From the Primaries to the Polls

From the Primaries to the Polls
Author: Thomas Gangale
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
Total Pages: 278
Release: 2007-12-30
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0313348367

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America's presidential nominating process is inherently unfair and exclusive, yielding undue weight and privilege to the states that vote in the earliest rounds. More and more states are beating down the door to vote earlier, trying to redress the inequity on a state-by-state basis. In the ensuing free-for-all, the presidential primary schedule has become so front-loaded that the anointed front-runner with the biggest war chest in each of the major parties is the de facto nominee. The primaries are becoming mere noise and pageantry, as the national conventions have been for several decades. From the Primaries to the Polls describes the problem and proposes the solution. The American Plan is designed to begin with contests in small-population states, where candidates do not need millions of dollars to compete and a wide field of presidential hopefuls can be competitive in the early going. A minor candidate's surprise success in early rounds, based on merit rather than money, tends to attract money from larger numbers of small contributors for the campaign to spend in later rounds of primaries. Keeping more candidates in the race longer to challenge to the front-runners prevents a rush to judgment and permits more voters across the country to select from a diverse field. As the campaign proceeds over ten two-week intervals of primaries and caucuses on a semi-randomized schedule, the aggregate value of contested states becomes successively larger, requiring the expenditure of larger amounts of money in order to campaign effectively. A more gradual weeding-out process occurs, allowing a clear winner to emerge only after the full spectrum of candidates has been in play nationally.

Delivering the People’s Message

Delivering the People’s Message
Author: Julia R. Azari
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Total Pages: 221
Release: 2014-03-18
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0801470269

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Presidents have long invoked electoral mandates to justify the use of executive power. In Delivering the People’s Message, Julia R. Azari draws on an original dataset of more than 1,500 presidential communications, as well as primary documents from six presidential libraries, to systematically examine choices made by presidents ranging from Herbert Hoover in 1928 to Barack Obama during his 2008 election. Azari argues that Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980 marked a shift from the modern presidency formed by Franklin Delano Roosevelt to what she identifies as a more partisan era for the presidency. This partisan model is a form of governance in which the president appears to require a popular mandate in order to manage unruly and deeply contrary elements within his own party and succeed in the face of staunch resistance from the opposition party. Azari finds that when the presidency enjoys high public esteem and party polarization is low, mandate rhetoric is less frequent and employs broad themes. By contrast, presidents turn to mandate rhetoric when the office loses legitimacy, as in the wake of Watergate and Vietnam and during periods of intense polarization. In the twenty-first century, these two factors have converged. As a result, presidents rely on mandate rhetoric to defend their choices to supporters and critics alike, simultaneously creating unrealistic expectations about the electoral promises they will be able to fulfill.

Primaries and Elections 1927

Primaries and Elections 1927
Author: Massachusetts Secretary of Commonwealth
Publisher: Forgotten Books
Total Pages: 516
Release: 2016-09-12
Genre: Reference
ISBN: 9781333564711

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Excerpt from Primaries and Elections 1927: Number of Assessed Polls, Registered Voters, and Persons Who Voted in Each Voting Precinct at the City and Town Elections I have the honor to submit herewith, in compliance with section 133, chapter 54, General Laws, as amended by section 7, chapter 209, Acts of 1921, a report of the number of assessed polls and the number of registered voters in each city and town at the date of the last city and town elections, and the total number of persons who voted at each such election in every city and town, and in every voting pre cinct therein. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.

The Timeline of Presidential Elections

The Timeline of Presidential Elections
Author: Robert S. Erikson
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 221
Release: 2012-08-24
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0226922162

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In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.

Votes of Confidence, 2nd Edition

Votes of Confidence, 2nd Edition
Author: Jeff Fleischer
Publisher: Millbrook Press
Total Pages: 185
Release: 2020-03-03
Genre: Young Adult Nonfiction
ISBN: 1541596056

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Every two years, media coverage of American elections turns into a horse-race story about who's leading the polls and who said what when. Give young adult readers clear explanations about how our election process actually works, why it matters, and how they can become involved. Using real-world examples and anecdotes, this book provides readers with thorough, nonpartisan explanations about primaries, the electoral college, checks and balances, polls, fundraising, and more. Updated with facts, figures, and analysis, this edition provides the next generation of voters with essential guidance about the past, present, and future of American elections. "[A] very readable, engaging, and entertaining history of American elections and politics for young people. Highly recommended."—starred, Booklist "Fleischer presents a potentially didactic subject matter in a digestible and organized manner. Recommended for middle to high school students, educators, and others interested in becoming civically informed and engaged."—School Library Journal

Primary Politics

Primary Politics
Author: Elaine Kamarck
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 253
Release: 2018-11-13
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0815735286

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The 2020 presidential primaries are on the horizon and this third edition of Elaine Kamarck's Primary Politics will be there to help make sense of them. Updated to include the 2016 election, it will once again be the guide to understanding the modern nominating system that gave the American electorate a choice between Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton. In Primary Politics, political insider Elaine Kamarck explains how the presidential nomination process became the often baffling system we have today, including the “robot rule.” Her focus is the largely untold story of how presidential candidates since the early 1970s have sought to alter the rules in their favor and how their failures and successes have led to even more change. She describes how candidates have sought to manipulate the sequencing of primaries to their advantage and how Iowa and New Hampshire came to dominate the system. She analyzes the rules that are used to translate votes into delegates, paying special attention to the Democrats' twenty-year fight over proportional representation and some of its arcana. Drawing on meticulous research, interviews with key figures in both parties, and years of experience, this book explores one of the most important questions in American politics—how we narrow the list of presidential candidates every four years.

Presidential Primaries

Presidential Primaries
Author: James W. Davis
Publisher: Praeger
Total Pages: 424
Release: 1980-03-25
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:

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In the revised edition, Davis demonstrates how the growth of primaries, coupled with the increased impact of opinion polls and television coverage, has transformed the American election system. Presenting the history of the American nominating system of both binding and advisory primaries, he describes the proliferation of primaries and the growth of their influence and relationship with the opinion polls, the issues involved in campaign financing and the effect of the primary system on the fortunes of many different candidates.

The Voter's Guide to Election Polls

The Voter's Guide to Election Polls
Author: Michael W. Traugott
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023-11-15
Genre:
ISBN: 9781538187388

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Through a Q&A format designed to grab readers' attention, this thoroughly revised Sixth Edition gives voters everything they need to know about election polls. Traugott and Lavrakas cover the latest polling technologies and data collection methods, how polls are used in campaigns and by the media, and most importantly--why it all matters.

The Party Decides

The Party Decides
Author: Marty Cohen
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 418
Release: 2009-05-15
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0226112381

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Throughout the contest for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, politicians and voters alike worried that the outcome might depend on the preferences of unelected superdelegates. This concern threw into relief the prevailing notion that—such unusually competitive cases notwithstanding—people, rather than parties, should and do control presidential nominations. But for the past several decades, The Party Decides shows, unelected insiders in both major parties have effectively selected candidates long before citizens reached the ballot box. Tracing the evolution of presidential nominations since the 1790s, this volume demonstrates how party insiders have sought since America’s founding to control nominations as a means of getting what they want from government. Contrary to the common view that the party reforms of the 1970s gave voters more power, the authors contend that the most consequential contests remain the candidates’ fights for prominent endorsements and the support of various interest groups and state party leaders. These invisible primaries produce frontrunners long before most voters start paying attention, profoundly influencing final election outcomes and investing parties with far more nominating power than is generally recognized.