Essays in the Economics of Electricity Consumption

Essays in the Economics of Electricity Consumption
Author: Becka Brolinson
Publisher:
Total Pages: 504
Release: 2021
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

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This dissertation explores the economics of electricity consumption in three essays.

Essays in Energy and Development Economics

Essays in Energy and Development Economics
Author: Fiona Elizabeth Wilkes Burlig
Publisher:
Total Pages: 335
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

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As demand for electricity grows around the world, so does the need for rigorous evaluation of energy policy interventions. In this dissertation, I use large datasets and modern econometric methods to study two such policies at scale - rural electrification in India and energy efficiency subsidies in California. I find that the benefits associated with these interventions are substantially smaller than previously thought, highlighting the importance of using new techniques for causal inference in these settings. In Chapter 1, I study the impacts of grid-scale rural electrification in India, using a regression discontinuity framework. In Chapter 2, I evaluate energy efficiency upgrades in K-12 schools in California using high-frequency data and novel machine learning methods. In Chapter 3, I develop methods to guide experimental design in the presence of panel data. In the first chapter, coauthored with Louis Preonas, we study the impacts of energy access in the developing world. Over 1 billion people still lack electricity access. Developing countries are investing billions of dollars in rural electrification, targeting economic growth and poverty reduction, despite limited empirical evidence. We estimate the effects of rural electrification on economic development in the context of India's national electrification program, which reached over 400,000 villages. We use a regression discontinuity design and high-resolution geospatial data to identify medium-run economic impacts of electrification. We find a substantial increase in electricity use, but reject effects larger than 0.26 standard deviations across numerous measures of economic development, suggesting that rural electrification may be less beneficial than previously thought. In the second chapter, coauthored with Christopher R. Knittel, David Rapson, Mar Reguant, and Catherine Wolfram, we study the impacts of energy efficiency investments at public K-12 schools in California. We leverage high frequency data -- electricity use every 15 minutes -- to develop several approaches to estimating counterfactual energy consumption in the absence of the efficiency investments. In particular, We use difference-in-differences approaches with rich sets of fixed effects. We show, however, that these estimates are sensitive to the set of fixed effects included and to the set of schools included as controls. To address these concerns, We develop and implement a novel machine learning approach to predict counterfactual energy consumption at treated schools and validate the approach with non-treated schools. We find that the energy efficiency projects in our sample reduce electricity consumption between 2 to 5% on average, which can result in substantial savings to schools. We also compare our estimates of the energy savings to ex ante engineering estimates. Realized savings are generally less than 50% of ex ante forecasts and quite low for measures other than heating and air-conditioning systems or lighting. In the third chapter, coauthored with Louis Preonas and Matt Woerman, we seek to answer: How should researchers design experiments with panel data? We derive analytical expressions for the variance of panel estimators under non-i.i.d. error structures, which inform power calculations in panel data settings. Using Monte Carlo simulation, data from a randomized experiment in China, and high-frequency U.S. electricity consumption data, we demonstrate that traditional methods produce experiments that are incorrectly powered with proper inference. Failing to account for serial correlation yields overpowered experiments in short panels and underpowered experiments in long panels. Our theoretical results enable us to achieve correctly powered experiments in both simulated and real data.

Electricity Economics

Electricity Economics
Author: Ralph Turvey
Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press
Total Pages: 392
Release: 1977
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Although economists have discussed for many years the merits of relating prices to the marginal or incremental costs of supply in electrical utilities, the idea of marginal cost pricing has yet to gain the confidence of the engineers, accountants, financial analysts, and administrators who run and regulate the industry. Many do not understand marginal cost pricing, and most hold notions about the aims and equity of tariffs that differ markedly from those of economists. This book applies economic analysis to electricity pricing in a practical way. It offers a number of case studies that analyze the structure of marginal costs and translate them into possible tariffs. The authors accept the importance of revenue requirements and of equity in tariff making, but they also stress the importance of efficient allocation of resources. Tariffs can, as this book demonstrates, invariably be made more efficient than they are at present while still satisfying both revenue requirements and equity considerations. The authors include a survey of the appraisal of rural electrification projects. They also examine optimal techniques for planning entire systems and provide a number of theoretical studies on pricing and investment including a discussion on risk and indivisibilities.

