Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Commodity Prices

Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Commodity Prices
Author: Meher Manzur
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2002
Genre: Foreign exchange rates
ISBN: 9781840648430

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This book explores the key issues relating to links between exchange rate instability and domestic inflation, including real exchange rate and interest rate manifestations, and the co-variability of exchange rates and commodity prices. The common theme throughout is the behaviour of asset prices and interest rates in international markets. A number of interrelated questions regarding the interactions of exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices are posed: Why is purchasing power parity invariably controversial? Despite overwhelming evidence that sterilised central bank interventions are impotent, why do major industrialised countries (such as the G-7) continue to look for accords to stem exchange rate volatility? Why are the currencies of resource-based economies depreciating when the commodity prices are holding up? Has the link between exchange rates and commodity prices collapsed? In a world of increasing globalisation, why are interest rate movements so poorly correlated across countries? New insights to these and other fundamental questions in international finance are provided by way of empirical analyses. Whilst there remains much that is little understood, the conclusions concerning the validity of the theory of purchasing power parity are becoming more and more reliable. This book is a must-read for graduate students, researchers and lecturers interested in finance, economics or business. Exchange Rates, Interest Rates and Commodity Prices will also appeal to policymakers.

Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and World Monetary Policy

Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and World Monetary Policy
Author: John E. Floyd
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 406
Release: 2009-12-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642102808

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A careful basic theoretical and econometric analysis of the factors determining the real exchange rates of Canada, the U.K., Japan, France and Germany with respect to the United States is conducted. The resulting conclusion is that real exchange rates are almost entirely determined by real factors relating to growth and technology such as oil and commodity prices, international allocations of world investment across countries, and underlying terms of trade changes. Unanticipated money supply shocks, calculated in five alternative ways have virtually no effects. A Blanchard-Quah VAR analysis also indicates that the effects of real shocks predominate over monetary shocks by a wide margin. The implications of these facts for the conduct of monetary policy in countries outside the U.S. are then explored leading to the conclusion that all countries, to avoid exchange rate overshooting, have tended to automatically follow the same monetary policy as the United States. The history of world monetary policy is reviewed along with the determination of real exchange rates within the Euro Area.

Commodity Prices and Markets

Commodity Prices and Markets
Author: Takatoshi Ito
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 346
Release: 2011-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226386899

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Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices

Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices
Author: Dominique Yves Dupont
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 72
Release: 1996-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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This paper examines the relations between fluctuations in real exchange rates among the major currencies and fluctuations in real commodity prices. Increased exchange rate volatility calls for a better understanding of these relations. To the best of our knowledge, no systematic study of those effects has been performed on a wide range of commodities, although Sjaastad and Scacciavillani (1993) have done so for gold. We build on their approach and construct a supply and demand multi-country model, with world market clearing, which incorporates speculative and non-speculative demands for inventories and “static” and “rational” expectations. We estimate the model using several econometric methods on monthly data from January 1972 to January 1992 for 65 commodity prices. The paper finds that, for a small group of commodities, the dollar-denominated price is significantly influenced by the deutsche mark and the yen. The empirical results show that geographical proximity matters, and that supply and demand elasticities are important in determining the commodity price in world markets above and beyond the size of the share of those commodities in world trade.

Commodity Prices and Markets

Commodity Prices and Markets
Author: Takatoshi Ito
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 346
Release: 2011-02-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226386902

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Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects, such as inflation and low rates of economic growth. Commodity Prices and Markets advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim. The volume addresses three distinct subjects: the difficulties in forecasting commodity prices, the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on the domestic economy, and the relationship between price shocks and monetary policy. The ability to forecast commodity prices is difficult but of great importance to businesses and governments, and this volume will be invaluable to professionals and policy makers interested in the field.

Exchange Rate Choices with Inflexible Markets and Costly Price Adjustments

Exchange Rate Choices with Inflexible Markets and Costly Price Adjustments
Author: Tara Iyer
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2017-07-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148430893X

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This paper analyzes the appropriate choice of an exchange rate regime in agricultural commodity-exporting economies. In an open economy model that incorporates key structural characteristics of agricultural commodity exporters including dual labor markets, the benefits of exchange rate flexibility are shown to depend on the extent of labor and product market development. With developed markets, flexible exchange rates are preferred as they allow for greater relative price fluctuations, which amplify the transmission mechanism of labor reallocation upon commodity price volatility. When labor and product markets are not welldeveloped, however, international relative price adjustments exacerbate currency and factor misalignments. A nominal exchange rate peg, by mitigating relative wage and price fluctuations, increases welfare relative to a float. Given the current low level of labor and product market development across most agricultural commodity exporters, the study provides a counterpoint to conventional arguments in favor of flexible exchange rates and a rationale as to why exchange rate targeting is appropriate in agricultural economies.

Currencies, Commodities and Consumption

Currencies, Commodities and Consumption
Author: Kenneth W. Clements
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 401
Release: 2013-01-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1139619616

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Currency values, prices, consumption and incomes are at the heart of the economic performance of all countries. In order to make a meaningful comparison between one economy and another, economists routinely make use of purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates, but while PPP rates are widely used and well understood, they take a lot of effort to produce and suffer from publication delays. Currencies, Commodities and Consumption analyses the strengths and weaknesses of two alternatives to PPP. Firstly, the so-called Big Mac Index, which uses hamburger prices as a standard of measurement, and second, a less well known technique which infers incomes across countries based on the proportion of consumption devoted to food. Kenneth W. Clements uses international macroeconomics, microeconomic theory and econometrics to provide researchers and policy makers with insights into alternatives to PPP rates and make sense of the ongoing instability of exchange rates and commodity prices.

Toward an Explanation of National Price Levels

Toward an Explanation of National Price Levels
Author: Irving B. Kravis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 1983
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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"The purpose of this paper is to call attention to the need for a theory of comparative national price levels and to explore some of the elements that seem to belong to such a theory. Most theoretical discussions have maintained that national price levels tend towards equality and focus on presumably temporary divergences from equality. Yet strong evidence has been accumulating that there are large and long-standing differences inprice levels, the highest of which are more than twice those of countries with the lowest prices. Long-run price level differences are most clearly related to levels of real per capita output, with richer countries having higher price levels.These differences have been explained as resulting from greater advantages in productivity for the wealthier countries in goods production, mostly tradable, than in services production, mostly nontradable. The differences in relative productivity may be in total factor productivity or only in labor productivity, reflecting the greater capital intensity of goods production and possibly a higher elasticity of substitution between capital and labor in goods production.We find in the empirical analysis that a large part of the differences in price levels can be explained by structural factors such as real GDP per capita, the degree of openness of the economy, and the share of nontradable goods in output. The only non-structural factor emerging from a preliminary analysis of several of these was the rate of growth of the quantity of money"--NBER website

The Volatility of the Relative Price of Commodities In Terms of Manufactures Across Exchange Regimes

The Volatility of the Relative Price of Commodities In Terms of Manufactures Across Exchange Regimes
Author: Ms.Hong Liang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 22
Release: 1998-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451980639

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This paper investigates the relationship between the nominal exchange rate regime and the volatility of relative commodity prices. The analysis shows that the relationship depends upon both the market structure and the economic agent’s perception about future exchange rate movements. When the markets for manufactured goods are less competitive than the markets for primary commodities, the volatility of relative commodity prices rises when exchange rate uncertainty increases. If demand for manufactured goods is intertemporally dependent, even a small increase in exchange rate uncertainty can result in potentially large costs in terms of increased relative commodity price instability.