European Commissions Forecasts Accuracy Revisited
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Author | : Marco Fioramanti |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 82 |
Release | : 2016 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9789279544262 |
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This paper updates a previous assessment of the European Commission's track record for forecasting key economic variables (González Cabanillas and Terzi 2012) by extending the observation period to 2014. It also examines the accuracy of the Commission's forecasts over a shorter and more recent period (2000-2014) so that a comparison can be made between the performance of forecasts made before and after the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Going beyond the 2012 approach, this paper also examines the extent to which forecast errors can be explained by external or technical assumptions that prove incorrect ex post. It also updates the comparison of the Commission's performance vis à vis the OECD, the IMF, a consensus forecast of market economists, and the ECB. Inclusion of the 2012-2014 period lowers the forecasting error for some key variables or leads to no change in others.^Focussing on the years since the turn of the century, current-year and year-ahead forecasting errors for the three main variables examined (GDP growth, inflation and general government balances) have been larger in the crisis and post-crisis period (2008-2014) than in the precrisis period (2000-2007) for a large majority of Member States. This appears mainly to be the result of an anomalously large error in 2009, a year which confounded many forecasters. The country-by-country analysis confirms the finding of earlier studies which show that the Commission's forecasts are largely unbiased. The newly-introduced panel data approach also confirms the absence of bias in current-year GDP forecasts across EU Member States but shows that year-ahead forecasts for GDP growth tend to be slightly over optimistic across the whole sample. The analysis also shows that autocorrelation of forecast errors is not a major issue in the Commission's forecasts.^Other advanced tests shed more light on the performance of the Commission's forecasts, demonstrating that they are directionally accurate and generally beat a naïve forecast but that they are not always efficient in terms of their use of all available data. The decomposition of forecast errors shows that unexpected changes in external assumptions seem to have only a limited impact on current-year GDP growth forecasts. However, more than half of the variance in year-ahead forecast errors appears to come from external assumptions that prove to be incorrect ex post. Finally, the Commission's economic forecasts come out as being more accurate than those of the market and comparable to those of the other international institutions considered.
Author | : Marco Fioramanti |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : |
Release | : 2016 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
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Author | : Laura González Cabanillas |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 53 |
Release | : 2012 |
Genre | : Economic forecasting |
ISBN | : 9789279229978 |
Download The Accuracy of the European Commission's Forecasts Re-examined Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
"This paper analyses the Commission's forecast track record, by building on previous analyses. The extension of the observation period to 2011 allows a first analysis of forecast accuracy during the years of the economic and financial crisis. Over the full timespan, forecasts for the EU and euro area are found to be generally unbiased. The same holds true for the outlook for most Member States, largely confirming earlier results. Moreover, the Commission services track record appears generally in line with that of the OECD, IMF and Consensus Economics, and in some cases better. Finally, while the analysis points to a limited impact of the crisis on the accuracy of the Commission's current-year forecasts, a significant deterioration of the accuracy of year-ahead projections is found. This applies in particular for the forecasts of GDP, investment, inflation and the government budget balance, due mainly to larger forecast errors in the recession year 2009, which by all standards proved exceptional and unanticipated by institutional and market forecasters."--Document home page.
Author | : Filip Keereman |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 88 |
Release | : 1999 |
Genre | : Economic forecasting |
ISBN | : |
Download The Track Record of the Commission Forecasts Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Recoge: El registro de datos de los pronósticos de la Comisión. -Los pronósticos en la Comisión Europea.- Variables y datos.- Método y panorámica.- Características básicas de los datos de muestra.- Características básicas de los errores de pronóstico.- Persistencia de errores de pronóstico.- Imparcialidad.- Eficiencia.- Exactitud a través del tiempo.- Exactitud direccional.- Reconocimiento de ciclos.- Revisión de los pronósticos a través del ciclo.- El contexto internacional.- La interdependencia de los errores de pronóstico.- La susceptibilidad de los errores de pronóstico a un conjunto alternativo de datos de realización.- Comparación con pronósticos externos.
Author | : Hannu Jokinen |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 18 |
Release | : 1993 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download Economic Forecasting in the European Commission Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Author | : Alain Coen |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 40 |
Release | : 2008 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Download The Relative Importance of Forecast Accuracy Determinants Revisited Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
We analyze earnings forecasting errors made by financial analysts for 18 European countries over the 1995-2006 period. We use the Heston-Rouwenhorst approach to unravel country-, industry-, and firm-specific effects as a source of variation in financial analysts' earnings forecast errors. We first estimate each effect with a dummy variable regression, and then decompose the variance of forecast errors into different effects. We provide evidence that the differences among countries, industrial sectors, or analyst following offer a weak explanation for differences in forecast errors. Country effects however largely dominate industry and analyst following effects on European stock markets. By contrast, the type of earnings - profits or losses - and variations in earnings - increases or decreases - play a significant role in the performance of financial analysts.
Author | : Theo S. Eicher |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 33 |
Release | : 2018-03-09 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484345436 |
Download Forecasts in Times of Crises Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF’s Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias, efficiency, and information content to find that IMF forecasts add substantial informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of nominal GDP, public investment, private investment, the current account, net transfers, and government expenditures) exhibit significant forecast bias. Forecasts for low-income countries are the main drivers of forecast bias and inefficiency, reflecting perhaps larger shocks and lower data quality. When we decompose the forecast errors into their sources, we find that forecast errors for private consumption growth are the key contributor to GDP growth forecast errors. Similarly, forecast errors for non-interest expenditure growth and tax revenue growth are crucial determinants of the forecast errors in the growth of fiscal budgets. Forecast errors for balance of payments growth are significantly influenced by forecast errors in goods import growth. The results highlight which macroeconomic aggregates require further attention in future forecast models for countries in crises.
Author | : matteo villa |
Publisher | : Ledizioni |
Total Pages | : 106 |
Release | : 2020-05-14 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 8855262025 |
Download The Future of Migration to Europe Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Even as the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror.This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?
Author | : Peter J. N. Sinclair |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 402 |
Release | : 2009-12-16 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1135179778 |
Download Inflation Expectations Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author | : Han Phoumin |
Publisher | : Springer Nature |
Total Pages | : 304 |
Release | : 2022-09-19 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9811942668 |
Download Revisiting Electricity Market Reforms Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle
This book combines the fundamentals of industrial organization theories based on microeconomic foundations, applied econometrics and environmental and natural resource economics in undertaking a comprehensive review of reforms of the power sector and its impact on industrial and socio-economic performance. The book provides the reader with the intellectual groundwork necessary for understanding the workings and interactions of today’s reforming power markets such as in the ASEAN and East Asia that are striving to achieve the energy policy trilemma of affordability, energy sustainability and energy security. The topics addressed in this book include application of welfare theorems such as competition in and for the market in the electricity sector, market failures such as lack of electricity access, analysis of forecasting models under volatility, energy resource allocation such as renewable energy and competitive market designs of energy markets. Country-specific and region-specific case studies are used to analyze the progress and outcomes of market-driven electricity reforms across the reforming and advanced electricity markets. Therefore, the book derives policy lessons and provides policy recommendations in reforming power markets for the ASEAN and East Asia taking stock of more than three decades of global experience with power sector reforms. The electricity markets case studies are carefully chosen and supported by extensive data analyses as appropriate. This book on energy economics and policy is highly recommended to readers who seek an in-depth and up-to-date integrated overview about the evolving literature and status on electricity market reforms with a particular reference to Asia.