Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields Using Credit Spreads and Structural Breaks

Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields Using Credit Spreads and Structural Breaks
Author: Azamat Abdymomunov
Publisher:
Total Pages: 34
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this paper, we investigate whether credit spread curve information helps forecast the government bond yield curve and whether the joint dynamics of the government bond yields and credit spreads have structural changes. For this purpose, we use a joint dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) model of the term structures of U.S. Treasury interest rates and credit spreads. We find that this joint model produces substantially more accurate out-of-sample Treasury yields forecasts compared with a standard DNS yield curve only model. We also find that the predictive gain from incorporating the credit spread curve information substantially increases if the joint model accounts for structural changes in the dynamics of yield and credit spread curves. In addition, our model incorporates a zero lower bound restriction ensuring that our predictions are economically plausible.

Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields in Unstable Environments

Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields in Unstable Environments
Author: Joseph Byrne
Publisher:
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this paper we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data-rich and unstable environment. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel factor model is extended to allow the model dimension and the parameters to change over time, in order to account for both model uncertainty and sudden structural changes, in one setting. The proposed specification performs better than several alternatives, since it incorporates additional macro-finance information during hard times, while it allows for more parsimonious models to be relevant during normal periods. A dynamic variance decomposition measure constructed from our model shows that parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty regarding different choices of predictors explain a large proportion of the predictive variance of bond yields.

Dynamic Modeling Approach to Forecast the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields

Dynamic Modeling Approach to Forecast the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields
Author: Min Fu
Publisher:
Total Pages: 58
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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Since arbitrage-free is a desirable theoretical feature in a healthy financial market, many efforts have been made to construct arbitrage-free models for yield curves. However, little attention is paid to review if such restriction will improve yield forecast. We evaluate the importance of arbitrage-free restriction on dynamic Nelson-Siegel term structure when forecasting yield curves. We find that it doesn't help. We also compare these two Nelson-Siegel dynamic models with a benchmark dynamic model and show that Nelson-Siegel structure improve forecasts for long-maturity yields.

The Stability of the Yield Spread in the U.S. Bond Market

The Stability of the Yield Spread in the U.S. Bond Market
Author: Simon Lund
Publisher:
Total Pages: 84
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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This study examines the relation between yield spreads on financial bonds and the underlying Treasury term structure. Using the Nelson and Siegel model to fit the yield curves and duration as the measurement for maturity, allows for a study that has limited coupon bias. Results indicate that changes in the level of the Treasury term structure are negatively correlated with changes in the yield spreads on AAA and AA rated bonds. The relationship is stable across ratings and no structural breaks were present in the period from January 2005 through March 2007. There were however signs of the relationship changing towards the end of the period which could be related to the beginning of the so- called credit-crisis in the U.S. bond market.

Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting

Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 223
Release: 2013-01-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691146802

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Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.

Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing

Empirical Dynamic Asset Pricing
Author: Kenneth J. Singleton
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 497
Release: 2009-12-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400829232

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Written by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities. Singleton addresses the restrictions on the joint distributions of asset returns and other economic variables implied by dynamic asset pricing models, as well as the interplay between model formulation and the choice of econometric estimation strategy. For each pricing problem, he provides a comprehensive overview of the empirical evidence on goodness-of-fit, with tables and graphs that facilitate critical assessment of the current state of the relevant literatures. As an added feature, Singleton includes throughout the book interesting tidbits of new research. These range from empirical results (not reported elsewhere, or updated from Singleton's previous papers) to new observations about model specification and new econometric methods for testing models. Clear and comprehensive, the book will appeal to researchers at financial institutions as well as advanced students of economics and finance, mathematics, and science.