Growth At Risk Concept And Application In Imf Country Surveillance
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| Author | : Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 39 |
| Release | : 2019-02-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484397010 |
Download Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.
| Author | : |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 35 |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Download Growth at Risk Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.
| Author | : Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 39 |
| Release | : 2019-02-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498301347 |
Download Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 122 |
| Release | : 2019-10-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513511726 |
Download International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2019 Financial Statements Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The audited consolidated financial statements of the International Monetary Fund as of April 30, 2019 and 2018
| Author | : International Monetary |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 31 |
| Release | : 2021-05-18 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513578618 |
Download 2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on The Surveillance Priority Confronting Risks and Uncertainties Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The coverage of risks has become more systematic since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC): staff reports now regularly identify major risks and provide an assessment of their likelihood and economic impact, summarized in Risk Assessment Matrices (RAM). But still limited attention is paid to the range of possible outcomes. Also, risk identification is useful only so much as to inform policy design to preemptively respond to relevant risks and/or better prepare for them. In this regard, policy recommendations in surveillance could be richer in considering various risk management approaches. To this end, progress is needed on two dimensions: • Increasing emphasis on the range of potential outcomes to improve policy design. • Encouraging more proactive policy advice on how to manage risks. Efforts should continue to leverage internal and external resources to support risk analysis and advice in surveillance.
| Author | : Mr.Takuji Komatsuzaki |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 42 |
| Release | : 2019-11-15 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513521802 |
Download Financial Conditions and Growth at Risk in the ECCU Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
We study the growth determinants in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), using the Growth at Risk (GaR) framework with a focus on financial variables. We find that excessive bank credit growth is associated with lower future real GDP growth in the medium term especially on the low quantiles of growth distribution. Moreover, worsening of both global financial conditions and external conditions are associated with lower future growth in the short term, especially at the high quantiles of growth distribution. Country-specific results are broadly in line with ECCU-wide results, with some variation potentially due to the strong Citizenship-By-Investment program inflows and lack of credit union data. The establishment of a macroprudential framework in the ECCU would need to pay close attention to credit growth not only of banks but also credit unions and continue to monitor global and external conditions.
| Author | : Olga Bespalova |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 19 |
| Release | : 2019-11-13 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1513520083 |
Download Macrofinancial Linkages and Growth at Risk in the Dominican Republic Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) methodology to examine how macrofinancial conditions affect the growth outlook and its probability distribution. Using this approach, we evaluate risks to GDP growth in the Dominican Republic using quarterly data for 1996-2018. We group macrofinancial conditions in five principal determinants, based on 32 indicators. The Dominican Republic’s growth distribution appears most vulnerable to negative shocks to domestic financial conditions, domestic leverage, domestic demand, and external demand, with additional repercussions from the external cost of borrowing in the longer run. Our findings show that domestic monetary policy plays a particularly important role in reducing growth vulnerabilities when the economy is weak.
| Author | : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 85 |
| Release | : 2019-06-24 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498321119 |
Download Canada Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper discusses that Canada has enjoyed favorable macroeconomic outcomes over the past decades, and its vibrant financial system continues to grow robustly. However, macrofinancial vulnerabilities—notably, elevated household debt and housing market imbalances—remain substantial, posing financial stability concerns. Various parts of the financial system are directly exposed to the housing market and/or linked through housing finance. The financial system would be able to manage severe macrofinancial shocks. Major deposit-taking institutions would remain resilient, but mortgage insurers would need additional capital in a severe adverse scenario. Housing finance is broadly resilient, notwithstanding some weaknesses in the small non-prime mortgage lending segment. Although banks’ overall capital buffers are adequate, additional required capital for mortgage exposures, along with measures to increase risk-based differentiation in mortgage pricing, would be desirable. This would help ensure adequate through-the cycle buffers, improve mortgage risk-pricing, and limit procyclical effects induced by housing market corrections.
| Author | : John H. Morris |
| Publisher | : Edward Elgar Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 198 |
| Release | : 2023-07-01 |
| Genre | : Political Science |
| ISBN | : 1800887590 |
Download (Mis)managing Macroprudential Expectations Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Using a range of calculative devices, (Mis)managing Macroprudential Expectations explores the methods used by central banks to predict and govern the tail risks that could impact financial stability. Through an in-depth case study, the book utilises empirically-informed theoretical analysis to capture these low-probability and high-impact events, and offers a novel conceptualisation of the role of risk modelling within the macroprudential policy agenda.
| Author | : International Monetary |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 104 |
| Release | : 2022-07-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Download Dominican Republic Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
As in the past, the Dominican Republic’s dynamic economy continued to show remarkable resilience to shocks, rebounding strongly from the impact of the pandemic. Sound policies, a nimble vaccination campaign and a well-attuned reopening—including international travel—allowed the economy to make the most of the global rebound. The recovery has been broad based; GDP was about 5 percent above pre-pandemic levels as of end-2021. The country maintained sound market access and benefitted from Fund support through the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI).
