Essays on Capital Flows, Crises and Economic Performance

Essays on Capital Flows, Crises and Economic Performance
Author: Abdilahi Ali
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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This thesis explores three important factors that have been central to the pursuit of economic development in developing countries, particularly those in Africa. These are capital flows, economic integration and financial crises. Chapter 1 examines the causes and consequences of capital flight in African countries. Building on standard portfolio choice model, the study links the phenomenon of capital flight to the domestic investment climate (broadly defined) and shows that African agents move their portfolios abroad as a result of a deteriorating domestic investment climate where the risk-adjusted rate of return is unfavourable. The results presented suggest that economic risk, policy distortions and the poor profitability of African investments explain the variation in capital flight. In addition, employing a PVAR and its corresponding impulse responses, the chapter shows that capital flight shocks worsen economic performance. Chapter 2 explores the (independent) effects of crises and openness on a large sample of African countries using dynamic panel techniques. Focusing on sudden stops, currency, twin and sovereign debt crises, the chapter shows that economic crises are associated with growth collapses in Africa. In contrast, economic openness is found to be beneficial to growth. More importantly, we find that, consistent with standard Mundell-Flemming type models and sticky-price open economy models, greater openness to trade and financial flows mitigates the adverse effects of crises. In the final chapter, we examine whether capital flows such as FDI, foreign aid and migrant remittances crowd-in or crowd-out domestic investment in developing countries. Applying recently developed panel cointegration techniques which can handle cross-sectional heterogeneity, serial correlation and endogeneity, we find that FDI and remittances have a positive and significant effect on domestic investment in the long-run while aid tends to act as a substitute for investment. We also conduct panel Granger causality analysis and find that the effect of FDI on investment is both transitory as well as permanent. That is, it tends to crowd-in domestic investment both in the short-run and in the long-run. We do not find any causal links between foreign aid and investment. The results show that, while remittances do not have causal effects on investment in the short-run, there is a bidirectional (causal) relationship between the two in the long-run.

Capital Flows and Crises

Capital Flows and Crises
Author: Barry J. Eichengreen
Publisher: MIT Press
Total Pages: 396
Release: 2004
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780262550598

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An analysis of the connections between capital flows and financial crises as well as between capital flows and economic growth.

Capital Flows and Financial Crises

Capital Flows and Financial Crises
Author: Miles Kahler
Publisher: Manchester University Press
Total Pages: 290
Release: 1998
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780719056499

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Capital flows to the developing economies have long displayed a boom-and-bust pattern. However, rarely has the cycle turned as abruptly as it did in the 1990s, when the surges in lending were followed by the Mexican peso crisis of 1994-95, and the sudden collapse of currencies in Asia in 1997 and 1998. The volume maps an uncertain financial landscape in which volatile private capital flows and fragile banking systems produce sudden reversals of fortune for governments and economies. This environment creates dilemmas for both national policy-makers who confront the mixed blessing of capital inflows and the international institutions that manage the recurrent crises.

The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis

The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis
Author: Swarnali Ahmed Hannan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2017-03-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475586787

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Using a sample of 34 emerging markets and developing economies over the period 2009Q3-2015Q4, the paper employs a panel framework to study the determinants of capital flows, both net and gross, across a wide range of instruments. The baseline regressions are then extended to focus on high and low episodes – quarters with flows one standard deviation above/below mean. Overall, the results suggest that the capital flow slowdown witnessed in recent years is due to a combination of lower growth prospects of recipient countries and worse global risk sentiment. However, the determinants of flows can be considerably different across instruments and across the type of flows considered, net or gross. The sensitivity of certain types of flows, towards push and pull factors, increases during periods of high and low capital flows. Moreover, some variables may not necessarily be significant during normal times, but can be important drivers during such episodes, and vice versa. Indicators like the gap between the U.S. long- and short-term maturity bond yields – not significant during normal times – can be an important driver during high episodes.

Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates

Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates
Author: Reuven Glick
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 148
Release: 1998-06-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780521623230

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"This is a very timely book that brings the reader to the forefront of current research on macroeconomic policy issues in economies subject to sizable capital flows".--Guillermo A. Calvo, University of Maryland.

