Crypto as a Marketplace for Capital Flight

Crypto as a Marketplace for Capital Flight
Author: Clemens M. Graf von Luckner
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 42
Release: 2024-06-28
Genre:
ISBN:

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This paper shows how cryptocurrency markets can fuel cross-border capital flight by serving as marketplaces that match counterparts with and without (illicit) access to FX. In countries where international transactions are restricted, crypto exchanges effectively allow domestic agents to pay a premium to buy foreign currency. The counterparts to these transactions are agents with access to FX, who sell crypto holdings purchased abroad. A stylized model illustrates that restricted foreign currency amid economic imbalances incentivizes these transactions via persistent crypto premia in local relative to global markets. We analyze relative crypto pricing data in several country case studies, providing empirical support that crypto markets serve as marketplaces for capital flight that already took place, rather than a novel channel for capital flight. We make available a novel dataset on crypto market premia, which we propose as indicators of excess demand for foreign currency and capital control intensity. The dataset will be posted along with this paper and updated periodically.

Macro-Financial Implications of Foreign Crypto Assets for Small Developing Economies

Macro-Financial Implications of Foreign Crypto Assets for Small Developing Economies
Author: Alexander Copestake
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2023-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

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To explore risks associated with digital money, this Fintech Note simulates the hypothetical large-scale adoption of crypto assets in a model of a small open economy. The model highlights that a foreign-currency denominated stablecoin can amplify currency substitution and capital outflows in response to negative shocks. Monetary policy transmission is also weakened, forcing the central bank to adjust interest rates more aggressively in response to shocks. Capital flow management measures—if they do not constrain crypto flows—further incentivize households to hold foreign stablecoins for circumvention purposes, exacerbating the negative effects of crypto adoption on the macroeconomy. This underscores that widespread crypto adoption can weaken policymakers’ available options for mitigating external shocks and potentially increase cross-country spillovers.

Decrypting New Age International Capital Flows

Decrypting New Age International Capital Flows
Author: Clemens Graf von Luckner
Publisher:
Total Pages: 58
Release:
Genre: Capital movements
ISBN:

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This paper employs high frequency transactions data on the world's oldest and most extensive centralized peer-to-peer Bitcoin market, which enables trade in the currencies of more than 135 countries. We develop an algorithm that allows, with high probability, the detection of "crypto vehicle transactions" in which crypto currency is used to move capital across borders or facilitate domestic transactions. In contrast to previous work which has used "on-chain" data, our approach enables one to investigate parts of the vastly larger pool of "off-chain" transactions. We find that, as a conservative lower bound, over 7 percent of the 45 million trades on the exchange we explore represent crypto vehicle transactions in which Bitcoin is used to make payment in fiat currency. Roughly 20 percent of these represent international capital flight/flows/remittances. Although our work cannot be used to put a price on cryptocurrencies, it provides the first systematic quantitative evidence that the transactional use of cryptocurrencies constitutes a fundamental component of their value, at least under the current regulatory regime.

Cryptocurrency and State Sovereignty - Comprehensive Review of Bitcoin, Blockchain, and Virtual Currency Technology, Hash Functions, Merkle Trees, and

Cryptocurrency and State Sovereignty - Comprehensive Review of Bitcoin, Blockchain, and Virtual Currency Technology, Hash Functions, Merkle Trees, and
Author: U. S. Military
Publisher: Independently Published
Total Pages: 104
Release: 2018-09-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781720107545

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Since Bitcoin's release in late 2008, the cryptocurrency has grown and proven itself as a disruptive technology, resistant to sovereign law and international financial regulations, and an alternative to the sovereign state's concept of fiat money. The Wild West nature of cryptocurrency has enabled a number of individuals, criminal organizations, terrorist groups, and sovereign states to use Bitcoin, among other cryptocurrencies, to avoid detection, interference, or punishment from regulatory agencies to commit actions such as money laundering, trafficking narcotics, purchasing weapons, and bypassing international sanctions. This study addresses the disruptive nature of cryptocurrency by asking what legislative options are available to sovereign states to maximize the effectiveness of sovereign laws while limiting undesired cryptocurrency use. To tackle this question, this study breaks down the legislative actions countries may take into three categories

