Decrypting New Age International Capital Flows

Decrypting New Age International Capital Flows
Author: Clemens Graf von Luckner
Publisher:
Total Pages: 58
Release:
Genre: Capital movements
ISBN:

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This paper employs high frequency transactions data on the world's oldest and most extensive centralized peer-to-peer Bitcoin market, which enables trade in the currencies of more than 135 countries. We develop an algorithm that allows, with high probability, the detection of "crypto vehicle transactions" in which crypto currency is used to move capital across borders or facilitate domestic transactions. In contrast to previous work which has used "on-chain" data, our approach enables one to investigate parts of the vastly larger pool of "off-chain" transactions. We find that, as a conservative lower bound, over 7 percent of the 45 million trades on the exchange we explore represent crypto vehicle transactions in which Bitcoin is used to make payment in fiat currency. Roughly 20 percent of these represent international capital flight/flows/remittances. Although our work cannot be used to put a price on cryptocurrencies, it provides the first systematic quantitative evidence that the transactional use of cryptocurrencies constitutes a fundamental component of their value, at least under the current regulatory regime.

Crypto as a Marketplace for Capital Flight

Crypto as a Marketplace for Capital Flight
Author: Clemens M. Graf von Luckner
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2024-06-28
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper shows how cryptocurrency markets can fuel cross-border capital flight by serving as marketplaces that match counterparts with and without (illicit) access to FX. In countries where international transactions are restricted, crypto exchanges effectively allow domestic agents to pay a premium to buy foreign currency. The counterparts to these transactions are agents with access to FX, who sell crypto holdings purchased abroad. A stylized model illustrates that restricted foreign currency amid economic imbalances incentivizes these transactions via persistent crypto premia in local relative to global markets. We analyze relative crypto pricing data in several country case studies, providing empirical support that crypto markets serve as marketplaces for capital flight that already took place, rather than a novel channel for capital flight. We make available a novel dataset on crypto market premia, which we propose as indicators of excess demand for foreign currency and capital control intensity. The dataset will be posted along with this paper and updated periodically.

Macro-Financial Implications of Foreign Crypto Assets for Small Developing Economies

Macro-Financial Implications of Foreign Crypto Assets for Small Developing Economies
Author: Alexander Copestake
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2023-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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To explore risks associated with digital money, this Fintech Note simulates the hypothetical large-scale adoption of crypto assets in a model of a small open economy. The model highlights that a foreign-currency denominated stablecoin can amplify currency substitution and capital outflows in response to negative shocks. Monetary policy transmission is also weakened, forcing the central bank to adjust interest rates more aggressively in response to shocks. Capital flow management measures—if they do not constrain crypto flows—further incentivize households to hold foreign stablecoins for circumvention purposes, exacerbating the negative effects of crypto adoption on the macroeconomy. This underscores that widespread crypto adoption can weaken policymakers’ available options for mitigating external shocks and potentially increase cross-country spillovers.

Macro-Financial Impacts of Foreign Digital Money

Macro-Financial Impacts of Foreign Digital Money
Author: Anh Le
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 62
Release: 2023-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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We develop a two-country New Keynesian model with endogenous currency substitution and financial frictions to examine the impact on a small developing economy of a stablecoin issued in a large foreign economy. The stablecoin provides households in the domestic economy with liquidity services and an additional hedge against domestic inflation. Its introduction amplifies currency substitution, reducing bank intermediation and weakening monetary policy transmission, worsening the impacts of recessionary shocks and increasing banking sector stress. Capital controls raise stablecoin adoption as a means of circumvention, increasing exposure to spillovers from foreign shocks. Unlike a domestic CBDC, a ban on stablecoin payments can alleviate these effects.

International Capital Flows

International Capital Flows
Author: Martin Feldstein
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 500
Release: 2007-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226241807

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Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.

