Essays on Fiscal Policy and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt

Essays on Fiscal Policy and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt
Author: Fraser William Knox
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

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This thesis consists of three essays which relate to the conduct of fiscal policy and the pricing of sovereign debt. The first chapter examines the credibility of official budgetary projections produced by the fiscal authorities of EU member states, as required under the provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact. Drawing upon existing studies, evidence is presented which demonstrates that these official projections are characterised by optimism bias, i.e. announced budgetary adjustments persistently falls short of those observed in practice. This chapter contributes to the existing literature by identifying a systematic link between the magnitude of this optimism bias and the degree of fragmentation which characterises the government: whereby greater fragmentation of this type coincides with a tendency to submit more optimistic projections. Numerical fiscal rules are then considered as a mechanism for improving the credibility of these projections and it shown that budgetary strictures of this form have been effective in reducing the optimism bias which emerges when government fragmentation increases. The second chapter investigates the relative importance of systematic risk and conventional fiscal indicators in characterising the default risks of EMU member states and as potential explanations of pricing disparities which exist between public debt securities issued by these countries. Using both a portfolio approach and Fama and Macbeth cross-sectional regressions it is demonstrated that measures of systematic default risk (approximated by an issuer's default beta) and fiscal indicators overlap in the manner of risks which they represent. It is also shown that the common variation which exists between these alternate measures is relevant in explaining difference in the excess returns on EMU public debt securities in sample periods which both include and exclude the recent sovereign debt crisis. The third and final chapter uses a panel data model to examine yield spreads on ten-year public debt securities issued by EMU sovereign nations from 2005 to 2012. Existing studies have highlighted that there are (at times) substantial discrepancies between the spreads implied this class of model and the value of spreads observed in practice, particularly since the advent of the sovereign debt crisis in late 2009. Evidence of this nature has been used to substantiate arguments that financial markets have incorrectly priced the relative risks associated with these securities given that their prices cannot be related to an assumed fundamental basis. In this chapter I present an alternative account of evolutions in EMU yield spreads during the crisis which focuses upon the scale of macroeconomic imbalances characterising certain member states and their implications for public debt sustainability. It is shown that once these factors are taken into account up to 83% of the observed variation in yield spreads can be explained over this period. These results re-establish the importance of fundamentals in understanding market based perceptions of sovereign default risk during the crisis.

Public Debts

Public Debts
Author: Henry Carter Adams
Publisher: New York : D. Appleton
Total Pages: 432
Release: 1895
Genre: Debts, Public
ISBN:

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Essays on Sovereign Debt and Monetary Economics

Essays on Sovereign Debt and Monetary Economics
Author: Diego J. Perez
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation contains three essays on Sovereign Debt and Monetary Economics. The first chapter, entitled 'Sovereign Debt, Domestic Banks and the Provision of Public Liquidity' studies the effect of a sovereign default in the domestic economy and its implications for the government's incentives to repay its debt. I explore two mechanisms through which a sovereign default can disrupt the domestic economy via its banking system. First, a sovereign default creates a negative balance-sheet effect on banks, which reduces their ability to raise funds and prevents the flow of resources to productive investments. Second, default undermines internal liquidity as banks replace government securities with less productive investments. I quantify the model using Argentinean data and find that these two mechanisms can generate a deep and persistent fall in output post-default, which accounts for the government's commitment necessary to explain observed levels of external public debt. The balance-sheet effect is more important because it generates a larger output cost of default and a stronger ex-ante commitment for the government. Post-default bailouts of the banking system, although desirable ex-post, are welfare reducing ex-ante since they weaken government's commitment. Imposing a minimum public debt requirement on banks is welfare improving as it enhances commitment by increasing the output cost of default. The second chapter, entitled 'Sovereign Debt Maturity Structure Under Asymmetric Information' studies the optimal choice of sovereign debt maturity when investors are unaware of the government's willingness to repay. Under a pooling equilibrium there is a wedge between the borrower's true default risk and the default risk priced in debt, and the size of this wedge differs with the maturity of debt. Long-term debt becomes less attractive for safe borrowers since it pools more default risk that is not inherent to them. In response, safe borrowers issue low levels of debt with a shorter maturity profile -relative to the optimal choice under perfect information- and risky borrowers mimic the behavior of safe borrowers to preclude the market from identifying their type. In times of financial distress, the default risk wedge of long-term debt relative to short-term debt increases which makes borrowers reduce the amount of debt issuance and shorten its maturity profile. I present empirical evidence on sovereign debt maturity choices and sovereign spreads for a panel of emerging economies that is consistent with the model's implications. The third chapter, entitled 'Price Setting Under Uncertainty About Inflation', is based on a working paper coauthored with Andres Drenik. This chapter provides an empirical assessment of the effects of the availability of public information about inflation on price setting. We exploit an event in which economic agents lost access to information about the inflation rate: starting in 2007 the Argentinean government began to misreport the national inflation rate. Our difference-in-difference analysis reveals that this policy led to an increase in the coefficient of variation of prices of 18% with respect to its mean. This effect is analyzed in the context of a general equilibrium model in which agents make use of publicly available information about the inflation rate to set prices. We quantify the model and use it to further explore the effects of higher uncertainty about inflation on the effectiveness of monetary policy and aggregate welfare. We find that monetary policy becomes more effective in a context of higher uncertainty about inflation and that not reporting accurate measures of the CPI entails significant welfare losses.

