Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications

Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications
Author: Luc Bauwens
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 566
Release: 2012-03-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118272056

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A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Volatility Prediction

Volatility Prediction
Author: Harry M. Kat
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2003
Genre:
ISBN:

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Future volatility is a key input for pricing and hedging derivatives and for quantitative investment strategies in general. There are many different approaches. This article investigates whether random walk, GARCH (1,1), EGARCH (1,1) and stochastic volatility models of return volatility behavior differ in their ability to predict the volatility of stock index and currency returns over horizons ranging from 2 to 100 trading days. We use close-to-close return data for 7 indices and 5 currencies over the period 1980-1992. The results show that the forecast performance of the different models depends on the specific asset class in question. For stock indices the best volatility predictions are generated by the stochastic volatility model. For currencies on the other hand, the best forecasts come from the GARCH (1,1) model.

EGARCH and Stochastic Volatility

EGARCH and Stochastic Volatility
Author: Jouchi Nakajima
Publisher:
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2008
Genre: Stochastic processes
ISBN:

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"This paper proposes the EGARCH [Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity] model with jumps and heavy-tailed errors, and studies the empirical performance of different models including the stochastic volatility models with leverage, jumps and heavy-tailed errors for daily stock returns. In the framework of a Bayesian inference, the Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods for these models are illustrated with a simulation study. The model comparison based on the marginal likelihood estimation is provided with data on the U.S. stock index."--Author's abstract.

Modeling Stock Volatility with Stochastic ARCH, GARCH and Stochastic Volatility Model

Modeling Stock Volatility with Stochastic ARCH, GARCH and Stochastic Volatility Model
Author: Chang Sun (M.S. in Statistics)
Publisher:
Total Pages: 96
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

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Modeling volatility within the log stock return is key to the stock price prediction. Despite numerous researches that modeled the volatility with conditional heavy-tailed error distributions, the unconditional distribution remains unknown. In this report, we use and follow the method introduced by Pitt and Walker (2005) by assigning a Student-t distribution for the marginal density of log return and constructing three models respectively, with similar structures to Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH), Generalized ARCH (GARCH) and Stochastic Volatility model in a Bayesian way. We demonstrate the capability of the three models for stock price prediction with S&P 500 index and show that all our models outperform the standard GARCH model (Bollerslev, 1986).

Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics

Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics
Author: Robert A. Meyers
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 919
Release: 2010-11-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1441977007

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Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.

Stochastic Volatility

Stochastic Volatility
Author: Neil Shephard
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 534
Release: 2005
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0199257205

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Stochastic volatility is the main concept used in the fields of financial economics and mathematical finance to deal with time-varying volatility in financial markets. This work brings together some of the main papers that have influenced this field, andshows that the development of this subject has been highly multidisciplinary.

A Closer Look at the Relation between GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility

A Closer Look at the Relation between GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility
Author: Jeff Fleming
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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We show that, for three common SARV models, fitting a minimum mean square linear filter is equivalent to fitting a GARCH model. This suggests that GARCH models may be useful for filtering, forecasting, and parameter estimation in stochastic volatility settings. To investigate, we use simulations to evaluate how the three SARV models and their associated GARCH filters perform under controlled conditions and then we use daily currency and equity index returns to evaluate how the models perform in a risk management application. Although the GARCH models produce less precise forecasts than the SARV models in the simulations, it is not clear that the performance differences are large enough to be economically meaningful. Consistent with this view, we find that the GARCH and SARV models perform comparably in tests of conditional value-at-risk estimates using the actual data.

Deciding between GARCH and Stochastic Volatility Via Strong Decision Rules

Deciding between GARCH and Stochastic Volatility Via Strong Decision Rules
Author: Arie Preminger
Publisher:
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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The GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) models are two competing, well-known and often used models to explain the volatility of financial series. In this paper, we consider a closed form estimator for a stochastic volatility model and derive its asymptotic properties. We confirm our theoretical results by a simulation study. In addition, we propose a set of simple, strongly consistent decision rules to compare the ability of the GARCH and the SV model to fit the characteristic features observed in high frequency financial data such as high kurtosis and slowly decaying autocorrelation function of the squared observations. These rules are based on a number of moment conditions that is allowed to increase with sample size. We show that our selection procedure leads to choosing the best and simple model with probability one as the sample size increases. The finite sample size behaviour of our procedure is analyzed via simulations. Finally, we provide an application to stocks in the Dow Jones industrial average index.

A Simple Test for GARCH Against a Stochastic Volatility Model

A Simple Test for GARCH Against a Stochastic Volatility Model
Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

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GARCH models and Stochastic Volatility (SV) models can both be used to describe unobserved volatility in asset returns. We consider the issue of testing a GARCH model against an SV model. For that purpose, we propose a new and parsimonious GARCH-t model with an additional restricted moving average term, which can capture SV model properties. We discuss model representation, parameter estimation, and our simple test for model selection. Furthermore, we derive the theoretical moments and the autocorrelation function of our new model. We illustrate our model and test for nine daily stock-return series.