Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models

Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models
Author: Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2018-05-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484355660

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Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price changes. We document the presence of stock market returns’ asymmetric reactions in some GCC countries, but not for others. In Kuwait’s case, negative oil price changes exert larger impacts on stock returns than positive oil price changes. When considering the asymmetry with respect to the magnitude of oil price variation, we find that Oman’s and Qatar’s stock markets are more sensitive to large oil price changes than to small ones. Our results highlight the importance of economic stabilization and reform policies that can potentially reduce the sensitivity of stock returns to oil price changes, especially with regard to the existence of asymmetric behavior.

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy
Author: Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2015-12-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513513885

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This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S. supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market oil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S. oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by 0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters.

Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Oil Prices and the Global Economy
Author: Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 28
Release: 2016-11-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148431512X

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The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower interest rates and inflation in most countries, and increase global real equity prices. The effects on real output are positive, although they take longer to materialize (around four quarters after the shock). We then re-examine the effects of low oil prices on the U.S. economy over different sub-periods using monthly observations on real oil prices, real equity prices and real dividends. We confirm the perverse positive relationship between oil and equity prices over the period since the 2008 financial crisis highlighted in the recent literature, but show that this relationship has been unstable when considered over the longer time period of 1946–2016. In contrast, we find a stable negative relationship between oil prices and real dividends which we argue is a better proxy for economic activity (as compared to equity prices). On the supply side, the effects of lower oil prices differ widely across the different oil producers, and could be perverse initially, as some of the major oil producers try to compensate their loss of revenues by raising production. Taking demand and supply adjustments to oil price changes as a whole, we conclude that oil markets equilibrate but rather slowly, with large episodic swings between low and high oil prices.

Gulf Cooperation Council

Gulf Cooperation Council
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 53
Release: 2022-11-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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GCC policymakers have managed to quickly mitigate the economic impact of the twin COVID-19 and oil price shock. Commodity prices have surged, and the outlook is more positive for GCC countries, with new challenges linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tighter global financial conditions expected to have a limited impact on GCC economies. While GCC countries have overall benefited from higher, albeit volatile hydrocarbon prices, numerous risks still cloud the outlook—notably a slowdown in the global economy. In this context, the reform momentum established during the low oil price years should be maintained—irrespective of the level of hydrocarbon prices.

Oil Price and Stock Market Index, the Case of GCC Countries

Oil Price and Stock Market Index, the Case of GCC Countries
Author: Mazen Mardini
Publisher:
Total Pages: 88
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

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This research investigates the existence long-run relationships between oil prices and stock market indices in five GCC country implementing panel co-integration techniques and Seemingly Unrelated regression (SUR) methods, using two different (weekly and monthly) datasets covering respectively the periods from 3 June 2005 to 18 November 2011 and from August 2004 to October 2011. The investigation shows that there is evidence for Co-integration of oil prices and stock markets in our two (weekly and monthly) datasets. while the SUR results indicate on a weekly basis, we found that oil price increases have a positive impact on stock prices of Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, and have a negative impact on stock prices of Bahrain and UAE whereas, on monthly basis we found that oil price increases have a positive impact on stock prices of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, and have a negative impact on stock prices of UAE.

Food and Fuel Prices-Recent Developments, Macroeconomic Impact, and Policy Responses—An Update

Food and Fuel Prices-Recent Developments, Macroeconomic Impact, and Policy Responses—An Update
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2008-09-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 149833413X

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This report updates the macroeconomic assessment of the impact of global food and fuel price increases provided in the IMF June 2008 Board paper: Food and Fuel Prices—Recent Developments, Macroeconomic Impact, and Policy Response. Food and oil prices peaked in early summer—in particular, oil prices surged to levels envisaged under the most adverse scenario presented in the June paper. Against this background, the effects of higher prices on the balance of payments, budgets, and domestic prices intensified and a large group of low- and middle-income countries is experiencing a substantial weakening of their balance of payments and higher inflation. These findings reinforce the importance of adopting appropriate policies to maintain macroeconomic stability while protecting the poor.

Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK

Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 66
Release: 2019-10-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 151351718X

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We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.

Dynamic Linkages and Volatility Spillover

Dynamic Linkages and Volatility Spillover
Author: Bhaskar Bagchi
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 225
Release: 2016-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1786355531

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This book examines the dynamic relationship and volatility spillovers between crude oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets of emerging economies. Unfortunately very little research has been conducted to analyze the volatility spillovers and dynamic relationship between crude oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets of India.