Inflation Persistence in Brazil - A Cross Country Comparison

Inflation Persistence in Brazil - A Cross Country Comparison
Author: Mr.Shaun K. Roache
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2014-04-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475585233

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Inflation persistence is sometimes defined as the tendency for price shocks to push the inflation rate away from its steady state—including an inflation target—for a prolonged period. Persistence is important because it affects the output costs of lowering inflation back to the target, often described as the “sacrifice ratio”. In this paper I use inflation expectations to provide a comparison of inflation persistence in Brazil with a sample of inflation targeting (IT) countries. This approach suggests that inflation persistence increased in Brazil through early 2013, in contrast to many of its IT peers, mainly due to “upward” persistence. The 2013 rate hiking cycle may have contributed to some recent decline in persistence.

Who Would Vote for Inflation in Brazil?

Who Would Vote for Inflation in Brazil?
Author: Cheikh Tidiane Kane
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 34
Release: 1993
Genre: Brasil - Condiciones economicas
ISBN:

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Are Brazil's delays in adopting a stabilization program related to the finding that Brazil's high inflation hurts the lower and middle classes far more than the rich, who insulate themselves from its effect by taking advantage of high real interest rates on demand deposits?

Inflation Targeting, Debt, and the Brazilian Experience, 1999 to 2003

Inflation Targeting, Debt, and the Brazilian Experience, 1999 to 2003
Author: Francesco Giavazzi
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 330
Release: 2005
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262072595

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How Brazil's monetary and fiscal policies survived a series of severe economic shocks and the policy lessons for other countries. Inflation targeting -- when central bank policies set specific inflation rate objectives -- is widely used by both developed and developing countries around the world (although not by the United States or the European Central Bank). This collection of original essays looks at how Brazil's policy of inflation targeting, coupled with a floating exchange rate, survived a series of severe economic shocks and examines the policy lessons that can be drawn from Brazil's experience. After a successful start in early 1999, Brazil's policy regime had to manage mounting difficulties, including a sudden reversal of capital flows and its effects on the exchange rate and public debt, the contagion of Argentina's severe economic problems, a domestic energy crisis, and the political uncertainty of the 2002 presidential campaign. The contributors, prominent Brazilian and international economists, draw important lessons from Brazil's experience, including the necessity of accompanying monetary policy with fiscal improvement, the trade-offs involved in dollar-linked debt, the importance of fiscal institutions in an emerging market economy, and the importance of keeping inflation under control.

Inflation in Brazil

Inflation in Brazil
Author: Carlos Alfredo Rodríguez
Publisher:
Total Pages: 74
Release: 1992
Genre: Brazil
ISBN:

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Chronic Inflation in an Industrializing Economy

Chronic Inflation in an Industrializing Economy
Author: Vincent Parkin
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 344
Release: 1991-05-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780521375405

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Vincent Parkin explains the nature and causes of chronic inflation in middle-income developing countries by focusing on the Brazilian experience.

Inflation Stabilization

Inflation Stabilization
Author: World Institute for Development Economics Research
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 452
Release: 1988
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262022798

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Rampant inflation is a major economic problem in many of the less developed countries; two out of three attempts to stabilize these economies fail. Inflation Stabilization provides a valuable description and a critical analysis of the disinflation programs introduced in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Israel in 1985-86, and discusses the possibility of such a program in Mexico. It documents the initial steps in stabilization as well as the reasons for failure.As architects of the programs, several of the authors are in key positions to assess which aspects were critical in getting the programs accepted and where to look for difficulties and failures. In Israel, inflation was halted without recession. The challenge to policy makers today is in shifting from stabilization to the revival of sustained growth. This experience is described fully by Michael Bruno and Sylvia Piterman, who examine the critical issue of exchange rates, and by Alex Cukierman, who uses modeling to analyze the interaction of money, wages, prices, and activity under rational expectations that take the government's policy objectives into account.Endemic inflation and a sudden increase in external debt burden Argentina's economy, raising the wider issues of high inflation economies and stabilization that are discussed in the chapter by José Luis Machinea and that by Guido Di Tella and Alfredo Canavese.Eduardo Modiano and Mario Simonsen take up issues of wages in Brazil, particularly the problem of finding an equitable way to deal with a wage freeze; Simonsen develops an ambitious game theoretic rationalization of incomes policy as a coordinating device for imperfectly competitive economies. Bolivia did reach hyperinflation (price increases of more than 50 percent each month) before stabilizing. Juan Antonio Morales shows how stabilizing the exchange rate, in an economy where all pricing was already geared to the dollar, achieved stabilization without a wage or price freeze. And Francisco Gil Diaz asks whether an incomes-policy based program could work to control ever increasing inflation in Mexico.

The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates

The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates
Author: Mr.Alex Segura-Ubiergo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 20
Release: 2012-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 146393839X

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This paper highlights that real interest rates in Brazil have declined substantially over time, but are still well above the average of emerging market inflation targeting regimes. The adoption of an inflation-targeting regime and better economic fundamentals (reduction in inflation volatility and improvements in the fiscal and external positions) has helped Brazil sustain significantly lower real interest rates than in the past. Going forward, the paper shows that Brazil can converge towards lower equilibrium real interest rates if domestic savings increase to the level of other emerging market countries. The effect is particularly pronounced if the increase in domestic savings is achieved through higher levels of public savings. Still, econometric results suggest that, controlling for everything else in the model, real interest rates in Brazil are about two full percentage points higher than in other countries in the sample, suggesting that there are still Brazil-specific factors that have not been captured by the empirical analysis. Some of these factors may include credit market segmentation and inflation inertia generated by still pervasive indexation practices.