High Frequency Statistical Arbitrage with Kalman Filter and Markov Chain Monte Carlo

High Frequency Statistical Arbitrage with Kalman Filter and Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Author: Han Xu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2017
Genre: Commodity futures
ISBN:

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Statistical arbitrage, or sometimes called pairs trading, is an investment strategy which exploits the historical price relationships between two or several assets and profits from relative mispricing. It has a long history in hedge fund industry and variates of this kind of strategies are still profitable nowadays. The idea is simple and the source of the profit has support from fundamentals in economics and pricing theories. However, there are still many difficulties in implementing and testing such strategies in real life, which include how to select pairs, how to estimate hedge ratio, when to enter, when to exit and etc. Due to its proprietary nature, there is very few literature on this subject. This thesis is an attempt to demystify statistical arbitrage in high-frequency settings, using freely available data of Chinese commodity futures. This thesis introduces and discusses the existing research done on this subject. Also, with the help of advanced statistical inference approaches for treating time series, this thesis proposed a new model which generalizes the entire process of creating a profitable statistical arbitrage trading strategy for a given market. Several different approaches are implemented and their simulated performances in the Chinese commodity future market are compared horizontally. Unlike much other existing literature, transaction costs and market frictions have been considered thoroughly in order to make the research result more meaningful. Empirical results show that our new model delivers very competitive performance in online hedge ratio estimation.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Author: W. S. Kendall
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 239
Release: 2005
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9812700919

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Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) originated in statistical physics, but has spilled over into various application areas, leading to a corresponding variety of techniques and methods. That variety stimulates new ideas and developments from many different places, and there is much to be gained from cross-fertilization. This book presents five expository essays by leaders in the field, drawing from perspectives in physics, statistics and genetics, and showing how different aspects of MCMC come to the fore in different contexts. The essays derive from tutorial lectures at an interdisciplinary program at the Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Singapore, which exploited the exciting ways in which MCMC spreads across different disciplines.

Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice

Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice
Author: Arnaud Doucet
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 590
Release: 2013-03-09
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1475734379

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Monte Carlo methods are revolutionizing the on-line analysis of data in many fileds. They have made it possible to solve numerically many complex, non-standard problems that were previously intractable. This book presents the first comprehensive treatment of these techniques.

Statistical Arbitrage

Statistical Arbitrage
Author: Andrew Pole
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 230
Release: 2011-07-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118160738

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While statistical arbitrage has faced some tough times?as markets experienced dramatic changes in dynamics beginning in 2000?new developments in algorithmic trading have allowed it to rise from the ashes of that fire. Based on the results of author Andrew Pole?s own research and experience running a statistical arbitrage hedge fund for eight years?in partnership with a group whose own history stretches back to the dawn of what was first called pairs trading?this unique guide provides detailed insights into the nuances of a proven investment strategy. Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Statistical Arbitrage contains comprehensive analysis that will appeal to both investors looking for an overview of this discipline, as well as quants looking for critical insights into modeling, risk management, and implementation of the strategy.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulations and Their Statistical Analysis

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulations and Their Statistical Analysis
Author: Bernd A Berg
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
Total Pages: 380
Release: 2004-10-01
Genre: Science
ISBN: 9813106379

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This book teaches modern Markov chain Monte Carlo (MC) simulation techniques step by step. The material should be accessible to advanced undergraduate students and is suitable for a course. It ranges from elementary statistics concepts (the theory behind MC simulations), through conventional Metropolis and heat bath algorithms, autocorrelations and the analysis of the performance of MC algorithms, to advanced topics including the multicanonical approach, cluster algorithms and parallel computing. Therefore, it is also of interest to researchers in the field. The book relates the theory directly to Web-based computer code. This allows readers to get quickly started with their own simulations and to verify many numerical examples easily. The present code is in Fortran 77, for which compilers are freely available. The principles taught are important for users of other programming languages, like C or C++.

Quantitative Trading

Quantitative Trading
Author: Xin Guo
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 414
Release: 2017-01-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1315354357

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The first part of this book discusses institutions and mechanisms of algorithmic trading, market microstructure, high-frequency data and stylized facts, time and event aggregation, order book dynamics, trading strategies and algorithms, transaction costs, market impact and execution strategies, risk analysis, and management. The second part covers market impact models, network models, multi-asset trading, machine learning techniques, and nonlinear filtering. The third part discusses electronic market making, liquidity, systemic risk, recent developments and debates on the subject.

Monte Carlo Statistical Methods

Monte Carlo Statistical Methods
Author: Christian Robert
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 670
Release: 2013-03-14
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1475741456

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We have sold 4300 copies worldwide of the first edition (1999). This new edition contains five completely new chapters covering new developments.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulations and Their Statistical Analysis

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulations and Their Statistical Analysis
Author: Bernd A. Berg
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 380
Release: 2004
Genre: Science
ISBN: 9812389350

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This book teaches modern Markov chain Monte Carlo (MC) simulation techniques step by step. The material should be accessible to advanced undergraduate students and is suitable for a course. It ranges from elementary statistics concepts (the theory behind MC simulations), through conventional Metropolis and heat bath algorithms, autocorrelations and the analysis of the performance of MC algorithms, to advanced topics including the multicanonical approach, cluster algorithms and parallel computing. Therefore, it is also of interest to researchers in the field. The book relates the theory directly to Web-based computer code. This allows readers to get quickly started with their own simulations and to verify many numerical examples easily. The present code is in Fortran 77, for which compilers are freely available. The principles taught are important for users of other programming languages, like C or C++.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice

Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice
Author: W.R. Gilks
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 505
Release: 1995-12-01
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1482214970

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In a family study of breast cancer, epidemiologists in Southern California increase the power for detecting a gene-environment interaction. In Gambia, a study helps a vaccination program reduce the incidence of Hepatitis B carriage. Archaeologists in Austria place a Bronze Age site in its true temporal location on the calendar scale. And in France,

Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities Between Commodity Futures and Commodity Currency Futures

Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities Between Commodity Futures and Commodity Currency Futures
Author: Jan-Philipp Weber
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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This thesis introduces two algorithmic statistical arbitrage trading strategies based on the fixed hedge ratio of the Engle-Granger cointegration regression and the daily forward-looking hedge ratio of the Kalman filter. Both trading strategies have the objective to exploit short-term deviations from the stochastic long-term equilibrium between country-specific commodity currency futures and commodity futures of Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa based on daily futures prices in the time period from 2005 until 2013. The empirical results suggest that the cointegration relationship between commodity currency futures and commodity futures is highly unstable and switches between a non-cointegrated and a cointegrated regime over time. The error correction models show that commodity futures are weakly exogenous and that commodity currency futures mainly react to short-term deviations from the long-term equilibrium. In addition, the Kalman filter reveals that the pair-specific hedge ratios are highly sensitive over time. The thesis demonstrates that both trading strategies are suitable to exploit statistical arbitrage opportunities based on different combinations between the trading threshold and convergence target. However, the profitability of both trading strategies declined out-of-sample owed to the regime switches in the cointegration relationship and the smaller size of the price anomalies. Further research should focus on the time-varying properties of the hedge ratios and the causes for the regime switches in the cointegration relationship including the implementation of non-linear, respectively regime switching models. Also the pair-specific holdings of the portfolios could be optimised and the performance of the trading strategies tested on high frequency data.