Complex Dynamics in the Spread of COVID-19

Complex Dynamics in the Spread of COVID-19
Author: Sebastian Antonio Contreras Gonzalez
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre:
ISBN:

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The COVID-19 pandemic is the most recent example that infectious diseases can disrupt and permanently alter how societies work and interact. This manuscript builds around a series of papers studying disease spread from the point of view of dynamical systems, using the COVID-19 pandemic as a working example. We first study the effect of including test-trace-and-isolate policies in compartmental models and describe their dynamical regimes. We find two tipping points between controlled and uncontrolled spread, defining a novel stable regime at low case numbers where long-term pandemic control ...

Covid-19

Covid-19
Author: Alfredo Morales
Publisher:
Total Pages: 275
Release: 2021-05
Genre:
ISBN:

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This STEM Volume gathers a selection of research papers on COVID-19 using a complex systems approach. Methods include agent-based models, cellular automata, networks, population dynamics, spatial-temporal patterns, risk management, analysis of fat-tails, data analysis and visualization. A few examples are as follows: (i) Discussion about policies and strategies against outbreaks in the context of uncertainty and incomplete information. (ii) Analysis of on the importance of proper understanding of probability and its role in decision-making against a contagion outbreak. (iii) Different approaches to model the spread of a virus in a population using simulations. (iv) Applications with observational data to include natural patterns of human behavior into modeling and decision-making frameworks.

The Complex Alternative

The Complex Alternative
Author: David C. Krakauer
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2021-11
Genre:
ISBN: 9781947864405

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Covid-19

Covid-19
Author: Alfredo J Morales
Publisher:
Total Pages: 276
Release: 2021-05-05
Genre:
ISBN: 9780578912004

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This STEM Volume gathers a selection of research papers on COVID-19 using a complex systems approach. Methods include agent-based models, cellular automata, networks, population dynamics, spatial-temporal patterns, risk management, analysis of fat-tails, data analysis and visualization. A few examples are: (i) Discussions about policies and strategies against outbreaks in the context of uncertainty and incomplete information. (ii) Analysis and proper understanding of probability and its role in decision-making against contagion outbreaks. (iii) Different approaches to model the spread of a virus in a population using simulations. (iv) Applications with observational data to include natural patterns of human behavior into modeling and decision-making frameworks.

Coupled Dynamics of the Spread of COVID-19, Interventions and Human Behaviour

Coupled Dynamics of the Spread of COVID-19, Interventions and Human Behaviour
Author: Emil Iftekhar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2024
Genre:
ISBN:

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The COVID-19 pandemic has presented an unprecedented challenge to global health, prompting a need for comprehensive research into the coupled dynamics of virus spread, intervention strategies, and human behavior. This dissertation provides a significant contribution to our understanding of these interconnected dynamics. We begin by establishing a theoretical framework for analyzing stability in dynamical systems. With a bedrock of theoretical understanding, the dissertation advances into the practical realm, scrutinizing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. An expert consultation ...

Advanced Applications of Fractional Differential Operators to Science and Technology

Advanced Applications of Fractional Differential Operators to Science and Technology
Author: Matouk, Ahmed Ezzat
Publisher: IGI Global
Total Pages: 401
Release: 2020-04-24
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1799831248

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Fractional-order calculus dates to the 19th century but has been resurrected as a prevalent research subject due to its provision of more adequate and realistic descriptions of physical aspects within the science and engineering fields. What was once a classical form of mathematics is currently being reintroduced as a new modeling technique that engineers and scientists are finding modern uses for. There is a need for research on all facets of these fractional-order systems and studies of its potential applications. Advanced Applications of Fractional Differential Operators to Science and Technology provides emerging research exploring the theoretical and practical aspects of novel fractional modeling and related dynamical behaviors as well as its applications within the fields of physical sciences and engineering. Featuring coverage on a broad range of topics such as chaotic dynamics, ecological models, and bifurcation control, this book is ideally designed for engineering professionals, mathematicians, physicists, analysts, researchers, educators, and students seeking current research on fractional calculus and other applied mathematical modeling techniques.

Asymptomatic

Asymptomatic
Author: Joshua S. Weitz
Publisher: JHU Press
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2024-10-22
Genre: Medical
ISBN: 1421450496

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The riveting account of how asymptomatic transmission drove COVID-19's global spread and catalyzed interventions to control it. Why was COVID-19 so difficult to contain and so devastating to people and economies worldwide? In Asymptomatic, author Joshua S. Weitz explains how silent transmission enabled COVID-19's massive and tragic global impact. Weaving the science of viral infections together with an insider's look at response efforts, Weitz guides readers through the shockwaves of successive epidemic waves as public health officials and academic research teams confronted the rise and risk of what was then a burgeoning global pandemic. The discovery of asymptomatic spread also fueled competing narratives: either COVID-19 was about to dissipate as quickly as it had emerged or completely disrupt life as we knew it. Weitz, a physicist-turned-biologist who directs a quantitative viral dynamics research group and has been immersed in COVID-19 response efforts, explains both why and how scientists tried to wade through competing narratives and warn the public of COVID-19's profound risk. As explored through a careful analysis of local outbreaks, accessible descriptions of virus dynamics, and the use of predictive models to guide response efforts, Asymptomatic provides readers a unique look into the secret ingredient that allowed COVID-19 to spread across borders and the high-impact interventions needed to fight it and future pandemics.

Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference

Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference
Author: Tom Britton
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 474
Release: 2019-11-30
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3030309002

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Focussing on stochastic models for the spread of infectious diseases in a human population, this book is the outcome of a two-week ICPAM/CIMPA school on "Stochastic models of epidemics" which took place in Ziguinchor, Senegal, December 5–16, 2015. The text is divided into four parts, each based on one of the courses given at the school: homogeneous models (Tom Britton and Etienne Pardoux), two-level mixing models (David Sirl and Frank Ball), epidemics on graphs (Viet Chi Tran), and statistics for epidemic models (Catherine Larédo). The CIMPA school was aimed at PhD students and Post Docs in the mathematical sciences. Parts (or all) of this book can be used as the basis for traditional or individual reading courses on the topic. For this reason, examples and exercises (some with solutions) are provided throughout.

COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics

COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics
Author: Igor Nesteruk
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 172
Release: 2021-02-10
Genre: Science
ISBN: 9813364165

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This book highlights the estimate of epidemic characteristics for different countries/regions in the world with the use of known SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model for the dynamics of the epidemic, the known exact solution of the linear differential equations and statistical approach developed before. The COVID-19 pandemic is of great interest to researchers due to its high mortality and a negative impact to the world economy. Correct simulation of the pandemic dynamics needs complicated mathematical models and many efforts for unknown parameters identification. The simple method of detection of the new pandemic wave is proposed and SIR model generalized. The hidden periods, epidemic durations, final numbers of cases, the effective reproduction numbers and probabilities of meeting an infected person are presented for countries like USA, Germany, UK, the Republic of Korea, Italy, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, and for the world. The presented information is useful to regulate the quarantine activities and to predict the medical and economic consequences of different/future pandemics.