Commodity-price Comovement and Global Economic Activity

Commodity-price Comovement and Global Economic Activity
Author: Ron Alquist
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2014
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

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Guided by a macroeconomic model in which commodity prices are endogenously determined, we apply a new factor-based identification strategy to decompose the historical sources of changes in commodity prices and global economic activity. The model yields a factor structure for commodity prices and identification conditions that provide the factors with an economic interpretation: one factor captures the combined contribution of shocks that affect commodity markets only through general-equilibrium forces. Applied to a cross-section of commodity prices since 1968, the theoretical restrictions are consistent with the data and yield structural interpretations of the common factors in commodity prices. Commodity-related shocks have contributed modestly to global economic fluctuations.

Commodity Price Co-movement and Global Economic Activity

Commodity Price Co-movement and Global Economic Activity
Author: Ron Alquist
Publisher:
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2014
Genre: Business cycles
ISBN:

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Guided by the predictions of a general-equilibrium macroeconomic model with commodity prices, we apply a new factor-based identification strategy to decompose the historical sources of changes in commodity prices and global economic activity. The model yields a factor structure for commodity prices in which the factors have an economic interpretation: one factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks that affect commodity markets only through general equilibrium effects while other factors represent direct shocks to commodity markets. The model also provides identification conditions to recover the structural interpretation from a factor decomposition of commodity prices. We apply these methods to a cross-section of real commodity prices since 1968. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis indicates that commodity-related shocks have contributed only modestly to global business cycle fluctuations.

The Comovement in Commodity Prices

The Comovement in Commodity Prices
Author: Mr.Ron Alquist
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 63
Release: 2013-06-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484378148

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We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on commodity markets other than through general equilibrium effects on output, while other factors represent direct commodity shocks. Thus, the factor structure provides a decomposition of underlying structural shocks. The theory also provides guidance on how empirical factors can be rotated to identify the structural factors. We apply factor analysis and the identification conditions implied by the model to a cross-section of real non-energy commodity prices. The theoretical restrictions implied by the model are consistent with the data and thus yield a structural interpretation of the common factors in commodity prices. The analysis suggests that commodity-related shocks have generally played a limited role in global business cycle fluctuations.

The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks

The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks
Author: Mikidadu Mohammed
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 215
Release: 2021-11-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1000485129

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The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.

A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy

A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy
Author: Marian Radetzki
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 331
Release: 2020-11-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1108841546

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Revised edition of A handbook of primary commodities in the global economy, 2017.

Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries

Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 408
Release: 2012-10-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475545193

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In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.

A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy

A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy
Author: Marian Radetzki
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 331
Release: 2020-11-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1108896286

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The dramatic price falls of 2014–2015 marked the end of the most powerful and enduring commodity boom since the Second World War. Now in its third edition, this book acts as a guide to the ins and outs of the primary commodity universe. Updates to this edition reflect on the consequences of both China's economic slowdown as its industrialization enters a new, less commodity demanding phase, and changes in the USA's trade policy under the Trump administration. Additionally, this edition takes into account recent developments in world oil markets and examines the effects of increased climate concerns. The authors introduce and explain pertinent issues surrounding international commodity markets such as the global geography of raw materials, price formation, price trends, the role of commodity exchanges, the threat of depletion, cartel action, state ownership, emerging commodity nationalism and more.

Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility

Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility
Author: Isabelle Piot-Lepetit
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 238
Release: 2011-06-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1441976345

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This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.

Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics

Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics
Author: Stephan Pfaffenzeller
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 197
Release: 2018-01-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 131748360X

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The early 21st century has seen a prolonged price boom in non-fuel commodities, coupled with a volatile performance in fuel prices. This new collection presents the latest research on commodity prices and economic development in the context of this changing globalized economy. Global Commodity Markets and Development Economics brings together analyses from a number of perspectives in order to explore commodity price developments. Chapters explore long term commodity trends, the evolution of relative price developments, the relationship of the domestic commodity sector with global supply chains, agri-food prices, and the role of oil markets in the global economy. Through considering a diverse range of countries including China, Russia and the United States, the authors examine key fuel and non-fuel commodity markets and offer a window into important trends and developments. This book will be relevant to those with an interest in development economics, international economics and energy markets.