Forecasting: principles and practice

Forecasting: principles and practice
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
Total Pages: 380
Release: 2018-05-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0987507117

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Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Elements of Forecasting

Elements of Forecasting
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: Cengage Learning
Total Pages: 426
Release: 1998
Genre: Forecasting
ISBN:

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Elements of Forecasting is a concise, modern survey of business and economics forecasting methods. Written by one of the world's leading experts on forecasting, it focuses on the core techniques of widest applicability and assumes only an elementary background in statistics. It is applications-oriented and illustrates all methods with detailed examples and case studies.

Forecasting

Forecasting
Author: David Hendry
Publisher: Yale University Press
Total Pages: 232
Release: 2019-06-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0300248245

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Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.

Practical Time Series Forecasting with R

Practical Time Series Forecasting with R
Author: Galit Shmueli
Publisher: Axelrod Schnall Publishers
Total Pages: 250
Release: 2024-02-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Practical Time Series Forecasting with R: A Hands-On Guide, Third Edition provides an applied approach to time-series forecasting. Forecasting is an essential component of predictive analytics. The book introduces popular forecasting methods and approaches used in a variety of business applications. The book offers clear explanations, practical examples, and end-of-chapter exercises and cases. Readers will learn to use forecasting methods using the free open-source R software to develop effective forecasting solutions that extract business value from time series data. This edition features the R fable package, full color, enhanced organization, and new material. It includes: • Popular forecasting methods including smoothing algorithms, regression models, ARIMA, neural networks, deep learning, and ensembles • A practical approach to evaluating the performance of forecasting solutions • A business-analytics exposition focused on linking time-series forecasting to business goals • Guided cases for integrating the acquired knowledge using real data • End-of-chapter problems to facilitate active learning • Data, R code, and instructor materials on companion website • Affordable and globally-available textbook, available in hardcover, paperback, and Kindle formats Practical Time Series Forecasting with R: A Hands-On Guide, Third Edition is the perfect textbook for upper-undergraduate, graduate and MBA-level courses as well as professional programs in data science and business analytics. The book is also designed for practitioners in the fields of operations research, supply chain management, marketing, economics, information systems, finance, and management.

Future Ready

Future Ready
Author: Steve Morlidge
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 328
Release: 2010-02-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470662212

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The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market." —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group

Forecasting for Technologists and Engineers

Forecasting for Technologists and Engineers
Author: Brian C. Twiss
Publisher: IET
Total Pages: 246
Release: 1992
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 9780863412851

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This book is written for all technologists and engineers. To those unfamiliar with forecasting it may appear a somewhat esoteric activity with little relevance to the everyday technical concerns of the reader. This is not so. The aim of this book is to show how forecasting can improve the quality of technical decision making. Furthermore, this can be accomplished without the use of highly sophisticated techniques which can only be applied by specialists. The approaches described in this book can be easily understood and used by all its readers.

Time Series Forecasting

Time Series Forecasting
Author: Douglas C. Montgomery
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 740
Release: 2024-07-30
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 139418669X

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Bring the latest statistical tools to bear on predicting future variables and outcomes A huge range of fields rely on forecasts of how certain variables and causal factors will affect future outcomes, from product sales to inflation rates to demographic changes. Time series analysis is the branch of applied statistics which generates forecasts, and its sophisticated use of time oriented data can vastly impact the quality of crucial predictions. The latest computing and statistical methodologies are constantly being sought to refine these predictions and increase the confidence with which important actors can rely on future outcomes. Time Series Analysis and Forecasting presents a comprehensive overview of the methodologies required to produce these forecasts with the aid of time-oriented data sets. The potential applications for these techniques are nearly limitless, and this foundational volume has now been updated to reflect the most advanced tools. The result, more than ever, is an essential introduction to a core area of statistical analysis. Readers of the third edition of Time Series Analysis and Forecasting will also find: Updates incorporating JMP, SAS, and R software, with new examples throughout Over 300 exercises and 50 programming algorithms that balance theory and practice Supplementary materials in the e-book including solutions to many problems, data sets, and brand-new explanatory videos covering the key concepts and examples from each chapter. Time Series Analysis and Forecasting is ideal for graduate and advanced undergraduate courses in the areas of data science and analytics and forecasting and time series analysis. It is also an outstanding reference for practicing data scientists.

Economic Forecasts

Economic Forecasts
Author: Ralf Brüggemann
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
Total Pages: 176
Release: 2016-11-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3110510847

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Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance. Economic policy makers base their decisions on business cycle forecasts, investment decisions of firms are based on demand forecasts, and portfolio managers try to outperform the market based on financial market forecasts. Forecasts extract relevant information from the past and help to reduce the inherent uncertainty of the future. The topic of this special issue of the Journal of Economics and Statistics is the theory and practise of forecasting and forecast evaluation and an overview of the state of the art of forecasting.

The Making of National Economic Forecasts

The Making of National Economic Forecasts
Author: Lawrence Robert Klein
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 400
Release: 2009-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1849802165

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In this valuable volume, Nobel Prize-winner Klein gathers together a group of authors who focus on forecasting models for a number of economies. The variety of the models and the structural differences among them are especially interesting. . . Readers interested in forecasting methodologies will find much of value in this volume. Highly recommended. I. Walter, Choice This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material. The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.