Economics, Power and Culture

Economics, Power and Culture
Author: James Ronald Stanfield
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 251
Release: 2016-07-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1349237124

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This book depicts the need for an economics that addresses social provisioning in the context of power and culture. Such an approach is necessary to the development of an analysis that treats human wants and technology as endogenous variables, thereby avoiding the atavism inherent in conventional economics epistemology. Only in this way can the requisite re-viewing of the place of economy in society be brought to bear in an economic analysis capable of addressing the seemingly intractable problems of the democratic capitalist societies.

Essays on Environmental and Energy Economics

Essays on Environmental and Energy Economics
Author: Zeyu Wang
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation studies the household-level demand model for water and electricity, with the three chapters focusing on different aspects of the demand model. The first chapter, co-authored with my advisor, Frank Wolak, formulates and estimates a household-level, billing-cycle water demand model under increasing block prices that accounts for the impact of monthly weather variation, the amount of vegetation on the household's property, and customer-level heterogeneity in demand due to household demographics. The model utilizes US Census data on the distribution of household demographics in the utility's service territory to recover the impact of these factors on water demand. An index of the amount of vegetation on the household's property is obtained from NASA satellite data. The household-level demand models are used to compute the distribution of utility-level water demand and revenues for any possible price schedule. It can be used to design nonlinear pricing plans that achieve competing revenue or water conservation goals, which is crucial for water utilities to manage increasingly uncertain water availability yet still remain financially viable. Knowledge of how these demands differ across customers based on observable household characteristics can allow the utility to reduce the utility-wide revenue or sales risk it faces for any pricing plan. Knowledge of how the structure of demand varies across customers can be used to design personalized (based on observable household demographic characteristics) increasing block price schedules to further reduce the risk the utility faces on a system-wide basis. For the utilities considered, knowledge of the customer-level demographics that predict demand differences across households reduces the uncertainty in the utility's system-wide revenues from 22 to 84 percent. Further reductions in the uncertainty in the utility's system-wide revenues, in the range of 10 to 79 percent, are possible by re-designing the utility's nonlinear price schedules to minimize the revenue risk it faces given the distribution of household-level demand in its service territory. The second chapter, co-authored with Frank again, estimates a model of the household-level demand for electricity services such as lighting, heating and cooling, home appliances, and business use in the Indian state of Rajasthan using a combination of household-level survey data and administrative data. This model incorporates customer-level demographic characteristics, billing cycle-level weather variables, and the fact that households are subject to electricity outages and face increasing block price schedules for their electricity consumption. We estimate two versions of the model that differ in how the relationship between electricity use and consumption of each electricity service is modeled. The first model uses a shape-constrained kernel regression and the second model uses a customer-level constant elasticity of electricity consumption with respect to energy service model. Both energy service demand models produce estimates of the response of each of the above four categories of energy services to changes in the price of each energy service. Both versions of the model also produce estimates of the marginal willingness to pay for an additional hour of each of the four categories of energy services. The mean marginal willingness to pay across customers for an additional hour an energy service is the smallest for lighting and the largest for home appliance services. The third chapter studies whether consumers respond to increasing block tariffs. Although increasing block tariffs have been widely adopted by water and electricity utilities, some previous literature claims that consumers only respond to the average price, rather than the increasing block tariffs or the marginal price. In this chapter, we examine the empirical strategies proposed by previous literature, and test whether they are sufficient to conclude if consumers respond to the increasing block tariffs or other perceived prices. We utilize the household-level demand model in the first chapter that responds to the entire price schedule, including all price tiers and quantity cutoffs. We construct a dataset with consumption data simulated using this model. Applying empirical strategies proposed by previous literature to the simulated dataset fails to identify the underlying demand model, and still concludes that consumers respond to the average price. This suggests that current empirical evidences are not sufficient to exclude that consumers respond to the increasing block tariffs. Further investigations are needed to understand the water/electricity consumption decision.

