Cyclical Analysis of Time Series

Cyclical Analysis of Time Series
Author: Gerhard Bry
Publisher:
Total Pages: 242
Release: 1971
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN:

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Study of programmed procedures in economic research and statistical method with regard to computerised analysis of cyclical turning points relative to business cycles. References.

Modelling Trends and Cycles in Economic Time Series

Modelling Trends and Cycles in Economic Time Series
Author: Terence C. Mills
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 219
Release: 2021-07-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030763595

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Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series has a long history, with the use of linear trends and moving averages forming the basic tool kit of economists until the 1970s. Several developments in econometrics then led to an overhaul of the techniques used to extract trends and cycles from time series. In this second edition, Terence Mills expands on the research in the area of trends and cycles over the last (almost) two decades, to highlight to students and researchers the variety of techniques and the considerations that underpin their choice for modelling trends and cycles.

Measuring Business Cycles in Economic Time Series

Measuring Business Cycles in Economic Time Series
Author: Regina Kaiser
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 198
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1461301297

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This book outlines and demonstrates problems with the use of the HP filter, and proposes an alternative strategy for inferring cyclical behavior from a time series featuring seasonal, trend, cyclical and noise components. The main innovation of the alternative strategy involves augmenting the series forecasts and back-casts obtained from an ARIMA model, and then applying the HP filter to the augmented series. Comparisons presented using artificial and actual data demonstrate the superiority of the alternative strategy.

Time-Series Analysis and Cyclostratigraphy

Time-Series Analysis and Cyclostratigraphy
Author: Graham P. Weedon
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 275
Release: 2005-09-15
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1139435175

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Increasingly environmental scientists, palaeoceanographers and geologists are collecting quantitative records of environmental changes (time-series) from sediments, ice cores, cave calcite, corals and trees. This book explains how to analyse these records, using straightforward explanations and diagrams rather than formal mathematical derivations. All the main cyclostratigraphic methods are covered including spectral analysis, cross-spectral analysis, filtering, complex demodulation, wavelet and singular spectrum analysis. Practical problems of time-series analysis, including those of distortions of environmental signals during stratigraphic encoding, are considered in detail. Recent research into various types of tidal and climatic cycles is summarised. The book ends with an extensive reference section, and an appendix listing sources of computer algorithms. This book provides the ideal reference for all those using time-series analysis to study the nature and history of climatic and tidal cycles. It is suitable for senior undergraduate and graduate courses in environmental science, palaeoceanography and geology.

The Analysis of Economic Time Series

The Analysis of Economic Time Series
Author: Harold Thayer Davis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 648
Release: 1941
Genre: Economics, Mathematical
ISBN:

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Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation

Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation
Author: Estela Bee Dagum
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 293
Release: 2016-06-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319318225

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This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportation, and consumers in general to decide on appropriate action. This book appeals to practitioners in government institutions, finance and business, macroeconomists, and other professionals who use economic data as well as academic researchers in time series analysis, seasonal adjustment methods, filtering and signal extraction. It is also useful for graduate and final-year undergraduate courses in econometrics and time series with a good understanding of linear regression and matrix algebra, as well as ARIMA modelling.

Spectral Analysis of Time-series Data

Spectral Analysis of Time-series Data
Author: Rebecca M. Warner
Publisher: Guilford Press
Total Pages: 244
Release: 1998-05-22
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 9781572303386

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This book provides a thorough introduction to methods for detecting and describing cyclic patterns in time-series data. It is written both for researchers and students new to the area and for those who have already collected time-series data but wish to learn new ways of understanding and presenting them. Facilitating the interpretation of observations of behavior, physiology, mood, perceptual threshold, social indicator variables, and other responses, the book focuses on practical applications and requires much less mathematical background than most comparable texts. Using real data sets and currently available software (SPSS for Windows), the author employs extensive examples to clarify key concepts. Topics covered include research design issues, preliminary data screening, identification and description of cycles, summary of results across time series, and assessment of relations between time series. Also considered are theoretical questions, problems of interpretation, and potential sources of artifact.

Forecasting: principles and practice

Forecasting: principles and practice
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
Total Pages: 380
Release: 2018-05-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0987507117

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Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series. (PSME-1)

Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series. (PSME-1)
Author: Clive William John Granger
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 318
Release: 2015-12-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400875528

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The important data of economics are in the form of time series; therefore, the statistical methods used will have to be those designed for time series data. New methods for analyzing series containing no trends have been developed by communication engineering, and much recent research has been devoted to adapting and extending these methods so that they will be suitable for use with economic series. This book presents the important results of this research and further advances the application of the recently developed Theory of Spectra to economics. In particular, Professor Hatanaka demonstrates the new technique in treating two problems-business cycle indicators, and the acceleration principle existing in department store data. Originally published in 1964. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.