Short-term Capital Flows and Economic Crises

Short-term Capital Flows and Economic Crises
Author: Stephany Griffith-Jones
Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand
Total Pages: 313
Release: 2001
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780198296867

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The currency crises that engulfed East Asian economies in 1997 and Mexico in 1994 - and their high development costs - raise a serious concern about the net benefits for developing countries of large flows of potentially reversible short-term international capital. Written by senior policy-makers and academics, the contributions to this volume examine in depth the macroeconomic and other policy dilemmas confronting public authorities in the emerging economies as they deal with short-termcapital movements, especially in the period before the outbreak of these crises. The studies are based on comparative case studies of key emerging economies. Valuable insights are also derived from contrasts between the East Asian, Latin American, African, and European experiences, between the financial and real effects of financial flows, and between private and public responsibilities in managing financial markets. The great value of the chapters in this volume is that they analytically identify the weaknesses in both domestic and international capital market regimes. The recommendations derived from this analysis apply to the development of financial markets in developing countries, the monitoring and regulation of mutual funds in source countries, and the future development of international capital markets. They will make an important contribution both to the discussion of national policies and of a new international financial architechture.

The Composition Matters

The Composition Matters
Author: Mr.Hui Tong
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2009-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451873115

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We study whether capital flows affect the degree of credit crunch faced by a country's manufacturing firms during the 2007-09 crisis. Examining 3823 firms in 24 emerging countries, we find that the decline in stock prices was more severe for firms that are intrinsically more dependent on external finance for working capital. The volume of capital flows has no significant effect on the severity of the credit crunch. However, the composition of capital flows matters: pre-crisis exposure to non-FDI capital inflows worsens the credit crunch, while exposure to FDI alleviates the liquidity constraint. Similar results also hold surrounding the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy

Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies

Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies
Author: Sebastian Edwards
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 366
Release: 2008-04-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226184722

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The 1990s witnessed several acute currency crises among developing nations that invariably spread to other nearby at-risk countries. These episodes—in Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Russia, and Brazil—were all exacerbated by speculative foreign investments and high-volume movements of capital in and out of those countries. Insufficient domestic controls and a sluggish international response further undermined these economies, as well as the credibility of external oversight agencies like the International Monetary Fund. This timely volume examines the correlation between volatile capital mobility, currency instability, and the threat of regional contagion, focusing particular attention on the emergent economies of Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Together these studies offer a new understanding of the empirical relationship between capital flows, international trade, and economic performance, and also afford key insights into realms of major policy concern.

Are capital controls a useful instrument of economic policy?

Are capital controls a useful instrument of economic policy?
Author: Daniel Detzer
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2010-07-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3640660358

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Essay from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, grade: 1,3, Berlin School of Economics and Law, course: International Trade and Monetary Economics, language: English, abstract: “Loose funds may sweep round the world disorganizing all steady business. Nothing is more certain than that the movement of capital funds must be regulated” Keynes, J.M. Already Keynes warned against a free movement of capital. Those warnings were taken seriously by the international community and the IMF allowed in its articles the use of capital controls. The attitude towards those controls changed remarkably during the 1980`s when a general trend towards deregulation occurred. This trend peaked in an attempt to include the purpose of liberalizing capital movements in the Articles of Agreements of the IMF. Coinciding with the Asian Crisis, parts of the academic profession heavily opposed this idea and eventually, some of the fund`s representatives revised their general opposition against capital controls. Nonetheless, in big parts of the academic profession, capital controls carry a negative smack and the ultimate goal of free capital flows is promoted. With the financial crisis, however, capital controls came into vogue again. Recently, Brazil introduced a tax on foreign portfolio investment. Also at the G20 level, ways on how to regulate international capital flows are discussed. Whether this should be seen as a desirable development or not, boils down to the question if capital controls are a useful instrument of economic policy? In general capital controls are any kind of policy that limits or redirects capital account transactions. So, the above mentioned question can be answered by looking at the situation of a fully liberalized capital account with its associated cost and benefits and see if state intervention in form of capital controls would be able to improve the situation. This discussion shall first rest on theoretical considerations and outline possible benefits of free capital flows. Thereafter, an important assumption, namely the Efficient Market Theorem, which allows for the prediction of those benefits, will be discussed. Subsequently, by dropping the EMT and introducing Keynesian uncertainty an alternative scenario is drawn and the effect of capital controls within this framework is examined. After this, some of the empirical research regarding the benefits of free capital flows will be examined and some of the areas where capital controls can play a beneficial role are introduced to the reader. Finally, the insights gained in the course of this paper will be summarized and an answer to the stated question will be given.