participants trust prices less in the winner-take-all setting. Our findings have important implications for the design of prediction markets, for historical evidence on the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, and for recent experimental work on information aggregation.

Financial Soundness Indicators

Financial Soundness Indicators
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 302
Release: 2006-04-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589063856

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Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) are measures that indicate the current financial health and soundness of a country's financial institutions, and their corporate and household counterparts. FSIs include both aggregated individual institution data and indicators that are representative of the markets in which the financial institutions operate. FSIs are calculated and disseminated for the purpose of supporting macroprudential analysis--the assessment and surveillance of the strengths and vulnerabilities of financial systems--with a view to strengthening financial stability and limiting the likelihood of financial crises. Financial Soundness Indicators: Compilation Guide is intended to give guidance on the concepts, sources, and compilation and dissemination techniques underlying FSIs; to encourage the use and cross-country comparison of these data; and, thereby, to support national and international surveillance of financial systems.

Handbook of Experimental Economic Methodology

Handbook of Experimental Economic Methodology
Author: Guillaume R. Fréchette
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 491
Release: 2015-01-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0190202173

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The Handbook of Experimental Economic Methodology, edited by Guillaume R. Fréchette and Andrew Schotter, aims to confront and debate the issues faced by the growing field of experimental economics. For example, as experimental work attempts to test theory, it raises questions about the proper relationship between theory and experiments. As experimental results are used to inform policy, the utility of these results outside the lab is questioned, and finally, as experimental economics tries to integrate ideas from other disciplines like psychology and neuroscience, the question of their proper place in the discipline of economics becomes less clear. This book contains papers written by some of the most accomplished scholars working at the intersection of experimental, behavioral, and theoretical economics talking about methodology. It is divided into four sections, each of which features a set of papers and a set of comments on those papers. The intention of the volume is to offer a place where ideas about methodology could be discussed and even argued. Some of the papers are contentious---a healthy sign of a dynamic discipline---while others lay out a vision for how the authors think experimental economics should be pursued. This exciting and illuminating collection of papers brings light to a topic at the core of experimental economics. Researchers from a broad range of fields will benefit from the exploration of these important questions.

Dynamic Market Participation and Endogenous Information Aggregation

Dynamic Market Participation and Endogenous Information Aggregation
Author: Edison G.. Yu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2013
Genre: Financial markets
ISBN:

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This paper studies information aggregation in financial markets with recurrent investor exit and entry. I consider a dynamic general equilibrium model of asset trading with private information and collateral constraints. Investors differ in their aversion to Knightian uncertainty: When uncertainty is high, some investors exit the market. Since exiting investors' information is not fully revealed by prices, conditional return volatility and risk premia both increase. I use data on institutional investors' holdings of individual stocks to show that investor exits indeed move negatively with price in-formativeness. The model also implies that exit is more likely when wealth is more concentrated in the hands of less uncertainty-averse investors. The model thus predicts less informative prices toward the end of a long boom, as seen in the data. Moreover, economies with looser collateral constraints should see more volatility due to exit and partial revelation. Higher capital requirements can improve welfare by inducing more information revelation by prices.