How the Federal Funds Rate Affects 10 Year Treasury Bond Yields

How the Federal Funds Rate Affects 10 Year Treasury Bond Yields
Author: Kane Snyder
Publisher:
Total Pages: 12
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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Macroeconomic theory tells us that long-term interest rates tend to move in the same direction with short-term interest rates. So, we would expect the yield on a long-term asset like the10-year Treasury bond to move up when a short-term rate like the federal funds rate moves up. However, a cursory reading of financial news sources since the FOMC began its rate hike policy, through January 2005, show that the yield on the 10-year has actually fallen.This study will develop a predictive model to describe this direct influence and conclude that the federal funds rate directly influences the 10-year Treasury bond yield. This study will not try to predict what factors could be holding the yields down in any quantifiable way. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is a benchmark rate, important to bond investors looking for future indicators of inflation, and to areas such as housing and other loans; a predictive model will allow investors to more adequately gauge investment risk and loan officers to judge what interest rates to charge.

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates
Author: Mr.Tao Wu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2014-10-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 149837395X

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This paper examines the transmission mechanism through which unconventional monetary policy affects long-term interest rates. I construct a real-time measure summarizing market projections of the magnitude and duration of the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP) program, and analyze the determination of term premiums and expectations of future short-term interest rates in a sample spanning more than two decades. Empirical findings suggest that the LSAP has effectively lowered the long-term Treasury bond yields, through both "signaling" and "portfolio balance" channels. On the other hand, the Fed's "forward guidance" also leads to gradual extension of market projections for the duration of the LSAP program, thereby enhancing the LSAP's effect to keep term premiums low. Estimation results also reveal a diminished effectiveness of the LSAP during QE III. Finally, model simulations underscore the importance of policy transparency in minimizing unnecessary market turbulence and ensuring a timely and smooth exit of the unconventional monetary policy stimulus.

The Unusual Behavior of the Federal Funds and 10-year Treasury Rates

The Unusual Behavior of the Federal Funds and 10-year Treasury Rates
Author: Daniel L. Thornton
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2007
Genre:
ISBN:

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"In February 2005, former Chairman Alan Greenspan referred to the decline in long-term rates in the wake of the Fed increasing the target for the federal funds rate by 150 basis points as a "conundrum." Greenspan's remarks generated considerable interest and research. I show that the relationship between the 10 year Treasury yield and the federal funds rate changed dramatically in the late 1980s, well in advance of Greenspan's observation. I argue that the marked change in the relationship between the federal funds rate and long-term yields is a natural consequence of Goodhart's Law"--Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis web site.

U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates

U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization and Global Interest Rates
Author: Carlos Caceres
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2016-09-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475543069

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As the Federal Reserve continues to normalize its monetary policy, this paper studies the impact of U.S. interest rates on rates in other countries. We find a modest but nontrivial pass-through from U.S. to domestic short-term interest rates on average. We show that, to a large extent, this comovement reflects synchronized business cycles. However, there is important heterogeneity across countries, and we find evidence of limited monetary autonomy in some cases. The co-movement of longer term interest rates is larger and more pervasive. We distinguish between U.S. interest rate movements that surprise markets versus those that are anticipated, and find that most countries receive greater spillovers from the former. We also distinguish between movements in the U.S. term premium and the expected path of risk-free rates, concluding that countries respond differently to these shocks. Finally, we explore the determinants of monetary autonomy and find strong evidence for the role of exchange rate flexibility, capital account openness, but also for other factors, such as dollarization of financial system liabilities, and the credibility of fiscal and monetary policy.

Birth of a Market

Birth of a Market
Author: Kenneth D. Garbade
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 407
Release: 2012-01-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0262297795

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The evolution of “a marvel of modern finance,” the market for U.S. Treasury securities, from 1917 to 1939. The market for U.S. Treasury securities is a marvel of modern finance. In 2009 the Treasury auctioned $8.2 trillion of new securities, ranging from 4-day bills to 30-year bonds, in 283 offerings on 171 different days. By contrast, in the decade before World War I, there was only about $1 billion of interest-bearing Treasury debt outstanding, spread out over just six issues. New offerings were rare, and the debt was narrowly held, most of it owned by national banks. In Birth of a Market, Kenneth Garbade traces the development of the Treasury market from a financial backwater in the years before World War I to a multibillion dollar market on the eve of World War II. Garbade focuses on Treasury debt management policies, describing the origins of several pillars of modern Treasury practice, including “regular and predictable” auction offerings and the integration of debt and cash management. He recounts the actions of Secretaries of the Treasury, from William McAdoo in the Wilson administration to Henry Morgenthau in the Roosevelt administration, and their responses to economic conditions. Garbade's account covers the Treasury market in the two decades before World War I, how the Treasury financed the Great War, how it managed the postwar refinancing and paydowns, and how it financed the chronic deficits of the Great Depression. He concludes with an examination of aspects of modern Treasury debt management that grew out of developments from 1917 to 1939.

Assessing Monetary Policy Effects Using Daily Fed Funds Futures Contracts

Assessing Monetary Policy Effects Using Daily Fed Funds Futures Contracts
Author: James D. Hamilton
Publisher:
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2007
Genre: Federal funds market (U.S.)
ISBN:

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This paper develops a generalization of the formulas proposed by Kuttner (2001) and others for purposes of measuring the effects of a change in the fed funds target on Treasury yields of different maturities. The generalization avoids the need to condition on the date of the target change and allows for deviations of the effective fed funds rate from the target as well as gradual learning by market participants about the target. The paper shows that parameters estimated solely on the basis of the behavior of the fed funds and fed funds futures can account for the broad calendar regularities in the relation between fed funds futures and Treasury yields of different maturities. Although the methods are new, the conclusion is quite similar to that reported by earlier researchers-- changes in the fed funds target seem to be associated with quite large changes in Treasury yields, even for maturities up to ten years.

The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions

The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions
Author: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2002
Genre: Banks and Banking
ISBN: 9780894991967

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Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.

The Effect of the Federal Reserve's Securities Holdings on Longer-term Interest Rates

The Effect of the Federal Reserve's Securities Holdings on Longer-term Interest Rates
Author: Brian Bonis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 9
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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In an effort to promote more accommodative financial conditions following the financial crisis of 2008 and the ensuing recession, and at a time when the conventional monetary policy tool--the federal funds rate--was at its effective lower bound, the Federal Reserve conducted large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) and a maturity extension program (MEP). By increasing the amount of longer-term Treasury securities and agency MBS on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and thereby reducing the amount of longer-term Treasury securities and agency MBS that the public would have held otherwise, these purchase programs put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates. This note outlines a way to estimate by how much Federal Reserve securities holdings resulting from these purchase programs reduce longer-term interest rates. In particular, we estimate the term premium effect (TPE) on the 10-year Treasury yield. Currently, our model suggests that the cumulative effect of the Federal Reserve's LSAPs and MEP results in a reduction in the 10-year Treasury yield term premium of about 100 basis points. By the end of 2017, the term premium will be held down by about 85 basis points. The slight narrowing of the TPE reflects the average maturity of the Federal Reserve's portfolio declining and the cessation of reinvestments drawing nearer.