From Stimulus to Consolidation

From Stimulus to Consolidation
Author: Mr.Benedict J. Clements
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 122
Release: 2010-10-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1616350423

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This paper identifies policy tools that could be used for fiscal consolidation in advanced and emerging economies in the years ahead. The consolidation strategy, particularly in advanced countries, should aim to stabilize age-related spending in relation to GDP, reduce non-age-related expenditure ratios, and increase revenues. Bold reforms are needed to offset projected increases in age-related spending, particularly health care. On the revenue side, measures could include improving tax compliance, for example through better international cooperation, as well as increasing the yield from VAT by eliminating exemptions and reduced rates, further developing property taxes, and increasing excise rates within the range of rates already applicable in comparable countries.

From Stimulus to Consolidation - Revenue and Expenditure Policies in Advanced and Emerging Economies

From Stimulus to Consolidation - Revenue and Expenditure Policies in Advanced and Emerging Economies
Author: International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 93
Release: 2010-06-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 149833735X

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This review marks the 10th anniversary of the safeguards policy. Introduced in March 2000, the policy’s main objective is to mitigate potential risks of misuse of resources, including Fund resources, and misreporting of monetary program data. The policy was last reviewed in 2005, when the Executive Board re-affirmed the effectiveness of the policy, and its application to central banks. In keeping with previous reviews, a panel of experts was invited to provide advice for the Executive Board on the implementation of the policy, and recommendations to guide the focus and application of the policy going forward.

The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback

The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback
Author: Mr.Marcello M. Estevão
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2013-05-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484304489

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The past several years of recession and slow recovery have raised much interest on the effect of fiscal stimulus on economic activity, even as high public debts in many countries would call for fiscal consolidation. To evaluate the delicate balance between stimulus and consolidation requires measuring the size of fiscal multipliers, which often depends on having quarterly data so that exogenous fiscal policy shocks can be identified. We estimate fiscal multipliers using a novel methodology for identifying fiscal shocks within a structural vector autoregressive approach using annual data while controling for debt feedback effects. The estimation focuses on regions with scarce quarterly data (mostly low-income countries), and uses results for advanced economies, emerging market countries, and other broad groupings for which alternative estimates are available to validate the methodology. Differently from advanced and emerging market economies, fiscal consolidation in low-income countries has only a small temporary negative effect on growth while raising medium-term output. Shifting the composition of public spending toward capital expenditure further supports long-run growth.

Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in the Post-Crisis World

Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in the Post-Crisis World
Author: Mr.Mauricio Villafuerte
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 64
Release: 2010-09-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589069374

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In response to the global financial crisis, governments provided substantial support to the financial and other key sectors. Although this cushioned the adverse effects of the crisis, it is necessary now to articulate a strategy to ensure the sustainability of public finances. This paper discusses the scale and composition of fiscal adjustment that will need to occur once the recovery is securely under way. Although specific country-level circumstances will influence the composition of the adjustment and its political feasibility, in many cases restoring fiscal sustainability will require reforms to reduce spending and increase tax revenue.

Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth

Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 257
Release: 2015-04-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498344658

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This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.

Can Fiscal Consolidation Help Central Banks Fight Inflation?

Can Fiscal Consolidation Help Central Banks Fight Inflation?
Author: Mr. Jiaqian Chen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2023-12-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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This paper argues case that a tighter fiscal policy stance can meaningfully support central banks in fighting inflation in both advanced and emerging market economies. While the standard textbook result suggest that monetary policy is much more effective than fiscal policy in battling inflation in open economies due to the exchange rate channel, we show that a tighter fiscal stance is notably more effective in the current situation. This is so because when many countries currently need to tighten the policy stance simultaneously, the exchange rate channel does not provide monetary policy with an edge over fiscal policy. We also show that fiscal consolidation can be helpful in small open emerging markets and developing economies by reaffirming their commitment to price stability, and by putting the fiscal house in order which reduces risk premiums and strengthens the currency. Furthermore, we show that spillovers from major economies can be more adverse from tighter monetary policy. By applying a two-agent New Keynesian modeling framework with unconstrained and hand-to-mouth households, we show that any adverse effects of tighter fiscal policy (relative to tighter monetary policy) on consumption inequality can be handled with a combination of general spending cuts and targeted transfers to vulnerable households.

A Status Update on Fiscal Exit Strategies

A Status Update on Fiscal Exit Strategies
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2010-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145521079X

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With a modest recovery in the global economy underway, and amid rising concerns about the sharp increase in government debt in several countries, debate has increasingly focused on the need to identify and implement fiscal exit strategies. This paper reviews the medium-term plans of 25 countries - the G20 plus six others with large adjustment needs - and finds that most of them have made reasonable progress in defining these strategies. Nevertheless, strategies fall short in some areas, including committing to long-term debt targets, spelling out adjustment measures in detail, and tackling rising health care costs.

Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth

Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth
Author: Mr.James Daniel
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 80
Release: 2006-08-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781589065130

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The pamphlet (which updates the 1995 Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment) presents the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment, and focuses on the role that sound government finances play in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Structured around five practical questions—when to adjust, how to assess the fiscal position, what makes for successful adjustment, how to carry out adjustment, and which institutions can help—it covers topics such as tax policies, debt sustainability, fiscal responsibility laws, and transparency.

Fiscal Implications of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis

Fiscal Implications of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 97
Release: 2009-09-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1589068505

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The economic and financial crisis is affecting the fiscal accounts of virtually every country. Public sector support for the financial system, fiscal stimulus and the automatic stabilizers, as well as the revenue decline from the downturn in commodity and asset prices, are leading to sharp increases in deficits and debt stocks around the world. Expansionary fiscal policy continues to be necessary in the short term to stimulate economic recovery. But it is now essential that governments reassess the state of their public finances in light of the global crisis and adopt strategies that will ensure medium- and long-term fiscal sustainability. Many of the advanced economies most affected by the crisis are also those where age-related spending will increase markedly in the coming years, adding particular urgency to the need to identify medium-term consolidation strategies. This new paper, which focuses mainly on advanced and emerging market economies, employs projections based on the April 2009 World Economic Outlook to quantify the fiscal implications of the crisis for a cross-section of countries. The authors assess the post-shock fiscal balances and debt outlook, and suggest ways for governments to clarify their strategies for maintaining fiscal solvency.

Public Financial Management and Its Emerging Architecture

Public Financial Management and Its Emerging Architecture
Author: Mr. M. Cangiano
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 468
Release: 2013-04-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475512198

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The first two decades of the twenty-first century have witnessed an influx of innovations and reforms in public financial management. The current wave of reforms is markedly different from those in the past, owing to the sheer number of innovations, their widespread adoption, and the sense that they add up to a fundamental change in the way governments manage public money. This book takes stock of the most important innovations that have emerged over the past two decades, including fiscal responsibility legislation, fiscal rules, medium-term budget frameworks, fiscal councils, fiscal risk management techniques, performance budgeting, and accrual reporting and accounting. Not merely a handbook or manual describing practices in the field, the volume instead poses critical questions about innovations; the issues and challenges that have appeared along the way, including those associated with the global economic crisis; and how the ground can be prepared for the next generation of public financial management reforms. Watch Video of Book Launch