Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models in a Liquidity Trap and Self-Organizing State Space Modeling

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models in a Liquidity Trap and Self-Organizing State Space Modeling
Author: Koiti Yano
Publisher:
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper proposes a novel approach to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models in a liquidity trap. Our approach is based on the Monte Carlo particle filter and a self-organizing state space model. The main feature of this paper is that we estimate most parameters of DSGE models using the time-varying-parameter approach, which is often used to infer invariant parameters in practice. Adopting our method creates the great advantage that the structural changes of parameters are detected naturally. Therefore, our method is a framework to investigate how stable structural parameters are. Moreover, it is a great contribution that natural rates of macroeconomic data, parameters, and unknown states are estimated simultaneously. The estimates of natural rates, thus, are consistent with DSGE models. In empirical analysis, we estimate new Keynesian DSGE models in a liquidity trap using Japanese macroeconomic data, which includes the quot;zero-interest-ratequot; period (1999-2006). The analysis shows that the target rate of in inflation is too low in the 1990s and the 2000s, and it causes deflation in the Japanese economy.

Differentiable State-Space Models and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Estimation

Differentiable State-Space Models and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Estimation
Author: David Childers
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

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We propose a methodology to take dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models to the data based on the combination of differentiable state-space models and the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler. First, we introduce a method for implicit automatic differentiation of perturbation solutions of DSGE models with respect to the model's parameters. We can use the resulting output for various tasks requiring gradients, such as building an HMC sampler, to estimate first- and second-order approximations of DSGE models. The availability of derivatives also enables a general filter-free method to estimate nonlinear, non-Gaussian DSGE models by sampling the joint likelihood of parameters and latent states. We show that the gradient-based joint likelihood sampling approach is superior in efficiency and robustness to standard Metropolis-Hastings samplers by estimating a canonical real business cycle model, a real small open economy model, and a medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model.

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Modelling

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Modelling
Author: Bo Yang
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Total Pages: 280
Release: 2011-09-01
Genre:
ISBN: 9783845431017

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Recent episodes of financial turmoil have highlighted the need to understand how large external shocks are propagated in small open economies. This is particularly relevant in emerging economies, since these economies face additional vulnerabilities that make them very different from advanced economies. Indeed, they usually display weak fiscal, monetary and financial institutional frameworks, and have imperfect access to capital markets. This book studies Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelling and empirical applications to developed/developing economies. It consists of four self-contained chapters. Chapter 1 sets out a benchmark model with persistence mechanisms and reviews the underlying estimation/validation methods. Chapter 2 studies the relevance of direct supply side effects of monetary policy by introducing the presence of a cost channel of monetary transmission and allowing for non-separability of money and consumption in the household's utility. Chapters 3 and 4 model dollarization, as well as financial frictions including a 'financial accelerator', where capital financing is partly or totally in foreign currency as in Gertler et al. (2003) and Gilchrist (2003).

Two Essays on Maximum Likelihood Estimations of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models

Two Essays on Maximum Likelihood Estimations of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models
Author: Gulnur Kozak
Publisher:
Total Pages: 155
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

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This dissertation consists of two essays on maximum likelihood estimation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The first essay focuses on a monetary DSGE model of term structure, while the second essay explores and compares three different versions of New Keynesian DSGE models. In Chapter 1, a general background is given for the DSGE models, and their estimation techniques along with a review of the term structure models and New Keynesian models. The first essay, which is a joint work with Hwagyun Kim, empirically evaluates the relationships between money, inflation, output growth, and the interest rates of different maturities using a monetary DSGE model of term structure, featuring inflation targeting behavior, asset market segmentation, and external habit extended for nominal economy. This model can generate liquidity effect, average upward sloping yield curve, and time-varying bond risk premia for bearing inflation and real shocks. By exploiting the term structure equations derived from the model, the deep parameters of the model describing risk preference, inflation targeting behavior, and market segmentation between bond traders and non-traders are estimated. The model is estimated under alternative specifications: latent factors; macroeconomic factors; and both latent and macroeconomic factors. The empirical findings show that all the methods give consistent estimates of the parameters, and conclude that asset market segmentation, inflation targeting, and time-varying risk aversion are significant to account for the term structure dynamics. They also suggest that monetary factors and monetary policy are important to understand both short-run and long-run behaviors of bond prices. In the second essay, three different versions of New Keynesian DSGE models are developed, and their structural parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation. Specifically, the role of velocity of money on the dynamics of real variables is empirically examined by constructing a money in the utility model and two special cases of transactions cost model. Wealth effects, previously ignored in many transactions cost models, are taken into consideration in one of the cases examined here, and comparisons are made between the transactions cost model that includes the wealth effects and the transactions cost model that ignores the wealth effects entirely. The equivalence of money in the utility model and transactions cost model with wealth effects is also quantitatively examined. The results show that there is no evidence of quantitative equivalence between these two models. Although the magnitude of impulse responses are different among the models studied here, all three models give consistent estimates for the structural parameters. The empirical findings from the maximum likelihood estimates of all three models' parameters also suggest that the velocity of money is a very important part of the IS and Phillips curves of all three models developed here, and should be included in IS and Phillips curves when examining the inflation and output dynamics.

Causal Discovery of Macroeconomic State-Space Models

Causal Discovery of Macroeconomic State-Space Models
Author: Emmet Wayne Hall-Hoffarth
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper presents a set of tests and an algorithm for agnostic, data-driven selection among macroeconomic Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models inspired by structure learning methods for Directed Acyclical Graphs (DAGs). As the log-linear state-space solution to any DSGE model is also a DAG it is possible to use associated concepts to identify a unique ground-truth state-space model which is compatible with an underlying DGP, based on the conditional independence relationships which are present in that DGP. In order to operationalise search for this ground-truth model, the algorithm tests feasible analogues of these conditional independence criteria against the set of combinatorially possible state-space models over observed variables. This process is consistent in large samples. In small samples the result may not be unique, so conditional independence tests can be combined with likelihood maximisation in order to select a single optimal model. The efficacy of this algorithm is demonstrated for simulated data, and results for real data are also provided and discussed.

Solution Strategies of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Models

Solution Strategies of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Models
Author: Dr Walid Y Alali
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre:
ISBN:

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DSGE models are the main tool for analysing various questions in problems of monetary, business cycle theory and fiscal policy problems, growth and other fields in international macroeconomics and macroeconomics. Many macroeconomic publications use the DSGE framework. A consensus has been reached on the methodology for using such kind of model. The resolution of DSGE models remains an area of ongoing interest. This paper provides an overview of the available solution techniques. Linear approximation methods and perturbation methods have been explored in detail. Solving strategies such as the eigenvalue auto-decomposition of Blanchard and Kahn (1980) or the method of indefinite coefficients are explained. A Bayesian estimate is drawn shortly. The evaluation methods are briefly described. Finally, the paper provides some useful resources for practical implementation.