How to Deal with Macroeconomic Imbalances?

How to Deal with Macroeconomic Imbalances?
Author: Daniel Gros
Publisher:
Total Pages: 13
Release: 2012
Genre: Capital movements
ISBN: 9789461382467

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Lax financial conditions can foster credit booms. The global credit boom of the last decade led to large capital flows across the world, including large movements of resources from the northern countries of the euro area towards the southern part. Since the start of the crisis and more markedly after 2009, these flows have suddenly stopped, creating severe adjustment pressure. At this point the common monetary policy can only try to mitigate the unavoidable adjustment by maintaining overall financial stability. The challenge is to strike a delicate balance between providing liquidity for solvent institutions while keeping the overall pressure on for a rapid correction of the imbalances.

Macroeconomic Imbalances and Comparative Advantages in the Euro Area

Macroeconomic Imbalances and Comparative Advantages in the Euro Area
Author: Stefan Collignon
Publisher: ETUI
Total Pages: 141
Release: 2012
Genre: Euro
ISBN: 2874522740

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The emergence of macroeconomic imbalances among EU member states is often seen as a major underlying factor of the recent European debt crisis. In order to identify and tackle these imbalances, the European authorities established, in 2011, a new surveillance tool incorporating rules to prevent future imbalances and labelled the Excessive Imbalance Procedure (EIP). Stefan Collignon argues that the premises of the Excessive Imbalance Procedure are in fact wrong, and its implementation therefore misguided, in that they take for granted the policy framework of the nation state whereas the Euro Area economy is, in reality, integrated into a single market with a single currency, such that so-called ‘foreign’ debt is, effectively, debt to other residents in the Euro Area. The author demonstrates, furthermore, that strict adherence to the EIP could, in conjunction with other new economic governance instruments, entail devastating consequences for peripheral countries in the European Union. Following his observation that current indicators used by the Commission fail to provide a correct or accurate assessment of imbalances in the Euro Area, the author devises a new ‘Competitive Index’, calculated as the difference between actual and equilibrium unit labour costs, which he recommends as an alternative and better indicator in the context of the Alert Mechanism Reports to be issued by the European Commission in the future.

External Imbalances and Financial Crises

External Imbalances and Financial Crises
Author: Alan Taylor
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 18
Release: 2013-12-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484322851

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Consider two views of the global financial crisis. One view looks across the border: it blames external imbalances, the unprecedented current account deficits and surpluses in recent years. Another view looks within the border: it faults domestic financial systems where risks originated in excessive credit booms. We can use the lens of macroeconomic and financial history to confront these dueling hypotheses with evidence. The credit boom explanation is the most plausible predictor of crises since the late nineteenth century; global imbalances have only a weak correlation with financial distress compared to indicators drawn from the financial system itself.

A Flow-of-Funds Perspective on the Financial Crisis Volume II

A Flow-of-Funds Perspective on the Financial Crisis Volume II
Author: B. Winkler
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 352
Release: 2013-11-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1137353015

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Based on the crisis experience, the book offers an overview of lessons for macrofinancial analysis and financial stability. It illustrates the interlinkages between the financial side and the real side of the economy and highlights the role of balance sheet variables and sectoral balance sheet positions in the evolution of the financial crisis.

Macroeconomic Imbalances

Macroeconomic Imbalances
Author: European Commission. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
Publisher:
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2012
Genre: Balance of payments
ISBN:

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On 14 February 2012, the European Commission presented its first Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) in accordance with the Regulation (EU) No. 1176/2011 on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances. The AMR serves as an initial screening device to identify Member States that warrant further in depth analysis into whether imbalances exist or risk emerging. According to Article 5 of Regulation No. 1176/2011, these country-specific ?in-depth reviews? should examine the nature, origin and severity of macroeconomic developments in the Member State concerned, which constitute, or could lead to, imbalances. On the basis of this analysis, the Commission concludes whether it considers that an imbalance exists or not, and if so whether it is excessive or not, and what type of follow-up it will recommend to the Council to address to the Member State. This in-depth review concludes that Denmark is experiencing macroeconomic imbalances, which are not excessive but need to be addressed. In particular, certain macroeconomic developments, notably underlying the external competitiveness and the potential risks related to household indebtedness, deserve attention so as to reduce the risk of adverse effects on the functioning of the economy.

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis
Author: Laurent Ferrara
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 300
Release: 2018-06-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319790757

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This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Macroeconomic Imbalances

Macroeconomic Imbalances
Author: European Commission. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2012
Genre: Balance of payments
ISBN:

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Recoge: Revisión de la economía italiana con la intención de identificar presentes o potenciales desequilibrios y los posibles riesgos macroeconómicos que pueden implicar.

External Imbalances and Financial Crises

External Imbalances and Financial Crises
Author: Alan M. Taylor
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2012
Genre: Business cycles
ISBN:

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In broad perspective, there have been essentially two competing views of the global financial crisis, albeit there are some complementarities among them. One view looks across the border: it mainly blames external imbalances, the large-scale mix of unprecedented pattern current account deficits and surpluses which entailed massive and growing net and gross international financial flows in the last decade. The alternative view looks within the border: it finds more fault in the domestic arena of the afflicted countries, attributing the problems to financial systems where risks originated in excessive credit booms in local banks. This paper uses the lens of macroeconomic and financial history to confront these dueling hypotheses with evidence. Of the two, the credit boom explanation stands out as the most plausible predictor of financial crises since the dawn of modern finance capitalism in the late nineteenth century. Historically, we find that global imbalances are not as important as a factor in financial crises as is often perceived, and they have much less correlation with subsequent episodes of financial distress compared to direct indicators like credit drawn from the financial system itself -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site.