Misalignment of Exchange Rates

Misalignment of Exchange Rates
Author: Richard C. Marston
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 332
Release: 2008-04-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226507254

Download Misalignment of Exchange Rates Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Economists writing on flexible exchange rates in the 1960s foresaw neither the magnitude nor the persistence of the changes in real exchange rates that have occurred in the last fifteen years. Unexpectedly large movements in relative prices have lead to sharp changes in exports and imports, disrupting normal trading relations and causing shifts in employment and output. Many of the largest changes are not equilibrium adjustments to real disturbances but represent instead sustained departures from long-run equilibrium levels, with real exchange rates remaining "misaligned" for years at a time. Contributors to Misalignment of Exchange Rates address a series of questions about misalignment. Several papers investigate the causes of misalignment and the extent to which observed movements in real exchange rates can be attributed to misalignment. These studies are conducted both empirically, through the experiences of the United States, Great Britain, Japan, and the countries of the European Monetary System, and theoretically, through models of imperfect competition. Attention is then turned to the effects of misalignment, especially on employment and production, and to detailed estimates of the effects of changes in exchange rates on several industries, including the U.S. auto industry. In response to the contention that there is significant "hysteresis" in the adjustment of employment and production to changes in exchange rates, contributors also attempt to determine whether the effects of misalignment can be reversed once exchange rates return to earlier levels. Finally, the issue of how to avoid—or at least control—misalignment through macroeconomic policy is confronted.

Correcting Real Exchange Rate Misalignment

Correcting Real Exchange Rate Misalignment
Author: Maya Eden
Publisher:
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Correcting Real Exchange Rate Misalignment Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper studies the issue of real exchange rate misalignment and the difficulties in settling international real exchange rate disputes. The authors show theoretically that determining when a country should be sanctioned for real exchange rate "manipulations" is difficult: in some situations a country's real exchange rate targeting can be beneficial to other countries, while in others it is not. Regardless, it is difficult to establish whether a misaligned real exchange rate is intentionally manipulated rather than unintentionally caused by other policies or by various distortions in the economy. The paper continues by illustrating the difficulty in measuring real exchange rate misalignment, and provides a critical assessment of existing methodologies. It concludes by proposing a new method for measuring real exchange rate misalignment based on differences in marginal products between producers of tradable and non-tradable goods.

Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries

Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries
Author: Sebastian Edwards
Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press
Total Pages: 110
Release: 1988
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Download Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchange rates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomic policies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchange rate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates; floating nominal rates; and dual or black market nominal exchange rates. This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policies often lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures, including nominal devaluation and several alternative approaches, are then evaluated.

Estimating the Half-Life of Theoretically Founded Real Exchange Rate Misalignments

Estimating the Half-Life of Theoretically Founded Real Exchange Rate Misalignments
Author: Megumi Kubota
Publisher:
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

Download Estimating the Half-Life of Theoretically Founded Real Exchange Rate Misalignments Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper models empirically the short and long-term behavior of the real exchange rate misalignment -- a key variable in academic and policy circles. The equilibrium real exchange rate is derived from a theoretical model with intertemporal external equilibrium and internal equilibrium (in traded and non-traded markets) based on the current account dynamics and Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson productivity, respectively. This provides a bridge between theory and empirics that links the real exchange rate and its fundamentals (terms of trade, the ratio of net foreign assets to gross domestic product, and productivity differentials). The paper contributes to the literature by: (a) estimating an unrestricted vector error correction model that examines the short-term dynamics of real exchange rate misalignments and links these deviations with shocks to fundamentals from 1970 to 2010, and (b) computing the speed of reversion of real exchange rate misalignments with respect to a fundamentals-based equilibrium level. The paper reconciles two strands of the empirical literature that estimate the half-life of purchasing power parity deviations: one, the linear adjustment model that renders the consensus half-life estimates of purchasing power parity deviations, and another, the non-linear adjustment model of purchasing power parity deviations. The model estimates the half-life of real exchange rate deviations from their fundamental equilibrium at approximately 2.8 years. Consequently, about 25 percent of the real exchange rate deviation from its equilibrium level is corrected in the next year. Approximately 43 percent of the countries in the sample have a half-life of real exchange rate deviations from equilibrium less than 2.5 years -- which is consistent with predictions from non-linear mean reversion models.

Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth

Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth
Author: Ofair Razin
Publisher:
Total Pages: 44
Release: 1997
Genre: Economic development
ISBN:

Download Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment is now a standard concept in international macroeconomic theory and policy. However, there is neither a consensus indicator of misalignment, nor an agreed upon methodology for constructing such an indicator. This paper constructs an indicator of RER misalignment for a large sample of developed and developing countries. This indicator is based on a well-structured but simple extension of an IS-LM model of an open economy. The paper then uses regression analysis to explore whether RER misalignments are related to country growth experiences. Interestingly the work finds that there are important non-linearities in the relationship. Only very high over-valuations" appear to be associated with slower economic growth, while moderate to high (but not very high) under-valuations appear to be associated with more rapid economic growth.

Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Equilibrium Exchange Rates
Author: Ronald MacDonald
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 353
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9401144117

Download Equilibrium Exchange Rates Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.

Exchange Rate Misalignment

Exchange Rate Misalignment
Author: Lawrence E. Hinkle
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 640
Release: 1999
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Download Exchange Rate Misalignment Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The study cautiously identifies exchange rate misalignment as an important element in most of the exchange rate crises that plagued the developing world during the last decade. Given that the increasing integration of world capital markets, has escalated the costs of such crises, a broad consensus emerged in recent years, that the overriding objective of exchange rate policy in developing countries, should be to avoid episodes of prolonged, and substantial misalignment, i.e., situations in which the actual real exchange rate differs significantly from its long-run equilibrium value. It was the Bank's involvement in one such misalignment episode, that eventually led to this book. Following an overview on the concepts and measurement of exchange rate misalignment, its impact on the purchasing power parity, and the relationship between the external real exchange rate (RER), and the two-good internal RER for tradables non-tradables, the study presents methodologies - empirical applications - for estimating the RER equilibrium. The study reaches an optimistic conclusion - that enough is known to identify cases of misalignment, and be able to sound clear warning signals. The implication for exchange rate policy is that ignorance about the empirical value of the equilibrium exchange rate, cannot be used to clinch arguments for extreme exchange arrangements, such as clean floats, currency boards, and "dollarization."