Experimenting with Dynamic Macromodels

Experimenting with Dynamic Macromodels
Author: PierCarlo Nicola
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 265
Release: 2008-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3540773975

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This book presents a macroeconomic dynamic model à la Solow-Swan, including the market for labor, in a discrete time structure. The model is expanded to include expenditure on R&D and public expenditure on infrastructure. For each of the three models the results are shown in time series figures, which demonstrate that even small changes in the parameters produce responses in the time behavior of the main variables: from steady growth, to regular cycles, to chaotic-like time paths.

Gravitational Lensing: An Astrophysical Tool

Gravitational Lensing: An Astrophysical Tool
Author: Frederic Courbin
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 191
Release: 2002-12-10
Genre: Science
ISBN: 9783540443551

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Gravitational lensing is by now sufficiently well understood that it can be used as a tool of investigation in other astrophysical areas. Applications include the determination of the Hubble constant, probing the dark matter context of galaxies and the mapping of the universe to the identification of otherwise invisible large-scale structures. Each chapter of the book covers in a self-contained manner a subfield of gravitational lensing, with the double aim of describing in a simple way the basics of the theory and of reviewing the most recent developments as well as applications foreseen in the near future. The book will thus be particularly useful as a high-level textbook for nonspecialist researchers and advanced students wishing to become familiar with the field all the way up to the forefront of research.

Financial Risk Management with Bayesian Estimation of GARCH Models

Financial Risk Management with Bayesian Estimation of GARCH Models
Author: David Ardia
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 206
Release: 2008-05-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3540786570

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This book presents in detail methodologies for the Bayesian estimation of sing- regime and regime-switching GARCH models. These models are widespread and essential tools in n ancial econometrics and have, until recently, mainly been estimated using the classical Maximum Likelihood technique. As this study aims to demonstrate, the Bayesian approach o ers an attractive alternative which enables small sample results, robust estimation, model discrimination and probabilistic statements on nonlinear functions of the model parameters. The author is indebted to numerous individuals for help in the preparation of this study. Primarily, I owe a great debt to Prof. Dr. Philippe J. Deschamps who inspired me to study Bayesian econometrics, suggested the subject, guided me under his supervision and encouraged my research. I would also like to thank Prof. Dr. Martin Wallmeier and my colleagues of the Department of Quantitative Economics, in particular Michael Beer, Roberto Cerratti and Gilles Kaltenrieder, for their useful comments and discussions. I am very indebted to my friends Carlos Ord as Criado, Julien A. Straubhaar, J er ^ ome Ph. A. Taillard and Mathieu Vuilleumier, for their support in the elds of economics, mathematics and statistics. Thanks also to my friend Kevin Barnes who helped with my English in this work. Finally, I am greatly indebted to my parents and grandparents for their support and encouragement while I was struggling with the writing of this thesis.

Fuzzy Portfolio Optimization

Fuzzy Portfolio Optimization
Author: Yong Fang
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 170
Release: 2008-09-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3540779264

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Most of the existing portfolio selection models are based on the probability theory. Though they often deal with the uncertainty via probabilistic - proaches, we have to mention that the probabilistic approaches only partly capture the reality. Some other techniques have also been applied to handle the uncertainty of the ?nancial markets, for instance, the fuzzy set theory [Zadeh (1965)]. In reality, many events with fuzziness are characterized by probabilistic approaches, although they are not random events. The fuzzy set theory has been widely used to solve many practical problems, including ?nancial risk management. By using fuzzy mathematical approaches, quan- tative analysis, qualitative analysis, the experts’ knowledge and the investors’ subjective opinions can be better integrated into a portfolio selection model. The contents of this book mainly comprise of the authors’ research results for fuzzy portfolio selection problems in recent years. In addition, in the book, the authors will also introduce some other important progress in the ?eld of fuzzy portfolio optimization. Some fundamental issues and problems of po- folioselectionhavebeenstudiedsystematicallyandextensivelybytheauthors to apply fuzzy systems theory and optimization methods. A new framework for investment analysis is presented in this book. A series of portfolio sel- tion models are given and some of them might be more e?cient for practical applications. Some application examples are given to illustrate these models by using real data from the Chinese securities markets.

