Identification for Prediction and Decision

Identification for Prediction and Decision
Author: Charles F. Manski
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Total Pages: 370
Release: 2009-06-30
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 9780674033665

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This book is a full-scale exposition of Charles Manski's new methodology for analyzing empirical questions in the social sciences. He recommends that researchers first ask what can be learned from data alone, and then ask what can be learned when data are combined with credible weak assumptions. Inferences predicated on weak assumptions, he argues, can achieve wide consensus, while ones that require strong assumptions almost inevitably are subject to sharp disagreements. Building on the foundation laid in the author's Identification Problems in the Social Sciences (Harvard, 1995), the book's fifteen chapters are organized in three parts. Part I studies prediction with missing or otherwise incomplete data. Part II concerns the analysis of treatment response, which aims to predict outcomes when alternative treatment rules are applied to a population. Part III studies prediction of choice behavior. Each chapter juxtaposes developments of methodology with empirical or numerical illustrations. The book employs a simple notation and mathematical apparatus, using only basic elements of probability theory.

Identification Problems in the Social Sciences

Identification Problems in the Social Sciences
Author: Charles F. Manski
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Total Pages: 194
Release: 1995
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780674442849

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The author draws on examples from a range of disciplines to provide social and behavioural scientists with a toolkit for finding bounds when predicting behaviours based upon nonexperimental and experimental data.

Public Policy in an Uncertain World

Public Policy in an Uncertain World
Author: Charles F. Manski
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Total Pages: 218
Release: 2013-02-14
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0674067541

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Manski argues that public policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. Failing to account for uncertainty in an uncertain world, policy analysis routinely misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Manski critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve both how policy research is conducted and how it is used by policy makers.

A Course in Econometrics

A Course in Econometrics
Author: Arthur Stanley Goldberger
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Total Pages: 430
Release: 1991
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780674175440

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This text prepares first-year graduate students and advanced undergraduates for empirical research in economics, and also equips them for specialization in econometric theory, business, and sociology. A Course in Econometrics is likely to be the text most thoroughly attuned to the needs of your students. Derived from the course taught by Arthur S. Goldberger at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and at Stanford University, it is specifically designed for use over two semesters, offers students the most thorough grounding in introductory statistical inference, and offers a substantial amount of interpretive material. The text brims with insights, strikes a balance between rigor and intuition, and provokes students to form their own critical opinions. A Course in Econometrics thoroughly covers the fundamentals--classical regression and simultaneous equations--and offers clear and logical explorations of asymptotic theory and nonlinear regression. To accommodate students with various levels of preparation, the text opens with a thorough review of statistical concepts and methods, then proceeds to the regression model and its variants. Bold subheadings introduce and highlight key concepts throughout each chapter. Each chapter concludes with a set of exercises specifically designed to reinforce and extend the material covered. Many of the exercises include real microdata analyses, and all are ideally suited to use as homework and test questions.

Patient Care Under Uncertainty

Patient Care Under Uncertainty
Author: Charles F. Manski
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 184
Release: 2019-09-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691194734

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For the past few years, the author, a renowned economist, has been applying the statistical tools of economics to decision making under uncertainty in the context of patient health status and response to treatment. He shows how statistical imprecision and identification problems affect empirical research in the patient-care sphere.

Group-Based Modeling of Development

Group-Based Modeling of Development
Author: Daniel S. Nagin
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Total Pages: 214
Release: 2009-07-01
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0674041313

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This book provides a systematic exposition of a group-based statistical method for analyzing longitudinal data in the social and behavioral sciences and in medicine. The methods can be applied to a wide range of data, such as that describing the progression of delinquency and criminality over the life course, changes in income over time, the course of a disease or physiological condition, or the evolution of the socioeconomic status of communities. Using real-world research data from longitudinal studies, the book explains and applies this method for identifying distinctive time-based progressions called developmental trajectories. Rather than assuming the existence of developmental trajectories of a specific form before statistical data analysis begins, the method allows the trajectories to emerge from the data itself. Thus, in an analysis of data on Montreal school children, it teases apart four distinct trajectories of physical aggression over the ages 6 to 15, examines predictors of these trajectories, and identifies events that may alter the trajectories. Aimed at consumers of statistical methodology, including social scientists, criminologists, psychologists, and medical researchers, the book presents the statistical theory underlying the method with a mixture of intuition and technical development.

Surfing Uncertainty

Surfing Uncertainty
Author: Andy Clark
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 425
Release: 2016
Genre: Medical
ISBN: 0190217014

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This title brings together work on embodiment, action, and the predictive mind. At the core is the vision of human minds as prediction machines - devices that constantly try to stay one step ahead of the breaking waves of sensory stimulation, by actively predicting the incoming flow. In every situation we encounter, that complex prediction machinery is already buzzing, proactively trying to anticipate the sensory barrage. The book shows in detail how this strange but potent strategy of self-anticipation ushers perception, understanding, and imagination simultaneously onto the cognitive stage.

Wiser

Wiser
Author: Cass R. Sunstein
Publisher: Harvard Business Press
Total Pages: 274
Release: 2015
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1422122999

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"We've all been involved in group decisions--and they're hard. And they often turn out badly. Why? Many blame bad decisions on 'groupthink' without a clear idea of what that term really means. Now, Nudge coauthor Cass Sunstein and leading decision-making scholar Reid Hastie shed light on the specifics of why and how group decisions go wrong--and offer tactics and lessons to help leaders avoid the pitfalls and reach better outcomes"--Dust jacket flap.

Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation

Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation
Author: Kenneth Train
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 399
Release: 2009-07-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0521766559

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This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.