Gdp Growth Potential Output And Output Gaps In Mexico
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Author | : Mr.Ebrima Faal |
Publisher | : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2005-05-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781451861129 |
Download GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents medium-term paths for GDP based on alternative assumptions for productivity growth rates. The results indicate that the most important factor underlying the slowdown in output growth was a decline in trend total factor productivity growth. Economic policy reforms and the introduction of NAFTA may have raised trend productivity growth in recent years. Further increases in productivity growth would appear necessary, however, to raise medium-term growth.
Author | : Francesco Grigoli |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 35 |
Release | : 2015-01-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498375855 |
Download Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.
Author | : Ebrima Faal |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2005 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download GDP Growth, Potential Output and Output Gaps in Mexiko Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 46 |
Release | : 2010-03-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 145198183X |
Download Mexico Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the global crisis and potential growth in Mexico. The paper uses two methodologies to assess to what extent the global crisis is likely to weigh on Mexico’s growth potential. The first approach is sectoral, examining the historical relationship between financial stress and growth in manufacturing industries. The second approach uses a growth-accounting framework to take a closer look at likely developments in the factors that drive potential growth. The paper also examines spending patterns and risks of expenditures volatility from unanticipated shocks in macroeconomic variables under two alternative fiscal rules.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 49 |
Release | : 2013-11-26 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475540159 |
Download Mexico Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This Selected Issues paper analyzes reforms to Mexico’s fiscal framework. Mexico’s resilient economic performance would be consolidated by increasing fiscal policy buffers and preparing for challenges associated with long-term budget pressures. In the short term, reducing public debt levels can create space to implement countercyclical fiscal policies and reduce exposure to high financing and hedging costs, which would protect Mexico’s credit rating at times of distress. The paper highlights that recent fiscal reform is designed with these policy objectives in mind, to build on the strengths of the previous fiscal framework.
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 138 |
Release | : 2004 |
Genre | : Mexico |
ISBN | : |
Download Mexico, Selected Issues Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Author | : Ebrima Faal |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 36 |
Release | : 2005 |
Genre | : Capital productivity |
ISBN | : |
Download GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents medium-term paths for GDP based on alternative assumptions for productivity growth rates. The results indicate that the most important factor underlying the slowdown in output growth was a decline in trend total factor productivity growth. Economic policy reforms and the introduction of NAFTA may have raised trend productivity growth in recent years. Further increases in productivity growth would appear necessary, however, to raise medium-term growth.
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 84 |
Release | : 2015-11-17 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 151354408X |
Download Mexico Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This Selected Issues paper analyzes fiscal multipliers in Mexico. Estimates of fiscal multipliers––obtained from state-level spending––fall within 0.6–0.7 after accounting for dynamic effects. However, the size of multipliers varies with the output gap. The planned fiscal consolidation—under the estimated multipliers—is projected to subtract on average 0.5 percentage points from growth over 2015–20. However, there are offsetting effects. The positive growth impulse of lower costs on manufactured goods production is estimated to reach 0.5 percentage point in 2015 and 2016, largely offsetting the impact of fiscal consolidation on growth in the near term.
Author | : Mr.Jiaqian Chen |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 28 |
Release | : 2020-02-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 151352786X |
Download Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Author | : Mustapha K. Nabli |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 666 |
Release | : 2010-12-03 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0821385143 |
Download The Great Recession and Developing Countries Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
The book provides one of the most detailed and comprehensive reviews of the growth experience of a group of low and middle income countries before and during the global crisis. It then explores their growth prospects after the recovery and how they may be shaped by the new global economic environment.