Essays on Transition Challenges for Alternative Propulsion Vehicles and Transportation Systems

Essays on Transition Challenges for Alternative Propulsion Vehicles and Transportation Systems
Author: Jeroen J. R. Struben
Publisher:
Total Pages: 302
Release: 2006
Genre:
ISBN:

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Technology transitions require the formation of a self-sustaining market through alignment of consumers' interests, producers' capabilities, infrastructure development, and regulations. In this research I develop a broad behavioral dynamic model of the prospective transition to alternative fuel vehicles. In Essay one I focus on the premise that automobile purchase decisions are strongly shaped by cultural norms, personal experience, and social interactions. To capture these factors, I examine important social processes conditioning alternative vehicle diffusion, including the generation of consumer awareness through feedback from driving experience, word of mouth and marketing. Through analysis of a simulation model I demonstrate the existence of a critical threshold for the sustained adoption of alternative technologies, and show how the threshold depends on behavioral, economic and physical system parameters. Word-of-mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is important in stimulating diffusion. Further, I show that marketing and subsidies for alternatives must remain in place for long periods for diffusion to become self-sustaining.

Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems

Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems
Author: Jeroen Struben
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

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Automakers are now developing alternatives to internal combustion engines (ICE), including hydrogen fuel cells and ICE-electric hybrids. Adoption dynamics for alternative vehicles are complex due to the size and importance of the auto industry and vehicle installed base. Diffusion of alternative vehicles is both enabled and constrained by powerful positive feedbacks arising from scale and scope economies, Ramp;D, learning by doing, driver experience, word of mouth, and complementary resources such as fueling infrastructure. We describe a dynamic model of the diffusion of and competition among alternative fuel vehicles, including coevolution of the fleet, technology, consumer behavior, and complementary resources. Here we focus on the generation of consumer awareness of alternatives through feedback from consumers' experience, word of mouth and marketing, with a reduced form treatment of network effects and other positive feedbacks (which we treat in other papers). We demonstrate the existence of a critical threshold for sustained adoption of alternative technologies, and show how the threshold depends on economic and behavioral parameters. We show that word of mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is important in stimulating diffusion. Expanding the model boundary to include learning, technological spillovers and spatial coevolution of fueling infrastructure adds additional feedbacks that condition the diffusion of alternative vehicles. Results show scenarios for successful diffusion of alternative vehicles, but also suggest that marketing programs and subsidies for alternatives must remain in place for long periods for diffusion to become self-sustaining.

Handbook of Applied System Science

Handbook of Applied System Science
Author: Zachary Neal
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 657
Release: 2016-11-25
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 1317607082

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The Handbook of Applied System Science is organized around both methodological approaches in systems science, and the substantive topic to which these approaches have been applied. The volume begins with an essay that introduces three system science methods: agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and network analysis. The remainder of the volume is organized around three broad topics: (1) health and human development, (2) environment and sustainability, and (3) communities and social change. Each part begins with a brief introductory essay, and includes nine chapters that demonstrate the application of system science methods to address research questions in these areas. This handbook will be useful for work in Public Health, Sociology, Criminal Justice, Social Work, Political Science, Environmental Studies, Urban Studies, and Psychology. Chapter 14 of this book is freely available as a downloadable Open Access PDF under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license available at http://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9781315748771.

Fuel Distribution Networks

Fuel Distribution Networks
Author: Adam Strozek
Publisher: diplom.de
Total Pages: 89
Release: 2009-10-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3836636549

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Inhaltsangabe:Introduction: Transport is a key factor in modern economies. There are an estimated 31.5 million road goods vehicles running on Europe s motorways each year, which are coping with a steadily increasing amount of goods transported. Although these vehicles are crucial to guarantee the ubiquitous goods availability we are used to, and to assure the flexibility of European industry, they are also part of mankind s most pressing current problems. For instance, the emission of greenhouse gases, i.e. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (NO2), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), due to fuel combustion in goods transport constitutes about 20 per cent of overall greenhouse gas emission and is only outnumbered by emissions of the energy industry. Overall decrease of these contaminants shall be, of course, one of the main objectives in the long-term, but in particular within urban agglomerations it is also of great interest to decrease local emission levels as a first sep. Changing over to less carbon-intensive fuels can reduce local carbon dioxide and other emissions, even if the well-to-wheel emission level does not improve notably. Apart from the emission problem, nearly 99% of the overall fuel consumption in transport is provided by fossil fuels and therefore competing for the finite crude oil resources with other industries, in particular the energy industry. There are many different forecasts of how long world s oil reserves will last, but independently of these estimations it is undeniable that they will end sometime. Hence, it is the second vital transport-related challenge to make it independent from fossil energy resources by developing and introducing renewable fuels, complying technologies to run them and a reliable infrastructure to distribute them. Although there are still many problems to solve regarding technical issues, many viable solutions for running vehicles by other means than diesel and gasoline are already available. However, the biggest problem seems to be the distribution. Since vehicles and fueling infrastructure are complementarities, most customers do not use these vehicles because they can not refill them properly, and fuel companies do not introduce new fuel stations due to a lack of customers, that would use them. Consequently the main challenge currently is to break through this chicken-egg problem and build up a fuel distribution network, which [...]