Alternative Assets and Cryptocurrencies

Alternative Assets and Cryptocurrencies
Author: Christian Hafner
Publisher: MDPI
Total Pages: 218
Release: 2019-07-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3038979783

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Alternative assets such as fine art, wine, or diamonds have become popular investment vehicles in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Correlation with classical financial markets is typically low, such that diversification benefits arise for portfolio allocation and risk management. Cryptocurrencies share many alternative asset features, but are hampered by high volatility, sluggish commercial acceptance, and regulatory uncertainties. This collection of papers addresses alternative assets and cryptocurrencies from economic, financial, statistical, and technical points of view. It gives an overview of their current state and explores their properties and prospects using innovative approaches and methodologies.

The Future of Finance

The Future of Finance
Author: Henri Arslanian
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 318
Release: 2019-07-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030145336

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This book, written jointly by an engineer and artificial intelligence expert along with a lawyer and banker, is a glimpse on what the future of the financial services will look like and the impact it will have on society. The first half of the book provides a detailed yet easy to understand educational and technical overview of FinTech, artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies including the existing industry pain points and the new technological enablers. The second half provides a practical, concise and engaging overview of their latest trends and their impact on the future of the financial services industry including numerous use cases and practical examples. The book is a must read for any professional currently working in finance, any student studying the topic or anyone curious on how the future of finance will look like.

Bitcoin and Beyond

Bitcoin and Beyond
Author: Malcolm Campbell-Verduyn
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 339
Release: 2017-11-28
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1351814079

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Since the launch of Bitcoin in 2009 several hundred different ‘cryptocurrencies’ have been developed and become accepted for a wide variety of transactions in leading online commercial marketplaces and the ‘sharing economy’, as well as by more traditional retailers, manufacturers, and even by charities and political parties. Bitcoin and its competitors have also garnered attention for their wildly fluctuating values as well as implication in international money laundering, Ponzi schemes and online trade in illicit goods and services across borders. These and other controversies surrounding cryptocurrencies have induced varying governance responses by central banks, government ministries, international organizations, and industry regulators worldwide. Besides formal attempts to ban Bitcoin, there have been multifaceted efforts to incorporate elements of blockchains, the peer-to-peer technology underlying cryptocurrencies, in the wider exchange, recording, and broadcasting of digital transactions. Blockchains are being mobilized to support and extend an array of governance activities. The novelty and breadth of growing blockchain-based activities have fuelled both utopian promises and dystopian fears regarding applications of the emergent technology to Bitcoin and beyond. This volume brings scholars of anthropology, economics, Science and Technology Studies, and sociology together with GPE scholars in assessing the actual implications posed by Bitcoin and blockchains for contemporary global governance. Its interdisciplinary contributions provide academics, policymakers, industry practitioners and the general public with more nuanced understandings of technological change in the changing character of governance within and across the borders of nation-states.

The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency

The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency
Author: Mr.Dennis P. J. Botman
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 21
Release: 2013-11-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475513429

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During risk-off episodes, the yen is a safe haven currency and on average appreciates against the U.S. dollar. We investigate the proximate causes of yen risk-off appreciations. We find that neither capital inflows nor expectations of the future monetary policy stance can explain the yen’s safe haven behavior. In contrast, we find evidence that changes in market participants’ risk perceptions trigger derivatives trading, which in turn lead to changes in the spot exchange rate without capital flows. Specifically, we find that risk-off episodes coincide with forward hedging and reduced net short positions or a buildup of net long positions in yen. These empirical findings suggest that offshore and complex financial transactions should be part of spillover analyses and that the effectiveness of capital flow management measures or monetary policy coordination to address excessive exchange rate volatility might be limited in certain cases.

People's Republic of China

People's Republic of China
Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 77
Release: 2017-08-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484314727

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This Selected Issues paper examines the drivers and prospects for high levels of savings in China. China has one of the highest levels of national savings in the world, which is at the heart of its external and internal imbalances. High and rising household savings have mainly resulted from demographic changes as a result of the one-child policy and the breakdown of the social safety net during the transition from a planned to a market economy. Demographic changes will put downward pressure on national savings. Policy efforts to strengthen the social safety net and reduce income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and faster and to boost consumption.