Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields

Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields
Author: Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 30
Release: 2010-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455202185

Download Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The recent sharp increase in fiscal deficits and government debt in many countries raises questions regarding their impact on long-term sovereign bond yields. While economic theory suggests that this impact is likely to be adverse, empirical results have been less clear cut, have generally ignored nonlinear effects of deficits and debt through some other key determinants of yields, and have been mostly confined to advanced economies. This paper reexamines the impact of fiscal deficits and public debt on long-term interest rates during 1980 - 2008, taking into account a wide range of country-specific factors, for a panel of 31 advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that higher deficits and public debt lead to a significant increase in long-term interest rates, with the precise magnitude dependent on initial fiscal, institutional and other structural conditions, as well as spillovers from global financial markets. Taking into account these factors suggests that large fiscal deficits and public debts are likely to put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced economies over the medium term.

The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt

The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt
Author: Kiichi Tokuoka
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2010-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451962266

Download The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Despite the rapid rise in public debt and large fiscal deficits, Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have remained fairly stable. Possible factors include: Japan's sizeable pool of household savings, presence of large and stable institutional investors, and strong home bias. These factors are likely to persist for some time, but going forward, the market's capacity to absorb debt is likely to diminish, as population aging reduces savings inflows and financial reforms enhance risk appetite. This could in turn strengthen the link between JGB yields and the stock of public debt. In light of these structural changes in the market, fiscal consolidation will be key for maintaining market stability.

Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies

Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies
Author: Mr.Tigran Poghosyan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2012-11-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475529147

Download Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980-2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find that in the long-run, government bond yields increase by about 2 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in government debt-to-GDP ratio and by about 45 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in potential growth rate. In the short-run, sovereign bond yields deviate from the level determined by the long-run fundamentals, but about half of the deviation adjusts in one year. When considering the impact of the global financial crisis on sovereign borrowing costs in euro area countries, the estimations suggest that spreads against Germany in some European periphery countries exceeded the level determined by fundamentals in the aftermath of the crisis, while some North European countries have benefited from “safe haven” flows.

Bond Yields in Emerging Economies

Bond Yields in Emerging Economies
Author: Laura Jaramillo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 25
Release: 2012-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475505485

Download Bond Yields in Emerging Economies Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

While many studies have looked into the determinants of yields on externally issued sovereign bonds of emerging economies, analysis of domestically issued bonds has hitherto been limited, despite their growing relevance. This paper finds that the extent to which fiscal variables affect domestic bond yields in emerging economies depends on the level of global risk aversion. During tranquil times in global markets, fiscal variables do not seem to be a significant determinant of domestic bond yields in emerging economies. However, when market participants are on edge, they pay greater attention to country-specific fiscal fundamentals, revealing greater alertness about default risk.

Public Debt, North and South

Public Debt, North and South
Author: Helmut Reisen
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 40
Release: 1989
Genre: Debts, Public
ISBN:

Download Public Debt, North and South Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Why has government debt risen since 1984 despite rationed foreign lending and efforts at fiscal consolidation? And how can the rising debt be stopped? Possible remedies are growth -oriented fiscal adjustment, improved debt management, and voluntary debt reduction.

The Political Economy of Public Debt

The Political Economy of Public Debt
Author: Richard M. Salsman
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 337
Release: 2017-02-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1785363387

Download The Political Economy of Public Debt Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

How have the most influential political economists of the past three centuries theorized about sovereign borrowing and shaped its now widespread use? That important question receives a comprehensive answer in this original work, featuring careful textual analysis and illuminating exhibits of public debt empirics since 1700. Beyond its value as a definitive, authoritative history of thought on public debt, this book rehabilitates and reintroduces a realist perspective into a contemporary debate now heavily dominated by pessimists and optimists alike.

Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service

Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service
Author: Silvia Ardagna
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2004
Genre: Debt service
ISBN:

Download Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

We use a panel of 16 OECD countries over several decades to investigate the effects of government debts and deficits on long-term interest rates. In simple static specifications, a one-percentage-point increase in the primary deficit relative to GDP increases contemporaneous long-term interest rates by about 10 basis points. In a vector autoregression (VAR), the same shock leads to a cumulative increase of almost 150 basis points after 10 years. The effect of debt on interest rates is non-linear: only for countries with above-average levels of debt does an increase in debt affect the interest rate. World fiscal policy is also important: an increase in total OECD-government borrowing increases each country's interest rates. However, domestic fiscal policy continues to affect domestic interest rates even after controlling for worldwide debts and deficits.

Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads
Author: Iva Petrova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2010-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455252859

Download Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.

Measurement of Fiscal Impact

Measurement of Fiscal Impact
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 84
Release: 1988-06-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781557750167

Download Measurement of Fiscal Impact Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper describes methodological issues pertaining to measurement of fiscal impact. The fiscal deficit is, under any circumstances, a crude tool for assessing the impact of fiscal policy on the economy. This paper also analyzes various ways in which the conventional definition of the fiscal deficit is affected by high rates of inflation. It has shown that, as the rate of inflation rises, the picture emerging from the conventional measure may, under certain circumstances, become somewhat blurred since the conventional measure may magnify the size of the fiscal adjustment that a country need. In fact, the size of the debt service that compensates bondholders for the reduction in the real value of their assets arising from inflation should be made explicit so as to indicate that part of the deficit whose impact depends mainly on portfolio decisions regarding the public's demand for government bonds, and on the potential effects of these bonds on the monetary and liquidity conditions of the economy.

International Bond Markets (Routledge Revivals)

International Bond Markets (Routledge Revivals)
Author: David H. Gowland
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 185
Release: 2013-10-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135009406

Download International Bond Markets (Routledge Revivals) Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

First published in 1990, International Bond Markets analyses how the markets in public-sector debt have developed and how they operate in a number of countries, including those with chronic budget deficits. Alongside a detailed introduction to government borrowing, chapters consider the bond markets and debt management systems of the U.S.A., Japan, France, Italy and the U.K. With governments around the world struggling to manage their huge deficits, this is a particularly relevant title to students observing the current global economic situation, and those with a general interest in public debt management and bond markets.