Pension Systems, Demographic Change, and the Stock Market

Pension Systems, Demographic Change, and the Stock Market
Author: Marten Hillebrand
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 178
Release: 2008-10-16
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 3540779728

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Due to the accelerating demographic change of the population the reform of the existing pension systems constitutes one of the greatest political challenges in most European countries. A theoretical discussion of different pension reforms must incorporate not only the demographic aspect but also the role of financial market risk and the impact on production and employment. These notes develop a dynamic macroeconomic model which incorporates these aspects within a flexible theoretical framework. The proposed approach provides a large scale population model and features a sound description of the production side as well as of the financial side of the economy and their interactions with the pension system. Within this framework various adjustment policies of the pension system are studied under different population scenarios. The consequences for the economy and the welfare of consumers are analyzed and compared.

Macromodels of the National Economy of the USSR

Macromodels of the National Economy of the USSR
Author: V.V. Kolbin
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 486
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 9400952058

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Rapid methodological progress is now taking place in the USSR in the solution of the problems of developing both society and economy. A considerable proportion of the total methodological problems of the USSR economy are dealt with in the present monograph. This work is intended for economists, managers and specialists in methodology, sociology and applied mathematics, and it may also be useful to researchers into operations as well as to politicians, philosophers and wide circles of readers interested in the present and future problems of the USSR economy. Readers will find here, I hope, answers to many questions. At the same time this work can be used as a manual for students and post-graduate students investigating countries with centrally planned economies. For his monograph the author has used the material originally developed for a special course of lectures called "Macromodels of Planning". Some sections of the book correspond to the subjects of courses on "Mathematical Programming" and "Operations Research" as well as to the subjects of special courses on "Methods of Vector Optimization", "Stochastic Programming", "Parametric Programming" and "Decomposition Methods of Programming", read by the author from 1971 to 1976 to the graduates and post graduates of the department of applied mathematics and management processes at Leningrad University.

The Electronic Oracle

The Electronic Oracle
Author: D. H. Meadows
Publisher:
Total Pages: 472
Release: 1985-05-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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An in-depth analysis of the strengths and limitations of computer models in helping solve social, economic and political problems, using nine recent models as examples. Addressing the growing disillusionment with models among researchers and policymakers, the authors discuss what has been done and what still needs to be done to make modeling a more viable and realistic analytical tool.

Preparing for an Aging World

Preparing for an Aging World
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 326
Release: 2001-06-26
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0309170877

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Aging is a process that encompasses virtually all aspects of life. Because the speed of population aging is accelerating, and because the data needed to study the aging process are complex and expensive to obtain, it is imperative that countries coordinate their research efforts to reap the most benefits from this important information. Preparing for an Aging World looks at the behavioral and socioeconomic aspects of aging, and focuses on work, retirement, and pensions; wealth and savings behavior; health and disability; intergenerational transfers; and concepts of well-being. It makes recommendations for a collection of new, cross-national data on aging populationsâ€"data that will allow nations to develop policies and programs for addressing the major shifts in population age structure now occurring. These efforts, if made internationally, would advance our understanding of the aging process around the world.

Documentation Abstracts

Documentation Abstracts
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 618
Release: 1994
Genre: Documentation
ISBN:

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American Power after the Financial Crisis

American Power after the Financial Crisis
Author: Jonathan Kirshner
Publisher: Cornell University Press
Total Pages: 225
Release: 2014-09-08
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0801454786

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The global financial crisis of 2007–2008 was both an economic catastrophe and a watershed event in world politics. In American Power after the Financial Crisis, Jonathan Kirshner explains how the crisis altered the international balance of power, affecting the patterns and pulse of world politics. The crisis, Kirshner argues, brought about an end to what he identifies as the "second postwar American order" because it undermined the legitimacy of the economic ideas that underpinned that order—especially those that encouraged and even insisted upon uninhibited financial deregulation. The crisis also accelerated two existing trends: the relative erosion of the power and political influence of the United States and the increased political influence of other states, most notably, but not exclusively, China.Looking ahead, Kirshner anticipates a "New Heterogeneity" in thinking about how best to manage domestic and international money and finance. These divergences—such as varying assessments of and reactions to newly visible vulnerabilities in the American economy and changing attitudes about the long-term appeal of the dollar—will offer a bold challenge to the United States and its essentially unchanged disposition toward financial policy and regulation. This New Heterogeneity will contribute to greater discord among nations about how best to manage the global economy. A provocative look at how the 2007–2008 economic collapse diminished U.S. dominance in world politics, American Power after the Financial Crisis suggests that the most significant and lasting impact of the crisis and the Great Recession will be the inability of the United States to enforce its political and economic priorities on an increasingly recalcitrant world.