Crypto, Corruption, and Capital Controls: Cross-Country Correlations

Crypto, Corruption, and Capital Controls: Cross-Country Correlations
Author: Ms. Marwa Alnasaa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 19
Release: 2022-03-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Empirical investigation of the factors underlying the growing usage of crypto-assets is in its infancy, owing to data limitations. In this paper, we present a simple cross-country analysis drawing on recently released survey-based data. We explore the correlation of crypto-asset usage with indicators of corruption, capital controls, a history of high inflation, and other factors. We find that crypto-asset usage is significantly and positively associated with higher perception of corruption and more intensive capital controls. Notwithstanding the data limitations, the results support the case for regulating crypto-assets, including know-your-customer approaches, as opposed to taking a laissez-faire stance.

Digital Assets and the Law

Digital Assets and the Law
Author: Filippo Zatti
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Total Pages: 265
Release: 2024-02-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1003853323

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This book delves into the intricacies of digital assets. With the increasing reliance on crypto and the potential adoption of digital currencies by central banks, our monetary system is at a critical point. The importance of taking the next step has become even more stringent, as evidenced by this systematic scientific reconstruction. Divided into five concentric parts, the book starts with a historical, technical and financial introduction to digital assets. It then explores the changing role of central banking and monetary economics in the upcoming era. Finally, it focuses on the broad legal issues arising from the new digital landscape, not shying away from exploring forward-thinking solutions and policies for the future. With the contributions of prominent international experts in the field, this collection supplies a transdisciplinary analysis based on the belief that complex phenomena can only be handled by complex solutions. This groundbreaking work aims to be more than just an academic treatise; it is a must-read for students, scholars, financial professionals, and all those who want to understand the emerging digital currency reality that many have yet to fully recognise.

Assessing Macrofinancial Risks from Crypto Assets

Assessing Macrofinancial Risks from Crypto Assets
Author: Ms. Burcu Hacibedel
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2023-09-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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Failures in the crypto space—including the fall of Terra USD and the FTX debacle—have sparked calls for strengthening countries’ policy frameworks for crypto assets, including by enhanced regulation and supervision. How have these heightened concerns about crypto assets been picked up in systemic risk assessment, and what can be done going forward? In this paper, we introduce a conceptual macrofinancial framework to understand and track systemic risks stemming from crypto assets. Specifically, we propose a country-level Crypto-Risk Assessment Matrix (C-RAM) to summarize the main vulnerabilities, useful indicators, potential triggers and potential policy responses related to the crypto sector. We also discuss how experts and officials can weave in specific vulnerabilities stemming from crypto asset activity into their assessment of systemic risk, and how they can provide policy advice and take action to help contain systemic risks when needed.

Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2023 Reviving Tourism Post-Pandemic

Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2023 Reviving Tourism Post-Pandemic
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Total Pages: 264
Release: 2023-03-31
Genre:
ISBN: 9264782125

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The 2023 edition discusses the region’s economic outlook and macroeconomic challenges at a time of great uncertainty and a slowdown of the global economy, in particular owing to inflationary pressures, capital flow volatility and supply-side bottlenecks. The thematic chapters focus on reviving tourism after the pandemic.

Can Blockchain Revolutionize International Trade?

Can Blockchain Revolutionize International Trade?
Author: Emmanuelle Ganne
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2018
Genre: Blockchains (Databases)
ISBN: 9789287047618

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Trade has always been shaped by technological innovation. In recent times, a new technology, Blockchain, has been greeted by many as the next big game-changer. Can Blockchain revolutionize international trade? This publication seeks to demystify the Blockchain phenomenon by providing a basic explanation of the technology. It analyses the relevance of this technology for international trade by reviewing how it is currently used or can be used in the various areas covered by WTO rules. In doing so, it provides an insight into the extent to which this technology could affect cross-border trade in goods and services, and intellectual property rights. It discusses the potential of Blockchain for reducing trade costs and enhancing supply chain transparency as well as the opportunities it provides for small-scale producers and companies. Finally, it reviews various challenges that must be addressed before the technology can be used on a wide scale and have a significant impact on international trade.