Exchange Rate Policies, Prices and Supply-side Response

Exchange Rate Policies, Prices and Supply-side Response
Author: Christos Papazoglou
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 210
Release: 2001-05-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0230554539

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This book, based upon a large-scale research project, examines alternative types of exchange rate policies being pursued and the changing nature of exchange rate policy during the transition process in four countries, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Poland and the Czech Republic. The book brings together a series of original contributions by country experts and draws out some common themes and over-arching policy implications for the operation of exchange rate policy in the transition process.

Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs

Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs
Author: Mr.Jorge Roldos
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 36
Release: 1994-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451954425

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This paper focuses on the short-run and long-run supply-side effects of disinflation programs in a two-sector economy. Fixing the exchange rate reduces the wedge between the return on foreign assets and that on domestic capital, leading to an increase in the latter. After an initial real exchange rate appreciation and increase in the production of nontradables—due to a consumption boom—the new capital is gradually installed in the tradable sector. During this transitional period, further real appreciation takes place—as the expansion of the tradable sector pulls labor away from the nontradable sector—together with investment-driven deficits in the current account. We conclude that when appreciation and deficits are due to supply-side rigidities, rather than to credibility and/or price stickiness, no further policies (i.e., capital controls, incomes policies) are advisable.

Macroeconomic Policy

Macroeconomic Policy
Author: Martin Weale
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 403
Release: 2015-10-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1317379438

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This analysis of macroeconomic policy, originally published in 1989, argues that key government objectives, such as reduced inflation, decreased unemployment and an adequate level of national saving can be achieved only by employing both monetary and fiscal policies, in conjunction with supply-side policies expressly designed to improve the workings of the labour market. Part 1 is a comparative analysis showing the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on the economy. Real-wage rigidity in the labour market is shown to have important consequences for the working of both types of policy, because it conditions the economy’s response to tax changes. Part 2 presents an econometric model which combines consistent stock-flow accounts with a full range of expectational effects. Part 3 presents an innovative technique for solving rational expectations models with the need for arbitary terminal conditions.

The Anatomy of Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market

The Anatomy of Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market
Author: Kodjovi M. Eklou
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2023-07-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Monetary policy transmission in EMs has been found to be weak historically due to under-developed financial markets and heavy central bank intervention in FX markets that undermine the exchange rate channel. Against this background, this paper investigates the transmission of monetary policy, including the role of external factors, in Malaysia and highlight findings that could be relevant for other EMs. We find an important role for the credit and the exchange rate channels. Further, we also find a complementary role for policy tools including Foreign Exchange Intervention (FXI) and liquidity tools such as Statutory Reserve Requirement in shaping the transmission of monetary policy. We then explore the spillover effects of external global factors including global monetary policy and global commodity prices on monetary policy transmission in a small open economy such as Malaysia. The results show that while global commodity prices do not impair monetary policy transmission, global monetary policy tightening could complement domestic efforts to achieve price stability by inducing a global disinflation. Finally, monetary policy transmission is delayed and weakened in high inflationary environment, with the implication that more aggressive and preemptive policy actions may be needed in such cases.

Response of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate to Real Disturbances in Developing Countries

Response of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate to Real Disturbances in Developing Countries
Author: Mr.Mohsin S. Khan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 24
Release: 1991
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Using a simple dependent - economy framework, this paper outlines the links between the equilibrium real exchange rate and some of its fundamental exogenous determinants, mainly terms of trade movements and commercial policy changes. Drawing on existing studies of trade flows in developing countries, it is possible to derive plausible quantitative ranges for the response of the equilibrium real exchange rate to both external and policy-induced shocks. The results should be particularly relevant in designing real exchange rate targets and rules that allow for movements in the equilibrium real exchange rate in response to various shocks.

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
Author: Jongrim Ha
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 513
Release: 2019-02-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464813760

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This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

In Search of Price Rigidities (Recent Sector Evidence from Argentina)

In Search of Price Rigidities (Recent Sector Evidence from Argentina)
Author: Cesar Revoredo
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 1999
Genre:
ISBN:

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December 1995 Monetary and exchange rate policies have different effects on relative prices among economic sectors -- and thus significantly influence the real side of the economy. The hypothesis that the price adjustment to nominal shocks is instantaneous has been part of the monetarist approach explaining the inflationary process in Argentina. But Morisset and Revoredo argue that monetary and exchange rate policies have had different effects on relative prices and thus have a significant influence on the real side of the economy. The existence of rigidities has prevented full and instantaneous price adjustments. Recent work on inflation in imperfectly competitive markets explains rigidities as a consequence of firms' strategic responses to nominal shocks, which in turn depend on the market structure and demand elasticities faced by firms. Price rigidities emerge when firms facing changes in aggregate demand behave collusively, and there are costs for customers to switch between suppliers. The higher the collusive behavior, the higher the possibility for these firms to maintain or eventually increase their prices during recession. In contrast, when the costs for customers to switch between suppliers are low, firms are obliged to adjust their prices to new demand conditions, otherwise they will lose their customers. Changes in foreign prices affect domestic prices depending on the degree of foreign competition and the price formation mechanism in each sector. As expected, price rigidities are minimal in tradable sectors where firms react to these changes by changing their prices almost instantaneously (although not one-for-one). The response in nontradable activities depends on indirect effects and whether prices are indexed to a foreign currency, likely when transactions are conducted in a foreign currency. Because understanding this is essential for effective policymaking, Morisset and Revoredo analyze price behavior of four economic sectors -- agriculture, industry, (retail) commerce, and services -- in Argentina from 1981 - 94. (The two nontradable sectors account for most GDP and employment in Argentina.) The econometric analysis shows large differences in the price behavior across sectors. Firms do not respond uniformly to changes in production costs, foreign prices, and demand conditions. The conclusions have obvious policy implications. The response of individual prices reflects the distribution of adjustment costs across sectors in the case of nominal shocks. This is most evident when, facing a recession, some sectors are able to maintain their margins through collusive behavior, while others have to reduce them to retain their customers. To maintain social and political stability, the government's challenge is to minimize divergence across sectors. Increasing competition appears to be a crucial element of this strategy since monopolistic power is frequently associated with the existence of price rigidities. This paper -- a product of the Country Operations Division, Country Department I, Latin America and the Caribbean -- is part of a larger effort in the department to understand goods and services market behavior in developing countries.