Essays in Environmental and Energy Economics

Essays in Environmental and Energy Economics
Author: Joshua Blonz
Publisher:
Total Pages: 167
Release: 2005
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation combines research on three topics in applied Energy and Environmental Economics related to the electricity industry. In the first paper, I study the economic welfare impact of an electricity pricing program that increases the price of electricity for small commercial and industrial customers when the cost of generation is high. The second paper explores an energy efficiency retrofit program that provides free upgrades to low-income households in California. Both of these policy interventions were a result of orders from the California Public Utilities Commission, the energy regulator in California. The final paper examines the cost of air quality regulations on employment in the coal mining sector in Appalachia. These three papers study different important aspects of the electricity sector, from upstream regulation of generation to end use pricing and consumption efficiency. In the first chapter, I study how in electricity markets, the price paid by retail customers during periods of peak demand is far below the cost of supply. This leads to overconsumption during peak periods, requiring the construction of excess generation capacity compared to first-best prices that adjust at short time intervals to reflect changing marginal cost. In this paper, I investigate a second-best policy designed to address this distortion, and compare its effectiveness to the first-best. The policy allows the electricity provider to raise retail price by a set amount (usually 3 to 5 times) during the afternoon hours of a limited number of summer days (usually 9 to 15). Using a quasi-experimental research design and high-frequency electricity consumption data, I test the extent to which small commercial and industrial establishments respond to this temporary increase in retail electricity prices. I find that establishments reduce their peak usage by 13.4% during peak hours. Using a model of capacity investment decisions, these reductions yield $154 million in welfare benefits, driven largely by reduced expenditures on power plant construction. I find the current policy provides of the first-best benefits but that, with improvements in targeting just the days with the highest demand, a modified peak pricing program could achieve 80% welfare gains relative to the first-best pricing policy. In the second chapter, I study energy efficiency retrofits programs, which are increasingly being used to both save on energy bills and as a carbon mitigation strategy. This paper evaluates the California Energy Savings Assistance program, which provides no-cost upgrades to low-income households across the state. I use quasi-experimental variation in program uptake to measure energy savings for a large portion of the treated population in the San Diego Gas & Electric service territory between 2007 and 2012. The results suggest that the overall program is ineffective at delivering energy savings and is not cost-effective. One challenge in implementing efficiency retrofit programs is that each upgrade must be customized to the housing unit on which it is installed. As a consequence, there is a wide range in efficiency upgrade potential across the population of candidate households. To better understand this heterogeneity in measure installation and its potential to drive program outcomes, I use discontinuities in program rules to identify key measure specific savings. This analysis shows that larger upgrades such as refrigerator replacements do provide cost-effective savings when considering the full set of social benefits. Households that do not receive larger upgrades generally see little or no savings. These results suggest that heterogeneity in upgrade potential can drive overall program outcomes when only a small portion of the treated population is eligible for cost-effective efficiency upgrades. In the third chapter, I study the costs of Title IV of the Clean Air Act. This regulation put a cap on sulfur emissions from electric power plants, which reduced the demand for high-sulfur coal. Using a quasi-experimental research design, I estimate how coal mine employment and production in high-sulfur coal-producing counties were impacted by the regulation by comparing them to neighboring counties that produced low-sulfur coal. I find that coal production dropped by 20% and coal sector employment dropped by 14%. I find no evidence of spillovers to employment or wages in the non-coal sectors of the high-sulfur coal counties. The results suggest that the coal sector employment costs of Title IV of the Clean Air Act are highly concentrated in the coal industry, and that the decline does not detectably impact the overall regional economy.

Three Essays on Energy Economics

Three Essays on Energy Economics
Author: Louis Demetri Preonas
Publisher:
Total Pages: 367
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