Environment and Planning

Environment and Planning
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 590
Release: 2008
Genre: Architecture
ISBN:

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Essays on the Dynamics of Alternative Fuel Vehicle Adoption

Essays on the Dynamics of Alternative Fuel Vehicle Adoption
Author: David Ross Keith
Publisher:
Total Pages: 212
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

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Despite growing energy security and environmental concerns about dependence on oil as a transportation fuel, gasoline remains the overwhelmingly dominant fuel used by the US automotive fleet. Numerous previous efforts to introduce alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) fueled by hydrogen, biofuels and electricity have failed, and significant barriers to a rapid transition to AFVs remain. One technology that has achieved considerable success in the US is the gasoline hybrid-electric vehicle (HEV), which integrate gasoline and electric powertrain components to significantly improve the efficiency of gasoline use. Since their introduction in 1999, over 2 million HEVs have been sold in the US, with more than 30 HEV models available to consumers today. In this dissertation I explore the dynamics of adoption of HEVs, examining factors influencing consumer adoption of HEVs to date, and, looking forward, the role of HEVs in the emerging market for plug-in electric vehicles (EVs). In Essay 1, I examine the market for the iconic Toyota Prius HEV. While more than 1 million Prius vehicles have been sold in the US, this market has been characterized by long wait lists at Toyota dealerships, evidence of supply constraints influencing the diffusion process. The innovation diffusion literature says relatively little about supply constraints, representing diffusion as a fundamentally demand-side process. Here I develop a model of innovation diffusion that incorporates production capacity and dealer inventory. Inclusion of supply constraints improves the explanatory power of the model in the Prius case, and demonstrates that the failure to model supply constraints can bias diffusion model parameter estimates. Essay 2 is motivated by the observation that Prius sales are not uniform geographically. Sales of the Prius have clustered in regions such as the West Coast, around Washington DC and through New England, with many fewer sales of the Prius in the south and mid-west. I propose two alternative hypotheses to explain the emergence of these clusters: 1) contagion through consumers' social networks; and 2) market heterogeneity that influences consumers' adoption thresholds. I develop a model of spatial innovation diffusion that captures spatial information generation between regions and consumer discrete choice between technologies. I find that in the Prius case, adoption clustering is explained by social contagion at the local level, which amplifies heterogeneous adoption thresholds. In Essay 3, I explore the future role of HEVs as a transitional technology in the emerging market for plug-in EVs, which hold the potential to achieve deep cuts in oil consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The technology strategy literature suggests that hybrids technologies help the transition to radical technologies, accumulating producer learning, consumer familiarity and complementary assets that spillover to the radical technology. However, EVs remain expensive, have a limited electric range and lack a ubiquitous recharging infrastructure, while HEVs are relatively cheaper and refuel from the existing gasoline refueling infrastructure. I develop a model of hybrid and electric vehicle diffusion with multiple competing entrants, finding that the smooth transition from HEVs to EVs is possible but not assured, identifying public policy and firm strategy decisions that have the potential to accelerate this transition.

Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels

Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 395
Release: 2013-04-14
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0309268524

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For a century, almost all light-duty vehicles (LDVs) have been powered by internal combustion engines operating on petroleum fuels. Energy security concerns about petroleum imports and the effect of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on global climate are driving interest in alternatives. Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels assesses the potential for reducing petroleum consumption and GHG emissions by 80 percent across the U.S. LDV fleet by 2050, relative to 2005. This report examines the current capability and estimated future performance and costs for each vehicle type and non-petroleum-based fuel technology as options that could significantly contribute to these goals. By analyzing scenarios that combine various fuel and vehicle pathways, the report also identifies barriers to implementation of these technologies and suggests policies to achieve the desired reductions. Several scenarios are promising, but strong, and effective policies such as research and development, subsidies, energy taxes, or regulations will be necessary to overcome barriers, such as cost and consumer choice.

Organizations in Time

Organizations in Time
Author: Marcelo Bucheli
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 354
Release: 2014
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199646899

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This book brings together leading organization scholars and business historians to examine the opportunities and challenges of incorporating historical research into the study of firms and markets.

Three Essays on Transition to Alternative Fuel Vehicles Through Distributive Justice

Three Essays on Transition to Alternative Fuel Vehicles Through Distributive Justice
Author: Wissam El Hachem
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

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In this thesis, we have investigated the transition from internal combustion engines (ICE) to alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) while considering the social dimension via the concept of DJ. This enabled us to highlight the many tradeoffs at play between the different policy instruments as well as between the three sustainability pillars, and therefore to minimize them. Each of the essays looked at AFV transition from a different angle with each one complementing the other two. Each of the essays has some limitations that were partially dealt with in the other two essays. However, there remains plenty of work to be done on this subject in the future.

Alternative Cars in the 21st Century

Alternative Cars in the 21st Century
Author: Robert Q Riley
Publisher: SAE International
Total Pages: 544
Release: 2003-10-17
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 0768047765

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The rapidly changing landscape of alternative car technologies created the need for the second edition of Alternative Cars in the 21st Century: A New Personal Transportation Paradigm. This essential publication provides an abundance of critical knowledge for engineering professionals and consumers alike, offering a brighter alternative future through better alternative cars.