Essays in Monetary Economics (Collected Works of Harry Johnson)

Essays in Monetary Economics (Collected Works of Harry Johnson)
Author: Harry Johnson
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 341
Release: 2013-07-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1134623569

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Reprinting the second edition (which included a new introduction explaining developments which had emerged since first publication) this book discusses explorations in the fundamental theory of a monetary economy, a theoretical critique of the ‘Phillips Curve’ approach to the theory of inflation and the theory of the term structure of interest rates in terms of the theory of forward markets pioneered by David Meiselman.

Public Debts

Public Debts
Author: Henry Carter Adams
Publisher: Ayer Publishing
Total Pages: 407
Release: 1898
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780405069468

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First published in 1887, this book treats public borrowing as a financial topic and probes its social and political implications. Included are chapters on advantages and risks of foreign loans, the management of public debts and their impact on industrial development.

Essays in Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Essays in Fiscal and Monetary Policy
Author: Michael J. Artis
Publisher: Oxford ; New York : Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 232
Release: 1981
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Compilation of essays on design, measurement and effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy in the UK - using econometric models, analyses short term and long term effects in a closed economy, on an open economy under alternative exchange rates, and the assumptions concerning capital flow. Bibliography pp. 186 to 193, graphs, references and statistical tables.

Essays in Finance, Sovereign Debt Maturity, and Debt Ownership Structure

Essays in Finance, Sovereign Debt Maturity, and Debt Ownership Structure
Author: Yu Man Tam
Publisher:
Total Pages: 92
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation explores the relationship between sovereign debt ownership, default probabilities, and debt returns, focusing on the increasing domestic debt ownership in devloped countries since the global financial crisis in 2007. It also explains, both theoretically and empircally, how changes in sovereign debt maturity structure would affect the real economy. This dissertation helps advance the study of the linkages between sovereign debt composition, asset prices and the real economy. In the first chapter, I study the relationship bewteen sovereign debt default and debt ownership structure. Major developed countries have experienced a significant run-up in public debt after the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008. However, the impact on sovereign debt ownership varies across countries. Specifically, the share of debt held by domestic banks has increased in GIIPS countries but declined in non-GIIPS countries. I explain the cross-country differences in debt ownership structure using a dynamic equilibrium model with strategic and non-discriminatory defaults, in which sovereign debt can serve as collateral for expanding private investments. The key insight is that the share of debt held domestically is positively correlated with the government's incentive to default. Consequently, the model predicts that the share of domestically-held debt is strictly increasing in total debt only in highly-indebted countries whose debt has low collateral value. My result is consistent with the notion that domestic debt is a committment device for debt repayment. The key policy implication is that changes in debt ownership are important indicators for the optimality of public debt level. Using data from a panel of 11 countries between 2007 and 2014, I find evidence consistent with these predictions. In the second chapter, I study the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies, and how changes in fiscal policies, such as the level of debt and debt maturity composition, would affect inflation, the real economy and asset prices. I developed a three-period equilibrium model, in which monetary policies are modelled as open market operations. In my model, inflation and the term structure of interest rates are jointly determined by monetary and fiscal policies, and therefore Sargent (1981)'s "game of chicken'' problem is avoided. I show from the model that fiscal instruments, such as the primary surplus, and the level and maturity structure of government debt, have important implications on inflations and the term structure of interest rates. I then provide robust empirical evidence on how changes in debt-maturity structure are associated with changes in future inflation using U.S. data. One percent increase in the fraction of short-term debt issued is associated with more than 0.2 percent increase in future inflation of different horizons. Empirical evidecne also shows that changes in the short-end of the maturity structure has the most explanatory power over short- and medium- horizons, whereas changes in the long-end of the maturity structure has the most explanatory power over long- horizons.