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Electricity powers the modern economy, and the electricity supply chain is notoriously complex. Power plants must develop stable relationships for fuel procurement, as their long-run profitability hinges on securing a cheap, reliable fuel supply. Electric utilities may also lack the incentive to provide a reliable power supply to all potential customers, which could hamper economic productivity. The physical properties of electricity transmission create inherent challenges in providing power to all regions of the grid, while simultaneously incentivizing economically efficient production decisions. In this dissertation, I study three potential market failures in electricity supply: (i) market power in U.S. coal transportation; (ii) under-electrification of India’s rural poor; and (iii) short-run allocative inefficiencies in Indian electricity dispatch. In each case, my findings are of substantial economic importance due the scale of the electric power industry, which is essential to virtually all economic activity. Climate change only raises the stakes, and alleviating electricity market failures has the potential to increase carbon dioxide emissions and further harm the planet. In the first chapter, I investigate how market power in the transportation of coal might impact U.S. climate policies. Economists have widely endorsed pricing CO2 emissions to internalize climate change-related externalities. Doing so would significantly affect coal, which is the most carbon-intensive major energy source. However, U.S. coal markets exhibit an additional distortion, as the railroads that transport coal to power plants can exert market power. This upstream distortion can mute the price signal of a corrective tax, due to changes in markups or incomplete tax pass-through. I provide the first empirical estimates of how coal-by-rail markups respond to changes in coal demand. I find that rail carriers reduce coal markups when downstream power plant demand changes, due to a decrease in the price of natural gas (a competing fuel). I estimate markup changes that vary substantially across coal plants, resulting from a combination of heterogeneous transportation market structure and plant-specific demand shocks. Since low natural gas prices and a CO2 emissions tax similarly disadvantage coal, observed decreases in coal markups imply that pass-through of a federal carbon tax to coal power plants may be heterogeneous and incomplete. This could substantially erode the environmental benefits of a price-based climate policy. My results suggest that decreases in coal markups have increased recent climate damages by $2.3 billion, compared to a counterfactual where markups do not change. In the second chapter, coauthored with Fiona Burlig, we study the impacts of energy access in the developing world. Over 1 billion people still lack electricity access. Developing countries are investing billions of dollars in rural electrification, targeting economic growth and poverty reduction, despite limited empirical evidence. We estimate the effects of rural electrification on economic development in the context of India’s national electrification program, which reached over 400,000 villages. We use a regression discontinuity design and high-resolution geospatial data to identify medium-run economic impacts of electrification. We find a substantial increase in electricity use, but reject effects larger than 0.26 standard deviations across numerous measures of economic development, suggesting that rural electrification may be less beneficial than previously thought. In the third chapter, coauthored with Fiona Burlig and Akshaya Jha, we examine short-run allocative inefficiencies in Indian electricity supply. Electricity consumption is highly correlated with economic development. Understanding and resolving the drivers of economic inefficiencies in electricity markets is critical to supporting economic growth. We quantify the costs of short-run misallocation in Indian electricity supply. We assemble a novel dataset on daily production from each utility-scale power plant in the country and administrative measures of plant-specific marginal operating costs, and calculate the total variable costs of electricity generation in India to be approximately $29 billion per year. We next construct the “least-cost” counterfactual where we dispatch power plants in order of lowest-to-highest marginal cost. We find that this least-cost dispatch results in total annual operating costs that are roughly $4.7 billion lower than observed dispatch. Once we account for transmission constraints, we find a remaining misallocation wedge of $3.2 billion per year. We find evidence that this wedge results from market design and political economy considerations, but find little evidence of market power.

Three Essays on Energy Economics and Forecasting

Three Essays on Energy Economics and Forecasting
Author: Yoon Sung Shin
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation contains three independent essays relating energy economics. The first essay investigates price asymmetry of diesel in South Korea by using the error correction model. Analyzing weekly market prices in the pass-through of crude oil, this model shows asymmetric price response does not exist at the upstream market but at the downstream market. Since time-variant residuals are found by the specified models for both weekly and daily retail prices at the downstream level, these models are implemented by a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process. The estimated results reveal that retail prices increase fast in the rise of crude oil prices but decrease slowly in the fall of those. Surprisingly, retail prices rarely respond to changes of crude oil prices for the first five days. Based on collusive behaviors of retailers, this price asymmetry in Korea diesel market is explained. The second essay aims to evaluate the new incentive system for biodiesel in South Korea, which keeps the blend mandate but abolishes tax credits for government revenues. To estimate changed welfare from the new policy, a multivariate stochastic simulation method is applied into time-series data for the last five years. From the simulation results, the new biodiesel policy will lead government revenues to increases with the abolishment of tax credit. However, increased prices of blended diesel will cause to decrease demands of both biodiesel and blended diesel, so consumer and producer surplus in the transport fuel market will decrease. In the third essay, the Regression - Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (REGSARIMA) model is employed to predict the impact of air temperature on daily peak load demand in Houston. Compared with ARIMA and Seasonal Model, a REGARIMA model provides the more accurate prediction for daily peak load demand for the short term. The estimated results reveal air temperature in the Houston areas causes an increase in electricity consumption for cooling but to save that for heating. Since the daily peak electricity consumption is significantly affected by hot air temperature, this study makes a conclusion that it is necessary to establish policies to reduce urban heat island phenomena in Houston.