Public Debts; an Essay in the Science of Finance

Public Debts; an Essay in the Science of Finance
Author: Henry Carter Adams
Publisher: Theclassics.Us
Total Pages: 130
Release: 2013-09
Genre:
ISBN: 9781230270975

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This historic book may have numerous typos and missing text. Purchasers can usually download a free scanned copy of the original book (without typos) from the publisher. Not indexed. Not illustrated. 1887 edition. Excerpt: ...We were also led to approve the principle underlying the law for the resumption of specie payments, by which the United States came back to a sound monetary basis. CHAPTER IV. PEACE MANAGEMENT OF A PUBLIC DEBT. Theee can be no controversy respecting the pxirpose that should control the management of a public debt in time of peace. The payments entailed are a continuous drain upon the productive resources of the people, and it consequently becomes the duty of the financier to lighten by every honest means the burdens thus imposed. Under the guidance of such a purpose, we are led to recognize three ideas which may properly direct the peace policy of any government. 1. The evils of a debt may be mitigated if public obligations are made to perform some useful service. 2. The burden of a debt may be lightened by reducing the rate of interest paid. 3. The burden of a debt may be extinguished by repayment of the capital borrowed. Three distinct problems are thus introduced; the first pertains to the profitable use of the debt, the second to the conversion of the debt, and the third to the payment of the debt. The last of these is of sufficient importance to claim for itself a separate chapter, the others will be taken into immediate consideration. Profitable Use of Public Debts. A public debt comes to be of general convenience when of such form and character as to serve the purpose of investments, or as the basis of contracts. It should then be the first object of the financier to so, fashion the public contracts under which a debt is held as to meet the demands of commercial transactions. It does not seem necessary to enumerate and classify the various investors in public bonds whose needs should be consulted. Such a classification would...

Essays on Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in Small Open Economies

Essays on Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in Small Open Economies
Author: Thitima Chucherd
Publisher:
Total Pages: 474
Release: 2013
Genre: Fiscal policy
ISBN:

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This thesis addresses interactions between monetary and fiscal policies in a theoretical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy and in an empirical model under a structural vector error correction model (SVECM). The thesis consists of three essays. The contribution is both theoretical and empirical that enables a better understanding of the complexity of interactions between monetary and fiscal policies in small open economies. The first essay examines the equilibrium determinacy under monetary and fiscal rules. The goal is to investigate how monetary and fiscal policy interactions ensure a unique and non-explosive (determinate) equilibrium for a small open economy. The study focuses when policy makers implement a set of policy mixes to address domestic output price inflation control for monetary policy, debt stabilization for fiscal policy, and joint output stabilization tasks. The result indicates that two policy schemes facilitate a determinate equilibrium. First, monetary policy actively controls inflation when fiscal policy sets a sufficient feedback on debt. Second, monetary policy becomes passive against inflation when fiscal policy is insolvent. Adding output stabilization to each rule simply causes variants of this fundamental. An interest rate rule with output stabilization can be more passive against inflation while providing a stronger response to the output gap. Fiscal policy is required to set higher feedback on debt along with its stronger counter-cyclical policy. The second essay links between the equilibrium determinacy and policy optimization. This essay provides insights into the design of policy mixes and compares determinacy outcomes between two theoretical models of a small open economy: with and without an explicit exchange rate role. This study shows that policy interactions in a small open economy with an endogenous exchange rate is quite sophisticated, especially when a monetary rule is added with an output stabilization task and/or targeted to Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Additional concern for monetary policy in an open economy causes a partial offset to its reaction on domestic output price inflation that weakens its effect on the real debt burden. To minimize economic fluctuations, policy makers should mute the role of output stabilization for monetary policy, and set minimum feedback on debt that is compatible with the degree of counter-cyclical fiscal policy. Substantially active response to inflation is satisfactory for monetary policy with CPI inflation targeting. The third essay empirically presents monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Thailand's SVECM suggested by a theoretical DSGE model developed from the previous essays. This essay shows that the DSGE-SVECM model can be supported by Thai data. A shock to monetary policy is effective with a lag. Government spending policy is also effective with a lag and some crowding-out effects on output. An adverse shock in tax policy unexpectedly stimulates the economy, indicating room for enhancing economic growth by relaxing revenue constraint. Monetary policy is mainly implemented to correct a consequence of a fiscal shock on inflation (and also the domestic and foreign shocks), while fiscal policy appears to counter a consequence of the monetary policy shock on output.